48条权术 (评论: The 48 Laws of Power)

跟Machiavelli The prince 和孙子兵法都很类似。作者的33 strategies of war也是类似的论调。那本跟孙子兵法就更像了。读来也不想玩弄权术，防止自己被权术玩弄就好了。另外也让我想起办公室厚黑学。
　　
　　以下是来自http://www2.tech.purdue.edu/cg/courses/cgt411/covey/48_laws_of_power.htm
　　我简单加了几句中文
　　====================================================================
　　
　　Law 1 不让领导觉得你比他牛。随时展现谦逊，和deference. 不然就自寻死路
　　
　　Never Outshine the Master
　　
　　Always make those above you feel comfortably superior. In your desire to please or impress them, do not go too far in displaying your talents or you might accomplish the opposite – inspire fear and insecurity. Make your masters appear more brilliant than they are and you will attain the heights of power.
　　
　　Law 2 别过分信任朋友，因为朋友知道你太多秘密和弱点，一旦想出卖你，你就死定了，要学习利用敌人，因为敌人不会认为你的信任是应该的(take for granted)。没有直接敌人，就去创造敌人。
　　
　　Never put too Much Trust in Friends, Learn how to use Enemies
　　
　　Be wary of friends-they will betray you more quickly, for they are easily aroused to envy. They also become spoiled and tyrannical. But hire a former enemy and he will be more loyal than a friend, because he has more to prove. In fact, you have more to fear from friends than from enemies. If you have no enemies, find a way to make them.
　　
　　Law 3 欲盖弥彰
　　
　　Conceal your Intentions
　　
　　Keep people off-balance and in the dark by never revealing the purpose behind your actions. If they have no clue what you are up to, they cannot prepare a defense. Guide them far enough down the wrong path, envelope them in enough smoke, and by the time they realize your intentions, it will be too late.
　　
　　Law 4 三缄其口
　　
　　Always Say Less than Necessary
　　
　　When you are trying to impress people with words, the more you say, the more common you appear, and the less in control. Even if you are saying something banal, it will seem original if you make it vague, open-ended, and sphinxlike. Powerful people impress and intimidate by saying less. The more you say, the more likely you are to say something foolish.
　　
　　Law 5 玩命维护自己的声望，制造牛逼的声望让敌人望风而逃。
　　
　　So Much Depends on Reputation – Guard it with your Life
　　
　　Reputation is the cornerstone of power. Through reputation alone you can intimidate and win; once you slip, however, you are vulnerable, and will be attacked on all sides. Make your reputation unassailable. Always be alert to potential attacks and thwart them before they happen. Meanwhile, learn to destroy your enemies by opening holes in their own reputations. Then stand aside and let public opinion hang them.
　　
　　Law 6 这个有点像celebrity喜欢说的all publicity is good publicity. 不要泯然众人状要尽量显眼（这个似乎跟Law 1有抵触）。
　　
　　Court Attention at all Cost
　　
　　Everything is judged by its appearance; what is unseen counts for nothing. Never let yourself get lost in the crowd, then, or buried in oblivion. Stand out. Be conspicuous, at all cost. Make yourself a magnet of attention by appearing larger, more colorful, more mysterious, than the bland and timid masses.
　　
　　 Law 7 利用别人来做事，但是要把革命成果据为己有(这个让我们想起了什么呢。。。）
　　
　　Get others to do the Work for you, but Always Take the Credit
　　
　　Use the wisdom, knowledge, and legwork of other people to further your own cause. Not only will such assistance save you valuable time and energy, it will give you a godlike aura of efficiency and speed. In the end your helpers will be forgotten and you will be remembered. Never do yourself what others can do for you.
　　
　　Law 8 吸引对方出击，自己就掌握了真正的主动权
　　
　　Make other People come to you – use Bait if Necessary
　　
　　When you force the other person to act, you are the one in control. It is always better to make your opponent come to you, abandoning his own plans in the process. Lure him with fabulous gains – then attack. You hold the cards.
　　
　　Law 9 争论（空谈）无益，用行动来赢得胜利。
　　
　　Win through your Actions, Never through Argument
　　
　　Any momentary triumph you think gained through argument is really a Pyrrhic victory: The resentment and ill will you stir up is stronger and lasts longer than any momentary change of opinion. It is much more powerful to get others to agree with you through your actions, without saying a word. Demonstrate, do not explicate.
　　
　　Law 10 远离那些郁郁寡欢的人，或者老是遭遇不幸的人。
　　
　　Infection: Avoid the Unhappy and Unlucky
　　
　　You can die from someone else’s misery – emotional states are as infectious as disease. You may feel you are helping the drowning man but you are only precipitating your own disaster. The unfortunate sometimes draw misfortune on themselves; they will also draw it on you. Associate with the happy and fortunate instead.
　　
　　Law 11 让人们依赖你，但是自己一定要独立不依赖别人。别把别人教的翅膀硬了就单飞了。
　　
　　Learn to Keep People Dependent on You
　　
　　To maintain your independence you must always be needed and wanted. The more you are relied on, the more freedom you have. Make people depend on you for their happiness and prosperity and you have nothing to fear. Never teach them enough so that they can do without you.
　　
　　Law 12 在不重要的方面给一些诚实的信息或者慷慨解囊，来让对方放松警惕。这个主要是用来行骗的。
　　
　　Use Selective Honesty and Generosity to Disarm your Victim
　　
　　One sincere and honest move will cover over dozens of dishonest ones. Open-hearted gestures of honesty and generosity bring down the guard of even the most suspicious people. Once your selective honesty opens a hole in their armor, you can deceive and manipulate them at will. A timely gift – a Trojan horse – will serve the same purpose.
　　
　　Law 13 在寻求帮助的时候，不要寄希望于对方的无私啦，对自己的亏欠之类，要让对方从此次交易里面看见对自己有利可图。
　　
　　When Asking for Help, Appeal to People’s Self-Interest,
　　
　　Never to their Mercy or Gratitude
　　
　　If you need to turn to an ally for help, do not bother to remind him of your past assistance and good deeds. He will find a way to ignore you. Instead, uncover something in your request, or in your alliance with him, that will benefit him, and emphasize it out of all proportion. He will respond enthusiastically when he sees something to be gained for himself.
　　
　　Law 14 假装友好来接近别人，刺探别人的情报。
　　
　　Pose as a Friend, Work as a Spy
　　
　　Knowing about your rival is critical. Use spies to gather valuable information that will keep you a step ahead. Better still: Play the spy yourself. In polite social encounters, learn to probe. Ask indirect questions to get people to reveal their weaknesses and intentions. There is no occasion that is not an opportunity for artful spying.
　　
　　Law 15 “痛打落水狗，打死老虎”，别给敌人重新翻身的机会
　　
　　Crush your Enemy Totally
　　
　　All great leaders since Moses have known that a feared enemy must be crushed completely. (Sometimes they have learned this the hard way.) If one ember is left alight, no matter how dimly it smolders, a fire will eventually break out. More is lost through stopping halfway than through total annihilation: The enemy will recover, and will seek revenge. Crush him, not only in body but in spirit.
　　
　　Law 16 在别人离不开你的时候，故意离开下来显示自己多么的重要。
　　
　　Use Absence to Increase Respect and Honor
　　
　　Too much circulation makes the price go down: The more you are seen and heard from, the more common you appear. If you are already established in a group, temporary withdrawal from it will make you more talked about, even more admired. You must learn when to leave. Create value through scarcity.
　　
　　Law 17 故意让环境变得无法预测，让人们充满疑虑来动摇人心。（恐怖主义）
　　
　　Keep Others in Suspended Terror: Cultivate an Air of Unpredictability
　　
　　Humans are creatures of habit with an insatiable need to see familiarity in other people’s actions. Your predictability gives them a sense of control. Turn the tables: Be deliberately unpredictable. Behavior that seems to have no consistency or purpose will keep them off-balance, and they will wear themselves out trying to explain your moves. Taken to an extreme, this strategy can intimidate and terrorize.
　　
　　Law 18 不要修坚固的城墙来保护自己，孤立是危险的（参见长城，和闭关锁国政策）应该广结交，找同盟，了解别人的动向，在人群里面保护自己。
　　
　　Do Not Build Fortresses to Protect Yourself – Isolation is Dangerous
　　
　　The world is dangerous and enemies are everywhere – everyone has to protect themselves. A fortress seems the safest. But isolation exposes you to more dangers than it protects you from – it cuts you off from valuable information, it makes you conspicuous and an easy target. Better to circulate among people find allies, mingle. You are shielded from your enemies by the crowd.
　　
　　Law 19 搞清楚环境状况，不要不小心得罪低调的牛人。
　　
　　Know Who You’re Dealing with – Do Not Offend the Wrong Person
　　
　　There are many different kinds of people in the world, and you can never assume that everyone will react to your strategies in the same way. Deceive or outmaneuver some people and they will spend the rest of their lives seeking revenge. They are wolves in lambs’ clothing. Choose your victims and opponents carefully, then – never offend or deceive the wrong person.
　　
　　Law 20 别随便站队，站错队就糗大了，最该站的队伍是自己这一队。
　　
　　Do Not Commit to Anyone
　　
　　It is the fool who always rushes to take sides. Do not commit to any side or cause but yourself. By maintaining your independence, you become the master of others – playing people against one another, making them pursue you.
　　
　　Law 21 大智若愚（？）假装比对方要笨，让对方觉得有便宜可占，然后自己从中牟利。
　　
　　Play a Sucker to Catch a Sucker – Seem Dumber than your Mark
　　
　　No one likes feeling stupider than the next persons. The trick, is to make your victims feel smart – and not just smart, but smarter than you are. Once convinced of this, they will never suspect that you may have ulterior motives.
　　
　　Law 22 不要随便当烈士，大丈夫能屈能伸。先投降保存实力，日后再战。君子报仇十年不晚
　　
　　Use the Surrender Tactic: Transform Weakness into Power
　　
　　When you are weaker, never fight for honor’s sake; choose surrender instead. Surrender gives you time to recover, time to torment and irritate your conqueror, time to wait for his power to wane. Do not give him the satisfaction of fighting and defeating you – surrender first. By turning the other check you infuriate and unsettle him. Make surrender a tool of power.
　　
　　Law 23 集中力量，不要分散精力。推及个人，一心不要二用。集中处理leverage最高的事情。
　　
　　Concentrate Your Forces
　　
　　Conserve your forces and energies by keeping them concentrated at their strongest point. You gain more by finding a rich mine and mining it deeper, than by flitting from one shallow mine to another – intensity defeats extensity every time. When looking for sources of power to elevate you, find the one key patron, the fat cow who will give you milk for a long time to come.
　　
　　Law 24 媚上欺下
　　
　　Play the Perfect Courtier
　　
　　The perfect courtier thrives in a world where everything revolves around power and political dexterity. He has mastered the art of indirection; he flatters, yields to superiors, and asserts power over others in the mot oblique and graceful manner. Learn and apply theLaws of courtiership and there will be no limit to how far you can rise in the court.
　　
　　Law 25 不要接受社会给的角色，创造自己的角色。
　　
　　Re-Create Yourself
　　
　　Do not accept the roles that society foists on you. Re-create yourself by forging a new identity, one that commands attention and never bores the audience. Be the master of your own image rather than letting others define if for you. Incorporate dramatic devices into your public gestures and actions – your power will be enhanced and your character will seem larger than life.
　　
　　Law 26 把过错推给别人-跟Law 7 利用别人做事有类似的地方。
　　
　　Keep Your Hands Clean
　　
　　You must seem a paragon of civility and efficiency: Your hands are never soiled by mistakes and nasty deeds. Maintain such a spotless appearance by using others as scapegoats and cat’s-paws to disguise your involvement.
　　
　　Law 27 利用人们希望相信好事情的心理，骗他们。（比如不用节食锻炼，额外吃某药就能模特身材，比如不需要努力赚钱省钱投资，只要选对几只股票就能发大财，比如天天酒肉夜夜笙歌，喝了某灵丹妙药就能青春健康）
　　
　　Play on People’s Need to Believe to Create a Cultlike Following
　　
　　People have an overwhelming desire to believe in something. Become the focal point of such desire by offering them a cause, a new faith to follow. Keep your words vague but full of promise; emphasize enthusiasm over rationality and clear thinking. Give your new disciples rituals to perform, ask them to make sacrifices on your behalf. In the absence of organized religion and grand causes, your new belief system will bring you untold power.
　　
　　Law 28 只有搞清楚状况后才行的。而一旦行的，就勇敢行动，不要犹豫不决。
　　　　
　　　　Enter Action with Boldness
　　　　
　　　　If you are unsure of a course of action, do not attempt it. Your doubts and hesitations will infect your execution. Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity. Everyone admires the bold; no one honors the timid.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 29 做计划的时候要预见下面的若干步，多做分析。 -- 这步在其他书里面被批过，事实如此多变，一直做计划，看穿几十年，计划到底，根本就不可能。
　　　　
　　　　Plan All the Way to the End
　　　　
　　　　The ending is everything. Plan all the way to it, taking into account all the possible consequences, obstacles, and twists of fortune that might reverse your hard work and give the glory to others. By planning to the end you will not be overwhelmed by circumstances and you will know when to stop. Gently guide fortune and help determine the future by thinking far ahead.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 30 假装你的成就来的很容易，让别人觉得你牛逼。在学校里面好像见过这样的人，在学校的时候拼命拉着别人一起玩，晚上回去使劲学，显得自己聪明。。。。额，幼稚。。。当然，似乎玩弄权术起来的确需要让别人觉得自己比实际上更牛逼。
　　　　
　　　　Make your Accomplishments Seem Effortless
　　　　
　　　　Your actions must seem natural and executed with ease. All the toil and practice that go into them, and also all the clever tricks, must be concealed. When you act, act effortlessly, as if you could do much more. Avoid the temptation of revealing how hard you work – it only raises questions. Teach no one your tricks or they will be used against you.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 31 减少对方的选择，但是仍然跟别人选择，这样别人还会觉得是自己主动做的决定而不是被迫的，这样将来反悔的可能就降低了。
　　　　
　　　　Control the Options: Get Others to Play with the Cards you Deal
　　　　
　　　　The best deceptions are the ones that seem to give the other person a choice: Your victims feel they are in control, but are actually your puppets. Give people options that come out in your favor whichever one they choose. Force them to make choices between the lesser of two evils, both of which serve your purpose. Put them on the horns of a dilemma: They are gored wherever they turn.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 32 前law27也说过，提出符合人们幻想的东西，骗人。
　　　　
　　　　Play to People’s Fantasies
　　　　
　　　　The truth is often avoided because it is ugly and unpleasant. Never appeal to truth and reality unless you are prepared for the anger that comes for disenchantment. Life is so harsh and distressing that people who can manufacture romance or conjure up fantasy are like oases in the desert: Everyone flocks to them. There is great power in tapping into the fantasies of the masses.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 33 打蛇打七寸。尽心刺探别人的机密，找出弱点，攻击其弱点。
　　　　
　　　　Discover Each Man’s Thumbscrew
　　　　
　　　　Everyone has a weakness, a gap in the castle wall. That weakness is usual y an insecurity, an uncontrollable emotion or need; it can also be a small secret pleasure. Either way, once found, it is a thumbscrew you can turn to your advantage.
　　 　　
　　　　 Law 34 自己显得牛逼，别人也就觉得你牛逼了。这点在其他书里面也有讲过。人们用来判断别人能力的指标其实不多，其中重要的一点就是对方的自信程度。虽然最牛和最次的人通常都很自信==自信v实际能力曲线是U型的。但是显得牛逼总归没错的。
　　　　
　　　　Be Royal in your Own Fashion: Act like a King to be treated like one
　　　　
　　　　The way you carry yourself will often determine how you are treated; In the long run, appearing vulgar or common will make people disrespect you. For a king respects himself and inspires the same sentiment in others. By acting regally and confident of your powers, you make yourself seem destined to wear a crown.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 35 要有耐心，不要显得急匆匆，-这个说起来容易，但是审时度势哪里有那么容易呢，不是很多专家的判断也都并不准确么，人们记忆中准确的判断也许是机缘巧合呢？
　　　　
　　　　Master the Art of Timing
　　　　
　　　　Never seem to be in a hurry – hurrying betrays a lack of control over yourself, and over time. Always seem patient, as if you know that everything will come to you eventually. Become a detective of the right moment; sniff out the spirit of the times, the trends that will carry you to power. Learn to stand back when the time is not yet ripe, and to strike fiercely when it has reached fruition.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 36 不要去酸葡萄，对于得不得的东西最好的对策是忽略之。- 这个倒很对，任何的反驳啊斗争啊都是助长对方气焰
　　　　
　　　　Disdain Things you cannot have: Ignoring them is the best Revenge
　　　　
　　　　By acknowledging a petty problem you give it existence and credibility. The more attention you pay an enemy, the stronger you make him; and a small mistake is often made worse and more visible when you try to fix it. It is sometimes best to leave things alone. If there is something you want but cannot have, show contempt for it. The less interest you reveal, the more superior you seem.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 37 要会作秀，用视觉盛宴来迷惑观众，然后暗度陈仓
　　　　
　　　　Create Compelling Spectacles
　　　　
　　　　Striking imagery and grand symbolic gestures create the aura of power – everyone responds to them. Stage spectacles for those around you, then full of arresting visuals and radiant symbols that heighten your presence. Dazzled by appearances, no one will notice what you are really doing.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 38 大隐隐于市。人可以有自己的想法，但是不要轻易表露，要行为上从众来迷惑大家，也避免因为自己独特的想法给自己带来麻烦。
　　　　
　　　　Think as you like but Behave like others
　　　　
　　　　If you make a show of going against the times, flaunting your unconventional ideas and unorthodox ways, people will think that you only want attention and that you look down upon them. They will find a way to punish you for making them feel inferior. It is far safer to blend in and nurture the common touch. Share your originality only with tolerant friends and those who are sure to appreciate your uniqueness.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 39 浑水摸鱼，呵呵。
　　　　
　　　　Stir up Waters to Catch Fish
　　　　
　　　　Anger and emotion are strategically counterproductive. You must always stay calm and objective. But if you can make your enemies angry while staying calm yourself, you gain a decided advantage. Put your enemies off-balance: Find the chink in their vanity through which you can rattle them and you hold the strings.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 40 吃人嘴短，拿人手软。不要吃免费午餐。不过如果脸皮很厚，似乎不要紧啊，可以糖衣剥下来吃了，炮弹打回去。
　　　　
　　　　Despise the Free Lunch
　　　　
　　　　What is offered for free is dangerous – it usually involves either a trick or a hidden obligation. What has worth is worth paying for. By paying your own way you stay clear of gratitude, guilt, and deceit. It is also often wise to pay the full price – there is no cutting corners with excellence. Be lavish with your money and keep it circulating, for generosity is a sign and a magnet for power.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 41 不要站在巨人的阴影里面。某件事情的先驱总是被认为是最牛逼的，如果想走出阴影，最好的办法是改变航程。找个新方向去突破。
　　　　
　　　　Avoid Stepping into a Great Man’s Shoes
　　　　
　　　　What happens first always appears better and more original than what comes after. If you succeed a great man or have a famous parent, you will have to accomplish double their achievements to outshine them. Do not get lost in their shadow, or stuck in a past not of your own making: Establish your own name and identity by changing course. Slay the overbearing father, disparage his legacy, and gain power by shining in your own way.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 42 树倒猢狲散（？）。擒贼先擒王
　　　　
　　　　Strike the Shepherd and the Sheep will Scatter
　　　　
　　　　Trouble can often be traced to a single strong individual – the stirrer, the arrogant underling, the poisoned of goodwill. If you allow such people room to operate, others will succumb to their influence. Do not wait for the troubles they cause to multiply, do not try to negotiate with them – they are irredeemable. Neutralize their influence by isolating or banishing them. Strike at the source of the trouble and the sheep will scatter.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 43 攻心战 - 不要武力攻占或者强迫，要引诱别人觉得你指的方向就是最好的。玩弄对方感情，把握他们觉得最重要的，或者他们所恐惧的，用心理战术劝服对方。
　　　　
　　　　Work on the Hearts and Minds of Others
　　　　
　　　　Coercion creates a reaction that will eventually work against you. You must seduce others into wanting to move in your direction. A person you have seduced becomes your loyal pawn. And the way to seduce others is to operate on their individual psychologies and weaknesses. Soften up the resistant by working on their emotions, playing on what they hold dear and what they fear. Ignore the hearts and minds of others and they will grow to hate you.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 44 模仿对方的行为，解除对方戒心，让对方觉得flattered受了恭维，这样可以深入敌后。
　　　　
　　　　Disarm and Infuriate with the Mirror Effect
　　　　
　　　　The mirror reflects reality, but it is also the perfect tool for deception: When you mirror your enemies, doing exactly as they do, they cannot figure out your strategy. The Mirror Effect mocks and humiliates them, making them overreact. By holding up a mirror to their psyches, you seduce them with the illusion that you share their values; by holding up a mirror to their actions, you teach them a lesson. Few can resist the power of Mirror Effect.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 45 一直扬言需要变化需要革命，但是不要一次改变太多，人们都不习惯于改变，容易引起不满。微调就好了。
　　　　
　　　　Preach the Need for Change, but Never Reform too much at Once
　　　　
　　　　Everyone understands the need for change in the abstract, but on the day-to-day level people are creatures of habit. Too much innovation is traumatic, and will lead to revolt. If you are new to a position of power, or an outsider trying to build a power base, make a show of respecting the old way of doing things. If change is necessary, make it feel like a gentle improvement on the past.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 46 不要表现的好像万人一样，也不要显得比别人全都牛逼（跟前面几条矛盾？）如果别人嫉妒你，就会想方设法搞臭你，有时候也要适时的展现一些弱点，让别人放松警惕。
　　　　
　　　　Never appear too Perfect
　　　　
　　　　Appearing better than others is always dangerous, but most dangerous of all is to appear to have no faults or weaknesses. Envy creates silent enemies. It is smart to occasionally display defects, and admit to harmless vices, in order to deflect envy and appear more human and approachable. Only gods and the dead can seem perfect with impunity.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 47 见好就收，过犹不及。（这个跟打死老虎那条矛盾？）
　　　　
　　　　Do not go Past the Mark you Aimed for; In Victory, Learn when to Stop
　　　　
　　　　The moment of victory is often the moment of greatest peril. In the heat of victory, arrogance and overconfidence can push you past the goal you had aimed for, and by going too far, you make more enemies than you defeat. Do not allow success to go to your head. There is no substitute for strategy and careful planning. Set a goal, and when you reach it, stop.
　　 　　
　　　　Law 48 杀人于无影无形。固定的形式容易被攻击，所以要不断变换，不要以为稳定的形式能长久。
　　　　
　　　　Assume Formlessness
　　　　
　　　　By taking a shape, by having a visible plan, you open yourself to attack. Instead of taking a form for your enemy to grasp, keep yourself adaptable and on the move. Accept the fact that nothing is certain and noLaw is fixed. The best way to protect yourself is to be as fluid and formless as water; never bet on stability or lasting order. Everything changes.
　　 　　
　　　　 =============================================================
　　　　我自己比较喜欢的几点
　　　　Law 10 远离那些郁郁寡欢的人，或者老是遭遇不幸的人。
　　　　Law 13 在寻求帮助的时候，不要寄希望于对方的无私啦，对自己的亏欠之类，要让对方从此次交易里面看见对自己有利可图。
　　　　Law 18 不要修坚固的城墙来保护自己，孤立是危险的（参见长城，和闭关锁国政策）应该广结交，找同盟，了解别人的动向，在人群里面保护自己。
　　　　Law 22 不要随便当烈士，大丈夫能屈能伸。先投降保存实力，日后再战。君子报仇十年不晚
　　　　Law 23 集中力量，不要分散精力。推及个人，一心不要二用。集中处理leverage最高的事情。
　　　　Law 31 减少对方的选择，但是仍然跟别人选择，这样别人还会觉得是自己主动做的决定而不是被迫的，这样将来反悔的可能就降低了。-- 这个好像有说法，让对方觉得点子是自己想出来的，就会非常容易被接受。
　　====================================================================
　　
　　有几条似乎彼此矛盾。
　　
　　当然任何事情，都是要“适当的时机”“适当的程度”，就好，否则就就不好么，那肯定的啊。关键事前如何知道什么才适当？？？？？？
　　马后炮有啥用啊。
　　
　　历史书经常就陷入这样的fallacy，多少大事事后看多么明显，因果关系多么明确，只要怎样怎样就一定如何如何，但是事前甚至事情发生的时候，当事人无法做出这样的判断。
　　
　　社会关系如此复杂人跟人之间interaction那么多，要想完整预见全部outcome应该是不可能的。。。。