Arms race will happen, but who to blame

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released a report Monday. Photo: sipri.org

 

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released a report Monday. It claimed that Asia and Oceania accounted for 44 percent of global arms imports in the last five years. India, with 10 percent of the share, was top of the list. It concluded that Asia is in a major arms race.

China is often cited by the West as the root reason behind the arms race in the region. The claim is half right at most. Countries cannot overcome the psychology of being wary of each other. This is in itself the cause for a regional arms race. 

The US is increasing strategic moves against China. Every action of the White House, however, will be followed by Chinese counter-measures. It is a chicken-and-egg affair. But the US is the one that stands to benefit most since most arms sold are made in the US. 

It is already difficult to stop this arms race. The substantial benefit it brings to the US is another disincentive.

Some suggest China cut its military budget as a way to reduce defensive competition in the Asia-Pacific. But this is unrealistic in the current global order. China cannot bet on regional peace while not modernizing its forces.

The arms race is inevitable in the Asia-Pacific given the current circumstances. Now it is important to prevent the race from turning violent or tapping into prejudice that will turn it from a defensive race to real preparation for war. 

The money is better wasted in an arms race than put to use in war. It is noticeable that it is always US and European think-tanks that lead the hyping of an arms race. It is increasingly unlikely to be a coincidence. 

As China develops, China and the US need to communicate seriously over their respective understandings about security and try their best to form a situation in the western Pacific region that they can both accept. 

The US should help China eliminate the military danger across the Taiwan Strait and become a real peacemaker in the South China Sea. 

Besides, the US should set a model of competing with China peacefully and not intervening in China's affairs in an unacceptable way. If so, China will be much less motivated to develop its own military strength. The problem is whether the US is interested in making these adjustments. 

As long as the US doesn't make these changes, China is destined to be cautious. Of course, it is necessary for China to increase military transparency and to develop non-military means to counter US ambition. But none of this will affect the overall military situation in the Asia-Pacific.

Emerging countries like China and India have much room to boost their military spending. But neither China nor the US can control the region alone. 

China is willing to cooperate with the US and try to balance the strong demand for military building in Asia-Pacific region. If the US is unwilling to do so, China cannot help it. 

But whatever the future looks like, as long as China keeps its momentum of development, China will not be the loser.