Ambac's fall
Ambac倒闭
And then there was one
已成过去
The bond-insurance industry struggles for survival
债券保险业挣扎求存
Nov 4th 2010
AMERICA’S municipal-bond market is worth around $2.8 trillion. But “monoline” insurers, which insure municipal bonds issued by American cities and counties, are barely breathing. On November 1st the industry edged closer to extinction when one of the largest bond insurers, Ambac, announced that it would skip an interest payment. The company could file for bankruptcy by the end of the month.
美国的市政债券市场市值约为2.8万亿。但为美国市县所发市政债券提供保险的单一险种保险公司只能苟延残喘。11月1日，当最大的债券保险公司之一Ambac宣布停付一期利息时，这个行业离灰飞烟灭又近了一点。该公司月底前可能申请破产。
It didn’t need an oracle to predict Ambac’s demise. Earlier this year a state regulator siphoned off some of Ambac’s most toxic assets and put them into “rehabilitation”. Ambac has over $1.6 billion in debt, but only $76m in cash and short-term securities. One of its most coveted assets is its $7 billion “net operating loss tax carry forward”, which could translate into $2.5 billion in tax savings if it ever manages to turn a profit. Rob Haines of CreditSights, a research firm, does not think it will: “Ambac is a dying company with a finite life.”
预测Ambac的破产并非难事。今年早些时候，一家州监管机构抽取Ambac的一些最为不良的资产，将它们投入“改造”。Ambac欠下超过16亿美元的债务，但只有7.6千万的现金和短期证券。该公司最遭人觊觎的资产之一是其70亿美元的“净营业损失免税金额”，如果该公司有机会盈利，该免税金额可转换成25亿美元的节税金额。CreditSights研究公司的罗布?海恩斯（Rob Haines）认为Ambac不会盈利：“Ambac时日无多了。”
The prospects for other monoline insurers look equally bleak. The industry got going in the 1970s and at first provided insurance only for municipal-bond issuers, which rarely defaulted. Over the past decade, however, the industry has branched out into structured products, such as risky mortgage-backed securities and collateralised-debt obligations. Big mistake. When subprime mortgages soured, bond insurers such as Ambac and MBIA, another embattled monoline, were on the hook to pay up. Their credit ratings dropped, which meant issuers were less willing to buy insurance from them.
其他单一险种保险公司的前景看来一样惨淡。这个行业始于20世纪70年代，起出只为很少违约的市政债券发行人提供保险。但过去十年，这个行业涉足结构化产品，如高风险的按揭贷款支持证券和抵押债务债券。大错特错。当次级房贷恶化时，Ambac和MBIA（另一家处境艰难的单一险种保险公司）等债券保险公司拖延偿还欠款。它们的信用等级下降，意味着发行人更不愿意向它们买保险。
In 2005 bond insurers covered around 57% of new bond issuance, but now they cover a mere 7% or so. Only one monoline remains active: Assured Guaranty, which sat out most of the structured stampede. All its pre-crisis peers are either being restructured, face litigation or are out of business. Even Warren Buffett, who entered the bond-insurance market in 2008, has pulled back. “We’re like an only child,” says Dominic Frederico, the boss of Assured Guaranty. “We don’t have anybody to play with but all the toys are ours.” Still, life isn’t all fun and games. Standard & Poor’s, a ratings agency, last month stripped the firm of its AAA rating.
2005年，债券保险公司覆盖了大约57%的新债券保险，但现在它们仅覆盖大约7%。只有一家单一险种保险公司仍有活力：对结构化浪潮浅尝辄止的Assured Guaranty。它在危机之前的所有同行要么正在重组，要么面临诉讼，要么破产。即使是2008年进入债券保险市场的沃伦?巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也撤出。“我们就像独生子，” Assured Guaranty的老板多米尼克?弗雷德里克（Dominic Frederico）说，“我们没有玩伴，但所有玩具都是我们的。”然而，生活并非只有欢乐与游戏。评级机构标准普尔上月剥夺了该企业的AAA等级。
Some still believe there is hope for the industry. The National League of Cities, a non-profit organisation, thinks there should be a mutual insurance company owned and operated by local governments. But monolines will have to embrace a new model to succeed. Stanislas Rouyer of Moody’s, another ratings agency, says monolines need to emphasise that they provide not just insurance but also monitoring and surveillance capabilities. This would enable them to sell their wares directly to retail investors, who account for 36% of the buyer base for municipal bonds.
一些人仍然认为这个行业还有希望。非营利组织全国城市联盟（National League of Cities）认为应有一家由地方政府拥有和运营的互助保险公司。但单一险种保险公司将不得不采用新模式以求成功。另一家评级机构穆迪公司（Moody’s）的斯丹尼斯拉斯?劳耶尔（Stanislas Rouyer）表示单一险种保险公司需要强调它们不仅提供保险，而且具备监控和监督的能力。这样做将使它们能够直接向占市政债券买家基数36%的散户销售产品。
There are other hurdles to jump first. The shaky finances of some municipalities could put what’s left of the industry to another huge test. Fragile issuers and nervous investors ought to be a boon to insurers. But mass defaults by cities and counties could be the final blow for Assured Guaranty and its zombie peers.
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