德鲁肯米勒在对冲基金业界是数一数二的对冲基金经理，交易员。
也是笔者心中的目标以及偶像。他和索罗斯以及杰西利佛摩是我在无数困顿的日子，苦闷以及痛苦的时日里仰望的星。
有关他的文章在本公众号里多有提及：
基金经理风云录（一）——Stanley Druckenmiller
Stanley Druckenmiller对市场流动性，宏观投资和以及边际利润的点评。
What’s obvious is obviously wrong… The present is already in the price… And it’s margins and capacity that matter… ~ Stanley Druckenmiller
显而易见的是显而易见的错误......所有的市场要素都已经反映在价格中......而唯一关键的是交易本身的利润边际以及容量...... ~Stanley Druckenmiller
The following are some more words of wisdom from Druck pulled from an old Barron’s interview in 88’. There’s a few notes from me as well…
以下是德鲁克在88年代的旧巴伦周刊采访中提出的更多充满市场智慧的点评。
我也有一些笔记......
Gauging the macro environment through three different lens:
我们通过三种不同的市场视角以测量全球宏观市场环境：
We look at the market in three different ways — and each of them is flashing warning signals. First of all, we look at valuations. We use them to determine, really, the market’s risk level, as opposed to its direction… Valuation is something you have to keep in mind in terms of the market’s risk level… when catalyst’s come in and change the market’s direction… the decline could be very major if you’re coming from the kinds of overvaluation levels witnessed in ‘29 and the fourth quarter of last year (note: this was in the year following the 87’ crash). So valuation is something we keep in the back of our minds.
我们以三种不同的方式看待市场 - 每一种都隐含着警告信号。首先，我们看一下估值。我们使用它们来确定市场的风险水平，而不是其方向......估值是你必须记住的市场风险水平......而股票的催化剂将进入并改变市场的方向......下跌可能是 非常重要的，如果你来自于去年29年和去年第四季度见证的高估水平（注意：这是在87'崩溃之后的一年）。因此，估值是我们在脑海中留下的，最首要的因素。
The major thing we look at is liquidity, meaning as a combination of an economic overview. Contrary to what a lot of the financial press has stated, looking at the great bull markets of this century, the best environment for stocks is a very dull, slow economy that the Federal Reserve is trying to get going… Once an economy reaches a certain level of acceleration… the Fed is no longer with you… The Fed, instead of trying to get the economy moving, reverts to acting like the central bankers they are and starts worrying about inflation and things getting too hot. So it tries to cool things off… shrinking liquidity… [While at the same time] The corporations start having to build inventory, which again takes money out of the financial assets… finally, if things get really heated, companies start engaging in capital spending… All three of these things, tend to shrink the overall money available for investing in stocks and stock prices go down…
我们关注的主要是流动性，这意味着经济概况的结合。与许多金融媒体所说的相反，看看本世纪的大牛市，股市的最佳环境是美联储试图推动的非常沉闷，缓慢的经济......一旦经济达到某种程度 加速程度......美联储不再和你在一起......美联储不再试图让经济发展，而是回归到像他们那样的央行行长，开始担心通货膨胀和事情变得太热了。所以它试图让事情变得冷却......流动性减少......与此同时公司开始建立库存，管理层将再次从金融资产中取钱......最后，如果事情变得非常激烈，公司开始参与资本支出 ......所有这三件事，往往会缩减投资股票和股票价格的总体资金下降......
Druck has also said:
Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.
德鲁肯米勒还说：
盈利不会影响整体市场; 它是联邦储备委员会......专注于中央银行并专注于流动性的流动......市场上的大多数人都在寻找收益和常规措施。移动市场的是流动性。
This is absolutely true. Liquidity is a key metric we track at Macro Ops. It’s also the most misunderstood by market players. To read more on the topic of liquidity, check out this piece.
这绝对是真的。流动性是我们在宏观交易中跟踪的关键指标。这也是市场参与者最容易被误解的。
Also, this next line is so important to understand:
…the best environment for stocks is a very dull, slow economy that the Federal Reserve is trying to get going.
此外，下一行点评对于交易者也是非常重要的：
...投资的最佳环境是当股市变得极其沉闷，美联储试图开始提速并且振兴缓慢拖沓的经济。
Once you understand how and why liquidity works, you’ll fully grasp the old Wall St. adage of “Don’t fight the Fed”. The Fed controls the biggest lever on global liquidity. And liquidity is what drives stocks… NOT the economy.
一旦你理解了流动性如何以及为什么会起作用，你就会完全掌握华尔街对“不要与美联储作斗争”的谚语。美联储控制着全球流动性的最大杠杆。流动性是驱动股票的动力......而不是经济。
Think about the last eight years of the current bull market. Economic growth has been pathetic, inflation was fleeting, and confidence in the direction of the economy dour. But at the same time we’ve experienced one of the largest and longest bull markets in history…
想想当前牛市的最后八年。经济增长一直是可悲的，通货膨胀是短暂的，对经济方向的信心也在下降。但与此同时，我们经历了历史上最大，最长的牛市之一......
The pundits and fin-twit bears who’ve been shouting about impending doom and gloom, crying about how detached the market is from the “fundamentals”, don’t understand the most important fundamentals of them all: liquidity and sentiment.
那些一直在喊着即将到来的悲观和沮丧的权威人士和狡猾的市场看空着（熊），这些人对于市场与“基本面”的背离程度感到不满，他们并不了解这些基本面中最重要的要素：流动性和情绪。
The worse thing that could happen to this current bull market is for the economy to markedly pick up. That growth would spur inflation, which along with improved sentiment, would make the Fed a lot more comfortable tightening at a faster pace. Liquidity would then be pulled from the system and drive the stock market lower.
目前牛市可能发生的更糟糕的事情是经济明显回升。这种增长将刺激通货膨胀，随着情绪的改善，将使美联储更加舒适地加快收紧步伐。然后流动性将从系统中拉出并推动股市走低。
Don’t confuse the stock market with the economy. Understand that the market is forward-looking and the biggest lever on future demand is liquidity. That’s why you need to understand the reaction function of the Federal Reserve.
不要把股票市场与经济混为一谈。了解市场前瞻性，未来需求的最大杠杆是流动性。这就是为什么你需要了解美联储的对于经济的反应功能。
On valuations and market moves:
关于估值和市场走势：
In this century the stock market has tended to trade between 1.1 and 2.2 times book… And stocks generally yield between 6% or 7%. When people are feeling good about the world, for some reason, 2.1 to 2.2 times book and 3% yield tend to be the cap…
在本世纪，股票市场的交易价格往往在1.1到2.2倍的票面价值之间......股票的收益率通常在6％或7％之间。当人们对这个世界感觉良好时，由于某种原因，2.1至2.2倍的票面价值和3％的收益往往是上限...
I do know that every time the stock market has gone down 30% in this century, we’ve had a recession. The only good economist I have found is the stock market. To people who say it has predicted seven out of the last four recessions, or whatever, my response is that it’s still a lot better than any of the other economists I know.
我知道，每当股市在本世纪下跌30％时，我们就经历了经济衰退。我发现的唯一优秀的经济学家是股票市场。对于那些说它预测了过去四次经济衰退中的七次或其他什么的人，我的回答是它仍然比我认识的其他经济学家好很多。
Concentrated bets and the importance of focusing on margins:
集中押注以及关注边际利润的重要性：
To try to add value to our portfolio, we make very concentrated bets in industry sectors, rather than simply being overweight or underweighted in terms of the S&P. If you look at our portfolios over time, four to five industries tend to represent 90% of the holdings — long and short… We choose these industries by trying to buy companies where we feel the margins are going to be higher in one to three years and selling companies where we feel they’re going to be lower in one to three years.
为了增加我们投资组合的价值，我们在行业领域进行了非常集中的投注，而不仅仅是在标准普尔指数方面超重或低估。如果你看一下我们的投资组合随着时间的推移，四到五个行业往往代表90％的持股 - 多头和空头......我们选择这些行业，试图购买我们认为边际利润率会在一到三年内走高的公司 并且出售这些我们认为他们将在一到三年内边际利润显著降低的公司股票。
[In response to the question of why focus on margins?] It’s tied in with my liquidity argument. When corporate America is operating at very high rates, it starts building capacity, which sucks out liquidity; it also lowers companies margins two years out. And that’s the opposite of when a bull market starts…
[回答为什么要关注利润边际的问题？]这与我的流动性论点紧密相关。当美国企业以非常高的利率运营时，它开始建设能力，从而消耗流动性; 它还降低了公司两年的利润边际。这与牛市开始时相反......
With the longs, we are trying to identify situations where we feel that margins are going to be higher over the next year or two. We’re trying to identify industries that are operating at fairly low rates, which will be rising, but where you won’t see capacity increases for at least a couple of years, and where the profit margins will be much higher by then. [And] we don’t sell things just on a valuation basis… We need to see what is going to make the margins come down…
随着时间的推移，我们正在努力找出我们认为未来一两年利润率会更高的情况。我们正在努力确定以相当低的利率运营的行业，这些行业将会上涨，但至少在几年内你不会看到产能增长，到那时利润率会高得多。 [并且]我们不会仅仅在估值的基础上出售东西......我们需要看看是什么让利润率下降......
There are a number of important points here. Druck is noting the importance of trading off future outcomes in relation to current expectations instead of trading the present reality. In a talk at USC a number of years ago he said:
这里有许多重要的市场观点。德鲁克注意到与当前预期相关的权衡未来结果的重要性，而不是交易市场此刻的现实。他在几年前在南加州大学的一次演讲中说：
Too many investors look at the present, the present is already in the price. You have to look think of the box and sort of visualize 18 to 24 months from now what the world is going to look like and what securities might trade at.” What a company is earning right now doesn’t mean anything. What you have to look at is, what a company is earning and what people think it’s going to earn and if you can see something that in two years is going to be entirely different than the conventional wisdom, that’s how you make money. My first boss said “what’s obvious is obviously wrong.”
太多的投资者看目前，现在所有的市场要素以及现实全部都已反映在此刻的价格之中。你必须设身处地的思考，并从现在开始看待18到24个月的世界将会是什么样以及有关你将进行的交易的本质。“公司目前的收入并不意味着什么。 你需要关注的是，公司的收益是什么以及人们认为它将会获得什么，如果你能看到两年内与传统智慧完全不同的东西，那就是你赚钱的方式。 我的第一个老板说“显而易见的是显然是错的。”
A useful tool for valuing potential future outcomes is the margins of sectors and industries. There’s a cyclicality in margins that provides a window into the point of the capital cycle a particularly industry or sector is in.
评估潜在未来结果的有用工具是部门和行业的边际利润率。 边际利润率具有周期性，而这为特定行业或部门所处的资本周期提供了一个交易窗口。
Fat profit margins attract competition. Competition leads to increased investment. Increased investment leads to glut and contracting margins until capacity is taken offline. And then the cycle begins anew.
充足的利润边际吸引更剧烈的市场竞争。竞争导致投资增加。投资增加导致利润率过剩和利润缩减，直到产能脱节。然后如此的市场循环将重新开始。
Stanley Druckenmiller is among the greatest traders to ever play the game. His big advantage is that he understands liquidity and how it drives macro. And knowing macro is one of the most important keys to market success. As one of Druck’s proteges, Scott Bessent put it:
Stanley Druckenmiller是有史以来最伟大的交易者之一。他的最大优势在于他了解流动性以及流动性因素如何驱动宏观经济。 并了解宏观经济以及流动性是市场成功的最重要关键之一。作为Druck的一个门徒，Scott Bessent这么说：
Recently, I was at a money manager roundtable dinner where everyone was talking about “my stock this” and “my stock that”. Their attitude was that it doesn’t matter what is going to happen in the world because their favorite stock is generating free cash flow, buying back shares, and doing XYZ. People always forget that 50% of a stock’s move is the overall market, 30% is the industry group, and then maybe 20% is the extra alpha from stock picking. And stock picking is full of macro bets. When an equity guy is playing airlines, he’s making an embedded macro call on oil.
最近，我参加了一个对冲基金经理圆桌晚宴，每个人都在谈论“我的股票这个”和“我的股票”。他们的态度是，世界将会发生什么并不重要，因为他们最喜欢的股票是产生自由现金流，企业管理层将回购股票，以及做XYZ之类的举措提振股价。 然而人们总是忘记，50％的股票的运动源自于整体市场本身的运动，而股价的运动有30％源自相关的行业组织，然后仅有20％是源自于选股能力创造的额外alpha。选股这一举动充满了宏观要素。举例来说，当一个注重选股的对冲基金经理开始下注航空公司时，他的本质是在下注原油的价格。
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