为什么中国对石油的需求将放缓?

In past China is one of the top consumer of Oil from the world but now we have observed a downward movement of demand of oil by china. This article is trying to address the question why China demand for oil set to slow? 中国过去是世界上最大的石油消费国之一，但现在我们看到中国对石油的需求呈下降趋势。本文试图解决的问题是，为什么中国对石油的需求将放缓?

Despite oil demand rising 5.5 percent year-on-year to 11.77 million barrels per day in 2017, oil consumption, including gasoline and diesel, is expected to fall gradually over the next five to seven years due to growth in alternative and renewable fuels, expansion of vehicle sharing, increasing ethanol-based gasoline supply, as well as expansion of high-speed rail networks. More interestingly we have collected some data to analyze the stand of China in the world oil market.尽管2017年石油需求同比上升5.5%到1177万桶,石油消费,包括汽油和柴油,预计未来五至七年内逐渐下降。原因是可替代和可再生燃料的增长,扩大汽车共享,增加乙醇作为动力汽油供应,以及高速铁路网络的扩张。更有趣的是，我们收集了一些数据来分析中国在世界石油市场上的地位。

China's shift from quantity to quality, improved energy efficiency and tight environmental control will further cap oil consumption. Wang Lu, Asia-Pacific oil and gas analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the slowing growth rate is mostly due to alternative fuel vehicles, which has in turn dented China's transport oil demand. 中国从数量向质量的转变、能源效率的提高和严格的环境控制将进一步限制石油消费。彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)亚太油气分析师王璐表示，增长放缓主要是由于电力替代燃料汽车，这进而削弱了中国的交通用油需求。

World Oil price ($) from January 2005 to January 2019

2005年1月至2019年1月的世界石油价格($)

The above graph has shown the daily price of Crude oil from 2005 to January 2019 and we can observe that it is highly volatile. On January 2008 it was recorded highest as $142 per barrel whereas on January 2016 it was recorded as lowest as $35 per barrel. Also we can see that from December 2018 to January 2019 the crude oil price is going down and expected to go down further. There is a slowdown of oil prices at recent time in the world market which is because of mismatching demand and supply side.

上图显示的是2005年至2019年1月的原油日价格，我们可以观察到它的波动性很大。2008年1月，油价创下每桶142美元的最高纪录，而2016年1月，油价跌至每桶35美元的最低纪录。我们还可以看到，从2018年12月到2019年1月，原油价格正在下跌，预计还会进一步下跌。近年来，国际市场油价出现回落，主要是供需矛盾造成的。

Volatility in the World Oil Price (%) from January 2005 to January 2019

2005年1月至2019年1月世界油价波动(%)

Also as far as volatility in the oil price is concerned we can observe that from the above graph that the oil price is highly volatile during January 2005 to January 2019. The change in the oil prices was big during 2009. 此外，就石油价格的波动性而言，我们可以从上面的图表中看出，在2005年1月至2019年1月期间，石油价格波动很大。2009年油价的变化很大。

VVolatility in the World Oil Price (%) from January 2005 to January 2019

2005年1月至2019年1月世界油价波动(%)

Also as far as volatility in the oil price is concerned we can observe that from the above graph that the oil price is highly volatile during January 2005 to January 2019. The change in the oil prices was big during 2009. 此外，就石油价格的波动性而言，我们可以从上面的图表中看出，在2005年1月至2019年1月期间，石油价格波动很大。2009年油价的变化很大。

The above graph shows the volatility in the oil price in China from 1980 to 2017 annually. We can observe that the change was much larger during 2002 when Chinese economy is boosting and demand more fuel for better transportation and growth in the economy. But it seems less volatile after 2010 because China's shift from quantity to quality, improved energy efficiency and tight environmental control will further cap oil consumption. According to Li Li, energy research director at ICIS China, despite the fact that peak consumption of oil is yet to come and gasoline and diesel are still dominant in the transportation sector, consumption growth has been slowing in recent years. 上图为1980年至2017年中国石油价格的年度波动情况。我们可以看到，这种变化在2002年更大，当时中国经济正在增长，需要更多的燃料来改善交通和经济增长。但在2010年之后，油价的波动性似乎有所减弱，因为中国从数量转向质量、能源效率的提高和严格的环境控制将进一步限制石油消费。ICIS中国能源研究主管李丽表示，尽管石油消费尚未见顶，汽油和柴油仍在交通领域占据主导地位，但近年来消费增长一直在放缓。。

If we look at the top 10 oil consuming countries in the world then China Stand in the 3rd position with annual consumption of 13,226,000 barrel per day in 2017. This amount itself is self-substantial and According to S&P Global Platts China Oil Analytics, apparent oil demand is expected to rise by 500,000 barrels per day in 2018, equivalent to year-on-year growth of 4.2 percent. 如果我们看一下世界十大石油消费国，那么中国将以2017年每天1322.6万桶的消费量排名第三。这一数字本身是相当可观的，根据标准普尔全球普氏中国石油分析公司(S&P Global Platts China Oil Analytics)的数据，2018年的表观石油需求预计将增加50万桶/天，相当于同比增长4.2%。

Top 10 Oil Consumption Countries in the world世界十大石油消费国

But the below figure shows the change in the consumption of gasoline( blue color) and change in the consumption of Diesel (red color) in the last three months and we have observed that China demand for gasoline changes only 5.4% while the change in diesel is 6.1% in the last three months. The slowing growth rate is mostly due to alternative fuel vehicles, which has in turn dented China's transport oil demand. China's oil demand will drop and gasoline consumption will weaken in the 2018-20 period, due to surging sales of alternative-fuel vehicles. 但下面图中显示汽油消费的变化(蓝色)和改变柴油的消耗(红色)在过去三个月,我们发现,只有5.4%的中国对汽油的需求变化而改变柴油6.1%在过去的三个月。增长放缓主要是由于替代燃料汽车，这反过来又削弱了中国的交通用油需求。由于替代燃料汽车销量的激增，中国的石油需求将在2018-20年期间下降，汽油消费将会减弱。