Under Mr Tsang, Hong Kong people will for the first time have the chance to change their political system themselves, albeit in a limited way. The most recent reform of this kind, which increased the number of directly elected legislators from 24 to 30, was agreed before the handover.
According to the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, the first opportunity for electoral reform is the 2007 chief executive election. After a lengthy public consultation, Mr Tsang is expected to release a proposal shortly on how this contest and the 2008 election for the Legislative Council could be made more democratic.
In other ways, too, Hong Kong has the chance to redefine itself. A series of public health issues, starting with the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome two years ago, has underscored the territory’s vulnerability to diseases and chemicals that cross the border from mainland China.
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“People are starting to recognise that Hong Kong has enormous interaction with mainland China. There’s a growing recognition of what that means in terms of differing standards for food and that that creates issues and potential problems,” says Michael Enright, professor at the University of Hong Kong and co-author of Regional Powerhouse: the Greater Pearl River Delta and the Rise of China.
The Hong Kong government’s response, especially to the fish crisis, has underscored for many observers the difficulties in cross-border communication. Hong Kong and the mainland, after all, have two different political systems.
Others have voiced concern that Mr Tsang’s administration appeared more worried about protecting the mainland’s reputation than Hong Kong’s public health.
Air pollution, another issue that Hong Kong shares with mainland China, is also climbing higher on the political agenda. Over the past two years, air quality in the former British colony has visibly deteriorated, shrouding the landmark harbour in a blanket of smog. Like Hong Kong’s food, much of the air pollution comes from the mainland – often from plants funded by Hong Kong investors.
Christine Loh, a former legislator who now runs Civic Exchange, a think tank, says there is a “groundswell” of public support building for policies to address the territory’s worsening environmental problems.
Ms Loh believes Mr Tsang has the opportunity to shift Hong Kong’s focus from what she calls a “quantity drive” focused on economic growth to a “quality drive” that includes a focus on quality-of-life issues such as the environment.
“How he chooses the city’s priorities will have an impact on how we see ourselves, on what will be the Hong Kong identity,” she says.
In addition to environmental and health issues, Mr Tsang will have to set the government’s course on the controversial West Kowloon Cultural District. The Tung administration decided to turn this 40 hectare section of prime waterfront property into an arts hub, but met fierce criticism for its intention to hand the project over to one developer.
Rafael Hui who, as Mr Tsang’s chief secretary will oversee the West Kowloon portfolio, is expected to drop the insistence on using a single developer. But the issue of precisely how Hong Kong uses this piece of land – undoubtedly the territory’s most ambitious development – is likely to take longer to resolve.
Other elements of Hong Kong’s identity are more fixed. The groundwork laid over the past two years, starting with the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) free trade pact with the mainland and Beijing’s loosening of restrictions on individual travel to Hong Kong in 2003, has deepened an already close cross-border relationship.
Over the past year, 257 mainland Chinese companies received approval to invest HK$8.03bn in Hong Kong, according to Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce. Mainland companies raised HK$113.9bn on the Hong Kong stock exchange in 2004, up sharply from the HK$56bn in 2003.
This year looks likely to be another strong year for public offerings, with HK$72bn raised as of the end of August. Chinese companies have raised nearly HK$1,000bn on the Hong Kong stock exchange since they first started listing there in 1993.
Thanks to the expansion of the individual visitor scheme, the volume of mainland tourists has also been growing, rising from 6.8m in 2002 to 12.2m last year. Economists expect Hong Kong Disneyland, which opened last week, to draw even more, providing a filip to Hong Kong’s already buoyant economy.
Beijing’s influence over Hong Kong politics is also clear. Analysts and some politicians are guardedly optimistic that the mainland’s invitation to all 60 members of the Legislative Council to tour southern China’s Pearl River Delta on September 25-26 could signal an attempt at rapprochement with the territory’s democratic movement.
For years Beijing has barred certain democrats, including Emily Lau and activist-turned-legislator Leung Kwok-hung, from entering the mainland because of their political views. Alan Leong, a pro-democracy legislator, calls the Pearl River delta trip “a very carefully calculated step”.
“The central leadership has become more pragmatic in terms of grappling with Hong Kong issues after the most pragmatic of decisions to appoint Donald Tsang.” Beijing’s selection of Mr Tsang, a devoted Catholic who rose to prominence as a civil servant under the British and was knighted in 1997, surprised some observers.
Beijing has already made clear its parameters for Hong Kong’s near-term democratic reform. In April 2004, it ruled out direct elections for the chief executive in 2007 and the entire legislature in 2008. But it left open the possibility for some reform for elections in those years.
Article 45 of the Basic Law says selecting the chief executive through universal suffrage is the “ultimate aim”. While people may no longer be taking to the streets as they did in 2003 and 2004 to demand democracy, members of the city’s democratic camp say a majority of the public still wants political reform. “You can’t have stability, you can’t have true harmony within society unless and until you have a government that is answerable to the people,” says Mr Leong. Mr Tsang, who is considered a leading candidate for chief executive after 2007, has his work cut out.
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