True to form, Chinese stocks are once again confounding the bullish expectations of Wall Street. | 和往常一样，中国股票市场再次令看好其增长潜力的华尔街投资者感到困惑。 |
Having tantalised investors with a mini-rally at the start of the year, the Shanghai Composite has tumbled since May and is now just 1.4 per cent higher than it started the year. | 上证综指(Shanghai Composite)今年年初用一轮“迷你反弹”，吊起投资者胃口，此后自5月以来持续下跌，目前点位较年初仅上涨1.4%。 |
This is not how things were supposed to go – at least according to sell-side equity analysts. The narrative had been that the new head of China’s securities regulator would provide a much-needed boost to the market through his ambitious reform programme. | 此种大盘走势与市场预期相左，至少不符合卖方证券分析师预期。卖方分析师本来普遍认为，证监会新任领导雄心勃勃的改革计划，会给市场带来急需的一种提振。 |
But while Guo Shuqing, who became chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission in October, has taken steps to open up the country’s capital markets to a broader range of investors, including foreigners, the Shanghai Composite has continued to decline. | 郭树清自去年10月担任中国证监会主席以来，采取了多种措施，使国内资本市场向包括外资在内的更多类型的投资者开放。即便如此，上证综指仍然在延续跌势。 |
The poor performance of Chinese equities is all the more remarkable because, by many valuation measures, they are cheap. The Shanghai Composite is valued at 12 times last year’s earnings, within a whisker of its record low and half its long term average. | 中国股票市场的疲软走势之所以愈发引人关注，是因为参照多种估值方法来看，目前的股价水平都处于低点。目前上证综指的历史市盈率仅为12倍，是其长期均值的二分之一，距离历史最低水平仅一步之遥。 |
Using forecast earnings for the current year, the index is also near all-time lows with a price to earnings ratio of 9.7. | 以当前年度的预期利润为基准，上证综指的市盈率仅为9.7倍，同样接近历史低点。 |
So what’s going on? One problem is that Chinese corporate profits are falling. State-owned enterprises reported a 10 per cent decline in profits in the first five months, according to Andy Xie, an independent economist. | 那么市场为何表现疲软呢？原因之一在于中国企业的盈利水平趋于下降。据独立经济学家谢国忠(Andy Xie)介绍，今年前五个月国有企业的利润规模下降了10%。 |
But perhaps the bigger problem is that retail investors appear to have lost almost all faith in domestic Chinese stocks, known as A shares. Ever since a huge stock bubble burst in 2007, Chinese investors have shunned equities and instead flocked to the perceived safety of property, gold and fixed income products. | 但更主要的原因，也许是散户投资者对中国A股市场似已失去信心。自从2007年A股市场泡沫破灭以来，散户投资者就纷纷撤离股市，转而涌入房地产、黄金、固定收益产品等被认为较为安全的资产市场。 |
“The investors themselves, the retail investors, nowadays feel that the A share market is not where they can really make money,” says Jiong Shao, analyst at Macquarie. “Participation is very low right now.” | 麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)分析师邵炯表示：“目前散户投资者们认为自己在A股市场赚不到钱，市场参与度非常低。” |
In a sign of flagging demand, investors opened only about 100,000 stock trading accounts each week in May, compared with an average of 260,000 over the past three years. | 市场需求下降的一个信号是，5月份平均每周新增股票账户数仅约10万，而过去三年平均每周新增股票账户数为26万。 |
Both inside and outside China, investors have recognised that the stock market is an ineffective way to access the economy’s growth. While China’s gross domestic product has quintupled since 2000, the Shanghai Composite rose just 50 per cent, barely keeping pace with inflation. | 国内外投资者都已意识到，投资股票并不是参与中国经济增长进程的有效方式。2000年以来，中国GDP规模增长了近4倍，而上证综指同期仅上涨约50%，勉强与通货膨胀幅度持平。 |
Rather than holding stocks as long-term investments, most investors use the market like a casino for short-term speculation. Chinese retail investors trade so frequently that average annual portfolio turnover is more than 700 per cent, says Jerry Lou, chief strategy officer at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities in Shanghai. | 绝大多数投资者并未选择长期持有股票，而是将国内股票市场当做了短期投机的赌局。位于上海的摩根士丹利华鑫证券(Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities)首席策略师娄冈(Jerry Lou)表示，国内散户投资者的交易频率很高，年均投资组合周转率超过700%。 |
Portfolio turnover among Chinese mutual funds is also extremely high – more than 300 per cent compared with less than 100 per cent in developed markets. As these funds are judged on the basis of their weekly performance, they must chase short-term profits or face heavy redemptions. | 中国公募基金的投资组合周转率同样很高，超过300%，而成熟资本市场共同基金的投资组合周转率不足100%。人们按每周业绩对国内公募基金进行评价，因此，它们如果不追求短期收益，就会面临巨大赎回压力。 |
Analysts say reviving confidence in the A-share market requires a range of reforms from improving corporate governance standards and reducing the role of the state, to giving greater access to long-term investors such as pension and insurance funds. | 分析师指出，要重塑投资者对A股市场的信心，需要进行一系列改革，包括提升上市公司治理水平、减少政府行政干预，以及使养老金、保险资金等长期投资者能更多地参与到市场中来。 |
“The investor pool is too shallow,” says Mr Lou. He adds that deepening the pool will take time given the legal, regulatory, and institutional obstacles that must be overcome. | 娄冈指出：“目前市场上的投资者基础太薄弱了。”他补充称，扩大投资者基础需要较长时间，因有法律、监管以及制度等多方面障碍需要克服。 |
Under Mr Guo’s leadership, the CSRC has lifted the cap on foreign ownership of Chinese stocks and bonds from $30bn to $80bn and last month substantially expanded the range of foreign institutions that are eligible to apply for investment quotas. | 自郭树清担任主席以来，中国证监会先是将合格境外机构投资者(QFII)的投资总额度由此前的300亿美元提高至800亿美元，上月又显著放宽了对外资机构申请QFII额度的资格限制。 |
But analysts note that even if the $80bn quota is fully subscribed, foreign investors will still account for only about 1 per cent of total free-float market capitalisation in China. | 但分析师指出，即使800亿美元QFII额度获全额申领，外国投资者持仓规模占A股总流通市值的比重仍仅为1%左右。 |
The languid performance of the Shanghai Composite suggests investors see little chance that Chinese pension and insurance funds – a vast pool of capital – will be allowed to pour money into stocks any time soon. | 上证综指的疲软走势表明，投资者认为，规模庞大的养老金以及保险资金在短期内很难获准入市投资。 |
“Guo is a visionary guy, he’s inviting this money into the market but he’s not the one calling the shots,” says Mr Lou. | 娄冈表示：“郭树清是一个有远见的人，虽然他积极邀请养老金和保险资金入市，但最终的决定权不在他手中。” |
“For example, allowing more insurance money into the equity market needs the blessing of the CIRC [China Insurance Regulatory Commission]. To get the annuity money into the market he needs to work with the NSSF [National Social Security Fund].” | 娄冈指出：“保险资金进入股市需要得到中国保险监督管理委员会(China Insurance Regulatory Commission)的许可。而企业年金入市则需得到全国社会保障基金(National Social Security Fund)的协助。” |
Others add that there are deeper problems in the Chinese equity market that need to be addressed, particularly to do with state interference in the operations of listed companies at the expense of minority shareholders. | 还有人认为，中国股票市场存在更深层次的问题亟待解决，特别是对上市公司日常经营的行政干预，这些举动常常以牺牲小股东利益为代价。 |
“The reason why the market subscribes lower valuations to Chinese companies is that the companies are doing national service,” says Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies. | 杰富瑞(Jefferies)全球股票策略师戴仕文(Sean Darby)表示：“投资者下调中国上市公司估值，是因为这些公司在代替政府提供公共服务。” |
“The government has got to allow more flexible pricing and it’s got to have a lot less of a visible hand in the way that the economy is run, because otherwise investors are never going to go into this equity market at all,” he adds. | 他补充称：“政府应允许企业采取更为灵活的定价策略，并大幅减少对经济运行的行政干预，否则投资者可能对国内股票市场永远失去兴趣。” |
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