来源 | 资色（微信号：Capital-nature）
作者 | 小雅
“债券之王”比尔·格罗斯在2016新年展望中，对着发达经济体大喊“我们破产了，但我们甚至没有意识到。”
格罗斯一向语不惊人死不休。他在2016年展望中提出，本轮金融危机的实质问题是人口问题，而不是金融问题。由于千禧一代太少，无法照顾那么多婴儿潮时期出生的一代人。眼下的金融资产价格，正在反映未来劳动者数量、价格和生产商品的数量价格情况。
以下是格罗斯全文中英对照版，文章由小雅翻译，不当之处请在后台留言。
The Romans gave their Plebian citizens a day at the Coliseum, and the French royalty gave the Bourgeoisie a piece of figurative “cake”, so it may be true to form that in the still prosperous developed economies of 2016, we provide Fantasy Sports, cellphone game apps, sexting, and fast food to appease the masses. Keep them occupied and distracted at all costs before they recognize that half of the U.S. population doesn’t go to work in the morning and that their real wages after conservatively calculated inflation have barely budged since the mid 1980’s. Confuse them with demagogic and religious oriented political candidates to believe that tomorrow will be a better day and hope that Ferguson, Missouri and its lookalikes will fade to the second page or whatever it’s called these days in new-age media.
罗马统治者恩赐民众在角斗场呆上一天，法国皇室给布尔乔亚们一块精美“蛋糕”，我们用虚拟运动、手机游戏、色情短信和垃圾快餐来安抚大众，这让发达经济体在2016年看起来仍然一派繁荣。
（前两句话的编注：1、3月17日意大利放假一天庆祝共和国统一150周年，此举曾遭到了包括执政联盟成员北方联盟和其他反对党派的一致批评
2、法国人在每年1月的第一个周日“三王来朝”节这天必吃“国王饼”，在派饼中夹入“幸运瓷币”，常印有小耶稣的图像，分到这块饼的人将头戴皇冠，成为当日的“国王”，迎来整年的好运。）
众生为此忙忙碌碌，无瑕认识这一事实：半数美国人口早上不用上班，他们的实际工资（保守计算通货膨胀后）自1980年代中期以来几乎没有增长；关注宗教信仰的政治候选人用蛊惑人心的话迷惑民众，让他们相信明天会更好，并希望密苏里州佛格森事件和类似事件会淡出或翻篇儿，或者别的什么新潮媒体的叫法儿。
（密苏里州佛格森事件编注：2014年8月，一名密苏里州弗格森地区的警官开枪打死了手无寸铁的18岁黑人少年，但是警方和目击证人却给出了对枪击现场的不同描述。这种矛盾导致了民众的多次抗议游行和警方和民众之间的矛盾冲突。）
Meanwhile, manipulate prices of interest rates and stocks to benefit corporations and the wealthy while they feast on exorbitantly priced gluten-free pasta and range-free chicken at Whole Foods, or if even more fortunate, pursue high rise New York condos and private jets at Teterboro. It’s a wonderful life for the 1% and a Xanax existence for the 99. But who’s looking – or counting – even at the ballot box. November 2016 will not change a thing – 8 years of Hillary or 8 years of a non-Hillary. Same difference. Central bankers, Superpacs, and K street lobbyists are in control. Instead of cake, the 49.5% (males) will just have to chomp on their Carl’s Jr. hamburger and dream of a night with 23-year-old Kate Upton lookalikes that show them how to eat it during Super Bowl commercials. And if that’s too sexist, then Carl’s is substituting six-pack hunks instead of full-breasted models to appease the other 49.5% (females). It’s a Xanax society. We love it.
与此同时，一些财团和有钱人，一边大吃大喝高档有机食品超市里贵的离谱的无麸面食和放养鸡，更有甚者，追着高价购买纽约多层公寓和泰特波罗机场（位于新泽西）的私人飞机，一边通过操纵利率和股票价格获利。
这就是1%富人们的美妙生活和另外那99％人群的焦虑现实。但是谁会计较这些呢，即使拥有投票权。2016年11月什么也不会改变——有没有希拉里执政8年并无二致。身处要位的银行家们、超级政治行动委员会和K街的说客们在控制一切。
在这99%的人群里，49.5%（男性）只想吃上卡乐星汉堡，做个和美女共度良宵的美梦，比如在在超级碗为卡乐星做广告的23岁凯特·阿普顿或者其他类似的美人儿。
（编注：1、超级碗：美国橄榄球联盟年度冠军赛，胜者被称为“世界冠军”。超级碗一般在每年1月最后一个或2月第一个星期天举行，那一天称为超级碗星期天。
2、凯特·阿普顿：内衣品牌维多利亚的秘密女模特。）
如果这样太性别歧视的话，卡尔星大可把丰满女模换成六块肌肉男来安抚另外那49.5%的女性就好了。这是个Xanax一统天下的社会，我们真TM喜欢它。
（Xanax编者注：美国畅销镇静剂类药，被认为可治疗焦虑，恐慌和忧郁等病症）
But I kid my readers – (that’s what comedians say on TV when they approach an edge). Kidding aside, however, if the 99 think they’ve got it good (bad) now, just wait 10 or 20 more years until their bills really come due. Of course by then, the 1% likely won’t be doing so well either, but there’s the hope that each and every one of them (us/me) can sell before the deluge. I speak specifically though to liabilities associated with the Boomer generation: healthcare, private pensions, Social Security and the unestimable costs of global warming, but let me leave the warming of the planet out of it for now. Let me try to convince you with some hard, cold facts, many of which are U.S. oriented but which apply as well to much of the developed world, because we’re mostly all getting older together. Demography rules.
读者诸君，以上我只是开个玩笑（喜剧演员们在电视上说到敏感话题都这么说不是么？），不过玩笑放一边，如果这99％的人群认为他们已经搞定（搞砸）了，等10或20多年后他们真正该买单的时候再看。当然了，到那时，1%（富人）也可能不咋地了，不过他们中的每一个人（我们/我）还有希望来得及在洪水来临之前获利了结。
我具体说说与婴儿潮一代相关的负债：医疗保健、个人养老金、社会安全以及全球变暖等不可估计的代价。不过，现在先抛开地球变暖不谈，我先努力来说服你一个冰冷事实，虽然很多是基于美国的情况，但对发达国家来说同样适用，因为按照人口学规律，我们几乎同时一起迈入老龄化。
Explaining this demographic countdown requires an impolitic concession that the world’s population is gradually aging, some at a faster rate than others (Japan, Italy, Taiwan!) but mostly in developed vs. undeveloped countries.
解释人口临界点需要一个可能不够政治正确的假设：世界人口逐渐老化。一些国家地区的老龄化速度比其他国家地区（日本，意大利，台湾）更快，但区别主要还是在发达国家与欠发达国家之间。
We are broke and don’t even know it, or to return to my opening analogy, we are having our cake, eating it at the same time and believing that a new cellphone app will be invented in the near future to magically deliver more of the same. Not gonna happen folks.
我们破产了，但我们甚至没有意识到。回到我开场白，我们有自己的蛋糕，大家一起吃着，我们相信一个新的手机应用将在不久的将来被发明出来，继续神奇地提供更多，伙计们，醒醒吧，不可能了。
And it is the elderly that require more services and expenses than newborns, although at first blush it would seem that an infant in diapers requires more attention and healthcare than a 70-year-old retiree. Not really. To focus on some U.S. centric mathematical realities, several years ago Mary Meeker in a 500 page, softbound edition entitled “USA Inc.” put together a series of U.S. Treasury and other government reports that outlined just how dire America’s future demographic is in terms of financial liabilities. It is one thing to put readers to sleep with a 2030 forecast for aging boomers, as shown in Chart 1 but another to use the government’s own present value of these debts as of 2016. If financial market observers seem aghast at current Greek or Puerto Rican debt traps, they would surely take a double dose of Xanax when confronted with this: Fact – The U.S. government has current outstanding debt of approximately $16 Trillion or close to 100% GDP. The present value, however of Medicaid ($35 trillion), Medicare ($23 trillion), and Social Security ($8 trillion) promised under existing program totals $66 trillion or another 400% of GDP. We are broke and don’t even know it, or to return to my opening analogy, we are having our cake, eating it at the same time and believing that a new cellphone app will be invented in the near future to magically deliver more of the same. Not gonna happen folks.
老年人比新生儿需要更多的公共服务和费用，尽管乍一看，似乎是裹着尿片的婴儿要比70岁的退休老人需要更多的照顾和医疗服务，事实可并不如此。
来重点关注一些以美国为中心的数据现实：几年前玛丽·米克尔用500页篇幅，在题为“美国公司”一文里列出了一系列美国财政部和其他政府报告，概述了就金融负债而言美国未来的人口状况有多可怕。
（编注：玛丽·米克尔是著名的华尔街证券分析师和投资银行家，1998年被巴伦周刊评为“网络女皇”后被人们熟知。）
预测2030年的老龄化情况，如图1所示，可能会让读者打瞌睡，可是使用截至2016年的美国政府债务折现数据就不一样了。如果金融市场观察家被目前希腊和波多黎各的债务陷阱吓坏了，他们肯定得服用双倍剂量的镇静剂才能面对这一事实——美国政府目前未偿债务约为16兆美元，接近GDP（国内生产总值）的100%。
然而，把当前体系下应许的债务贴现，包括医疗补助（35兆美元）、医疗保险（23兆美元）社会保障（$ 8兆）的总额高达66兆美元，相当于GDP的4倍。
我们破产了，但我们甚至没有意识到。回到我开场白，我们有自己的蛋糕，大家一起吃着，我们相信一个新的手机应用将在不久的将来被发明出来，继续神奇地提供更多，伙计们，醒醒吧，不可能了。
Some politicians like Paul Ryan who argue for balanced fiscal budgets are intelligent sounding but relatively clueless. “Austerity – if not now, then when?”, he would argue in Reaganesque twitter. “Let’s slow down or even stop the inexorable clicking of the debt clock: 16 trillion, 17 trillion, 18 trillion”…he would add. Well yes, every little bit helps, Mr. Ryan, but the fact of the matter is (a great political phrase, is it not?) that reducing the growth rate of current government debt does little to help what in essence is a demographic not a financial problem: too few Millennials to take care of too many Boomers. Social Security “lock boxes” or Medicare/Medicaid “trust funds” which in essence represent “pre-funded” liability systems, cannot correct this demographic imbalance, because financial assets represent a “call” on future production. If that production could possibly be saved like squirrels ferreting away nuts for a long winter, then Treasury bonds or purchasing corporate stocks might make some sense. But they can’t. Future healthcare for Boomer seniors can only be provided by today’s Millennials and even doctors yet to be born. We cannot store their energy today for some future rainy day. Nor can we save food, transportation or entertainment for anything more than a few years forward. Each of those must be provided by a future generation of workers for the use of retired Boomers. And as Chart 1 points out, the ratio of retirees to workers – the dependency ratio – soars from .25 retirees for every worker to .35 over the next 10 years or so.
有些政客比如保罗瑞安之流坚持平衡财政预算，这听起来很聪明合理，但其实有点没脑子。“紧缩政策，如果不是现在，那么何时，他在充满里根风格的推特上辩称“让我们慢慢地减少甚至最终停止没完没了地债务时钟：16兆，17兆，18兆”……他会这么补充。
好吧，是的，瑞安先生，会有一点帮助，但实质问题是（这真是个伟大的政治术语不是么？），降低当前政府债务的增长速度几乎无助于解决本质问题，实质问题是人口问题，而不是金融问题：千禧一代太少，无法照顾那么多婴儿潮时期出生的一代人。
社会保障保险箱或医疗保险/医疗补助“信托基金”，实质上是一种“预资助”的负债制度，不能纠正人口失衡，因为金融资产实际是对未来生产力的一种看涨期权。
如果生产力能被储存，就像松鼠为了漫长的冬天偷藏坚果一样，那么发行国债或购买企业股票可能会有意义，但这不可能。婴儿潮时期出生的未来老人的医疗，只能通过今天的千禧一代和相应数量的医生来提供，而这些医生还来不及出生呢。
我们不能为未来糟糕的日子天储存今天的能量，我们也不能给未来几年后更长的时间储存粮食、运输或娱乐等任何事项。婴儿潮时期出生人员退休后的所有需求，只能由未来一代的劳动力提供。如图1所示，退休人员和劳动力的抚养比率在未来10年左右会大幅提升，从目前的每100劳动力需抚养25名退休人士，增至每100劳动力需抚养35名退休人士。
图1：美国老年抚养比
There’s your problem, and neither privatization nor any goodly number of government bonds deposited in the Social Security “lock box” can solve it. While these paper assets may “pay” for goods and services, their value will be market adjusted in future years to exactly match the quantity of things we buy, and that quantity will be substantially a function of the available workforce and the price they command for their services. This is another way of saying that the value of Treasury bonds and even private pension held stocks will be marked down in price as they are sold to pay for future goods and services, and that the price of these goods and services will be marked up (inflation) to justify their reduced demographic supply. Productivity gains are often advanced as a solution but productivity gains have been shrinking in recent years, and even so, employed workers cannot be expected to hand over future advances to retirees without a fight. Having more babies would also turn the trick, but at the moment, making fewer seems to be the going trend.
上述问题，不管是私有化或是把大量政府债券存入社会保障保险箱都无法解决。虽然这些账面资产未来可以“购买”商品和服务，但其估值在未来将通过市场调节跟我们购买的商品数量相匹配，而商品数量与未来劳动力数量和劳动力价格主要相关。
换言之，政府债券和个人养老金持有的股票将在交易中减计价格用以支付未来商品和服务，而未来商品和服务的价格必将提高（通涨），以反映人口供应减少的现实。
普遍认为，提高生产率是解决以上问题的办法，但近年来，生产率提高一直在减缓，即便如此，也不能指望在业劳动力会轻易拱手把未来预支给退休工人。多生孩子也是个办法，但目前，低出生率却正成为趋势。
It’s also commonsensical that if higher Millennial wages are the probable result of a shortage of healthcare workers relative to Boomer requirements, then an investor should go long inflation and short fixed coupons.
如果因为婴儿潮老人需求相关的医疗工作者短缺，导致千禧一代薪资上涨是极可能的结果，那么合乎情理的推断是投资人应该考虑看涨通胀率而看空固息券种。
Investment implications? Well it is true that if much of the developing world is younger demographically (think India), then developed nations could and should transfer an increasing percentage of their financial assets to emerging markets to help foot the demographic bills back home. Long-term then, as opposed to currently, think about increasing your asset allocation to the developing world. It’s also commonsensical that if higher Millennial wages are the probable result of a shortage of healthcare workers relative to Boomer requirements, then an investor should go long inflation and short fixed coupons. U.S. 10-year TIPS at 80 basis points seem like a good hedge in that regard. And of course in terms of specific equity sectors, healthcare should thrive, while liability handcuffed financial corporations such as insurance companies as well as the bonds of underfunded cities and states such as Chicago and Illinois, should not. Other countries have similar burdens. The Financial Times reports that the UK pension industry faces a 20-year wait until they might have enough cash to meet their liabilities in 2036. Until then, they cannot. In general, it seems demographically commonsensical that Boomers have in part been responsible for asset appreciation during the heyday of their productive years and that now, drip by drip, year by year, they will need to sell those assets to someone or some country in order to pay their own bills. Asset returns will therefore be lower than historical norms, especially because interest rates are close to 0% in developed countries.
对于投资意味着什么？如果大多数发展中国家的年轻人比例更高（例如印度），那么发达国家可以也应该将更高比例金融资产转向新兴市场，这将有助于解决人口失衡导致的收支问题。长期来看，应考虑把资产更多转移到发展中国家。
如果因为婴儿潮老人需求相关的医疗工作者短缺，导致千禧一代薪资上涨是极可能的结果，那么合乎情理的推断是投资人应该考虑看涨通胀率而看空固息券种。美国10年期tips（通货膨胀保值债券）在80个基点时，似乎是一个很好的对冲。
具体到权益投资方面，医疗保健业应该蓬勃发展，而受负债拖累的保险公司等这类金融企业，以及芝加哥和伊利诺斯州等资金不足的城市或州邦发行的债券，则不应投资。
其他国家也有类似的负担。金融时报报道，英国养老产业面临20年的缺口，得到2036年他们才有足够的现金来满足债务。在那之前，实在解决不了问题。
总的来说，人口学常识显示，婴儿潮一代在他们生产力的鼎盛时期负责资产增值，而现在，逐渐地，年复一年，他们需要将这些资产出售给其他人或其他国家以支付自己的账单。因此，资产回报率将低于历史水平，特别是在发达国家，利率已接近零。
Demographics may not rule absolutely, but they likely will dominate investment markets and returns for the next few decades until the Boomer phenomena fades away. The 1% – in addition to the 99 – will need extra doses of Xanax, or additional slices of cake, to cope in the next few decades. Let the games begin.
人口统计规则也许并不绝对，但他们很可能在未来几十年主导投资市场及其回报，直到婴儿潮一代的影响消失。1%的富人们，和那 99%的人群一样，也会需要更多剂量的镇静剂或切片蛋糕的安慰，来应对未来几十年的挑战。
游戏开始了！
William H. Gross
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