【双语】原油即将暴跌：2016年油价将跌至25美元的5大理由

Crude's Coming Collapse: 5 Reasons Oil Will Fall To $25 In 2016

原油即将暴跌：2016年油价将跌至25美元的5大理由

By Jesse Cohen

作者|杰西·科恩

Of late, oil market players have been grappling with one key question: are prices of the commodity in the process of bottoming, or will futures see a further collapse to new lows in 2016?

最近，石油市场参与者都面临着关键问题：物价处于触底过程还是期货将在2016年进一步跌入新低？

This past Friday, U.S. Crude futures ended the week at $40.70 a barrel, while Brent settled at $44.50. Just 18 months ago, in June 2014, a barrel of oil fetched more than $100.

这周五美国原油期货收于每桶40.70美元，布伦特油价收于44.50美元。而就在18个月前的2014年6月，每桶石油进账超过100美元。

So far in 2015, U.S. and Brent prices are down almost 18%. Dating back to June 2014, oil futures have lost approximately 60%. That's a heart-stopping decline, and there's no reason to believe it's over yet.

到目前为止，2015年美国和布伦特油价跌幅近18%。而相比于2014年6月，石油期货跌幅近60%。这是令人不安的骤降，而且它并没有结束。

Because of 5 bearish factors now dominating the market, I see oil prices falling even further in the coming year, to a range between $25-$35 a barrel.

由于5个利空因素主导着市场，我认为油价将在来年进一步下跌至每桶25-35美元。

1. Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil output and after a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) last year not to cut their supply quota(see chart, below). According to recent estimates, OPEC pumped approximately 31.64 million barrels a day in October, close to record-highs, as major producers led by Saudi Arabia focused on defending market share by keeping production high.

1.由于美国页岩石油的出口以及石油输出国组织（欧佩克）去年拒绝减产（见下图），全球石油产量供过于求。据最新估计，欧佩克10月产出约为3164万桶/天，接近历史最高纪录，其中由沙特阿拉伯领导的主要生产商力求保持高产来捍卫市场份额。

2. OPEC supplies are expected to rise further once Iran begins boosting crude production when international sanctions are lifted early next year, following July's nuclear agreement with major Western powers. Tehran wants to double oil exports to 2.3 million barrels a day by the middle of 2016, adding to the glut of oil that has already sent prices tumbling.

2.欧佩克供应量将会继续增加，因为明年初国际制裁的撤销及同年7月与西方大国的核协议，伊朗将开始增大原油产量。德黑兰计划在2016年中期实现石油出口量翻番至230万桶/天，而这加剧了导致油价暴跌的石油过剩。

3. Worries over high domestic U.S. oil supplies, despite a declining rig count, will also pose a bearish risk for prices in the year ahead.

3.尽管钻井数量持续下降，但对美国国内高石油供量的担忧也构成来年油价看跌的风险。

According to industry research group Baker Hughes (N:BHI), the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. stood at 574 last week, remaining close to the lowest level since June 2010(see chart, below). Over the prior 11 weeks, a lower U.S. rig count is usually a bullish sign for oil as it signals potentially lower production in the future.

据行业研究集团贝克休斯，上周美国钻井钻机数量为574，仍接近2010年6月来的最低水平（见下图）。在过去的11星期中，较低的美国钻机数通常作为看涨迹象，因为这意味着产量有可能降低。

However, U.S. production has held around 9.0 million barrels a day for the past year, close to the highest level since the early 1970s. At the same time, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.

然而，在过去的一年中，美国的产量已达到每天近九百万桶，接近自20世纪70年代来的最高产量。与此同时，美国原油库存总量接近达到至少80年未出现的同期水平。

4. According to the bearish sentiment, ongoing worries over the weakening health of the global economy have fueled concerns that a global supply glut may stick around for longer than anticipated.

4.根据市场的悲观情绪，全球经济疲软加剧了人们对全球供应过剩的担忧——它可能持续得比预期更长。

Widespread concerns over the soundness of China's sluggish economy and its impact on oil demand will remain a factor. The Asian nation is on track to post its weakest annual growth rate since the global financial crisis in 2015.

对中国不景气的经济和其对石油需求的影响的广泛关注将仍是一个因素。亚洲国家由于2015年金融危机处于最低年度增长率的境况中。

China's third quarter GDP growth came in at 6.9%, just below the government's 7% target. Industrial production figures, announced this past Wednesday, missed expectations and are clearly slowing; Fixed asset investment has flattened. As analyst Cam Hui points out, China's traditional growth engine--powered by industrial exports and infrastructure spending--'is decelerating along a number of dimensions.'

中国第三季度国内生产总值增长为6.9%，略低于政府7%的目标。上周三公示的工业生产数据低于预期并且明显放缓；固定资产投资也已平缓。正如分析师卡姆·许所指出，中国经济的传统增长源——作为主力军的工业出口及基础设施支出“在各个方面都处于下降”。

China's implied oil demand slowed to 226,500 barrels a day in September, the weakest growth rate over the last 8 months. The Asian nation is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the driver of strengthening demand.

中国的石油需求量在9月缓降至226500桶/每天，是相较过去八个月的最低增长率。亚洲国家是继美国之后全球第二大石油消费国，且已成为增加石油需求的驱动力。

5. Oil prices will also face headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar once the Federal Reserve starts hiking interest rates and tightening monetary policy. The policy shift, which many anticipate will be announced in December, is expected to boost the dollar and make dollar-denominated oil futures contracts more expensive for buyers who use other currencies.

5.一旦美联储开始加息和收紧货币政策，油价也将面临来自美元走强的阻力。预计将在12月宣布的政策转变将推动美元升值，并使以美元计价的石油期货对于使用其他货币的买家来说更为昂贵。

All these factors indicate that a rebalance in supply and demand is distant, insuring that oil prices will stay low for a long time.

所有因素都表明距供求再平衡还较遥远，而它保证了油价将长期持低。

Technical analysis further supports this view. After breaking below a trend line dating back to 1999, bearish chart signals show there is no clear support until prices reach the $25-$30-level.

技术分析进一步支持了这一观点。自跌破1999年来的趋势线后，直到价格到达25-30美元的水平，熊市的图表中没有明确证据。

Based on the numerous fundamental and technical signals currently flashing across broader economic spectrum, I believe oil prices will continue spiral lower, likely bottoming at $25 a barrel in 2016.

基于目前更广泛的经济范围内的大量基础及技术信号，我认为油价将继续盘旋走低，在2016年可能以每桶25美元触底。

翻译： Leonie Zhao