城市化的“省油经”

China's urbanisation, shifting millions of farmhands into factories, is a big reason why the oil price has risen sixfold over the past 10 years. China is not about to send everyone back to the land. So what is the solution to surging oil prices? One way, oddly enough, is to build more cities – or, at least, better ones. GaveKal, a research company, estimates that, of the roughly 85m barrels of oil the world consumes every day, just over one third is burned as petrol in vehicles taking city dwellers from point A to point B. This presents a huge opportunity on two fronts.

In the developing world, new cities can be planned smarter, making use of mass transit systems. In the developed world the issue is more complex, as people used to driving across sprawling suburbs have to adapt their lifestyles. But consider that, in the 2000 US census, about three-quarters of respondents said they drove alone to work and a similar proportion reached work within 20 minutes. Clearly, that is a lot of cars that could be off the road if a decent alternative existed. Europe, notably, has ploughed more investment into public transportation and taxed petrol at a much higher rate and still consumes less oil than it did when the last oil shock struck 29 years ago. Has its standard of living declined since then?

Another 18m b/d of global oil consumption goes on heating, cooling and lighting buildings. Again, denser urbanisation using better insulation and design would cut into that. Switching to electricity fired by fuels other than oil in regions such as the Middle East would accelerate the process. Altogether, therefore, roughly half of the world's oil consumption is used in areas where changes in behaviour, while disruptive for some and involving time-lags, are eminently possible. No wonder Saudi Arabia is anxious to cool oil prices.

中国的城市化把数百万农田变为工厂，也是油价在过去10年上涨6倍的一大原因。中国不会让大家都回去务农，那么如何解决油价飙升问题呢？说来奇怪，有一个方法是建设更多的城市——或者至少是更好的城市。据研究公司GaveKal估计，全球每日消耗的大约8500万桶石油中，略多于三分之一是作为汽油烧掉的，供城市居民乘车从一地去往另一地。这意味着在两个方面存在巨大的机会。

在发展中国家，可以公共交通系统，对新建城市进行更合理的规划。在发达国家，问题复杂一些，那些习惯驾车穿越广阔郊外的人必须改变生活方式。但要考虑到以下情况：美国在2000年进行了一项调查，约四分之三的受访者表示，他们一个人开车去上班；有相近比例的人在20分钟内到达上班地点。显然，如果有其他合适的选择，就可以在公路上减少许多汽车。欧洲在公共交通上明显投入了更多资金，并对汽油征收更高的税率，目前它的石油消耗量低于29年前的上次石油危机期间。与那时相比，它的生活标准下降了吗？

全球每日消耗的另外1800万桶石油，是用在建筑取暖、制冷和照明上。同样，发展人口更为密集的城市，采用更好的绝缘材料，并进行更合理的设计，将会降低这部分消耗。在中东等地区，弃用石油，改用燃料发电，也将有利于减少消耗。总的来看，在全球消耗的石油中，一半左右是用在人们行为极有可能得到改变之处。这种改变需要时间，对某些方面而言也会是破坏性的。难怪沙特着急为油价降温。