[2012.05.19] Egypt: Spring can come again 埃及总统大选，春天再次...
0Egypt’s presidential election
埃及总统大选
Spring can come again
阿拉伯之春再次爆发
Though no candidate inspires much joy, a fair election will be a great step forward
候选人虽不讨喜，但是一场公平的选举依然意味着向民主体制迈出了一大步
008 Leaders - Egypt_s election.mp3 (1.66 MB, 下载次数: 0)
May 19th 2012 | from the print edition
NEARLY a year-and-a-half after the revolution that shook the Arab world, Egypt is poised to take another stride on the bumpy road to democracy. The recent spectacle of an Islamist candidate and his more secular-minded rival arguing it out for several hours on television before an audience of millions was historic (see article). On May 23rd, 52m voters in the most populous Arab country, 82m-strong, will be entitled to vote for their president. If no candidate among the 13 runners wins more than 50%, a run-off between the top pair will take place a month later. By the beginning of July, Egypt should have its first democratically elected head of state. If the vote passes off peacefully and cleanly, it will deserve a huge hurrah.
大约一年半前，阿拉伯之春革命席卷阿拉伯世界。现在，埃及已经准备就绪，在民主这条崎岖不平的大路上继续前行。近期，一位伊斯兰候选人和其世俗主义思想的竞选对手在电视上辩论了几个小时，数百万观众观看了这个节目，这个场面对埃及而言是非常具有历史意义的一刻。埃及是阿拉伯世界人口最为稠密的国家，共有人口8200多万。5月23日，5200万埃及选民将参加总统大选投票。如果13位候选人中无人能赢得50%以上的支持率，那么得票数领先的前两名候选人将在一个月之后进行决定性选举。埃及将在七月初诞生第一位民主选举产生的国家领袖。埃及总统大选若能在一片祥和的状态下公平公正地进行，我们就应该为之大声欢呼。
It has not been easy. The process has been bungled by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, or SCAF, a cabal of senior soldiers. At times the SCAF has seemed reluctant to cede power. It has played tricks on the democrats and looked the other way or connived at human-rights abuses. It has made a hash of constitutional amendments. Indeed, the reforms are being carried out back-to-front, as the new president’s powers will not be defined until after the election, once a committee chosen by parliament has agreed to a new constitution.
然而事情并非易如反掌。埃及最高军事委员会把民主进程搞得乌烟瘴气。埃及最高军事委员会是由多位高级军事将领组成的小团体，时而让人觉得他们不愿移交权力。他们在民主发展过程中耍阴谋，对于违反人权的行为睁只眼闭只眼，甚至默许纵容。他们把修宪搞得一团糟。埃及的改革进程确实本末颠倒，新总统的职权范围要等到大选之后才能确定，由议会指派的委员会批准起草新宪法。
Hence the president’s first task is to cajole the new parliament into writing a constitution double-quick. Given that parliament is dominated by Islamists, this may be hard for a secular-minded president. Arguments over the role of Islam in the constitution are already steamy. The president should seek to bridge the gap between secularists and Islamists.
因此当选总统的首要任务就是说服议会加快起草宪法。议会由伊斯兰主义者当家作主，若世俗主义者当选总统，要难完成这个首要任务就十分棘手。关于伊斯兰教在宪法中的地位如何界定的争论已经呈现白热化。当选总统应该努力充当世俗主义者和伊斯兰主义者之间的桥梁，消除他们之间的分歧。
The new duo of parliament and president also faces the delicate job of managing the army. The SCAF is likely to demand that the generals retain their vast economic privileges and perhaps even immunity from prosecution for past sins. They will expect the post of defence minister for one of their own. A new president may have to compromise, but he must ensure the soldiers start trudging back to their barracks for good.
议会和总统还将面对如何管理军队这一棘手的工作。埃及最高军事委员会很可能要求保留将军们的经济特权，以及过去所犯罪行的指控豁免权。他们还希望国防部长由他们自己人担任。新总统则不得不妥协，但是必须要求军人退回他们的军营，安守自己的本分。
And Egypt’s new leader must start urgently to restore its shattered economy. Foreign-currency reserves have been shrinking; inflation is running at 12%, tourism has slumped by a third; strikes, crime and uncertainty reduced foreign investment last year to less than a twentieth of what it was in 2007. A new president must endorse a new budget and sign off on an IMF loan (foolishly turned down under populist pressure last year by the SCAF) that should prompt others to chip in too.
埃及新任总统必须立即开始着手振兴埃及衰退的经济。埃及外汇储备缩水，通货膨胀率为12%，旅游业总值降低了三分之一，罢工、犯罪以及一些不确定因素致使埃及去年外国投资总额比2007年减少了二十分之一。新总统不仅要签署新的预算案，还要从国际货币基金组织取得贷款（去年埃及最高军事委员会迫于民粹主义的压力拒绝了该项贷款，此举非常失败），这项贷款还会给埃及带来更多的贷款。
Back to your barracks
安守本分
Though opinion polls have been notoriously unreliable, four men are thought to have a chance. Some say the front-runner is Amr Moussa, now 75, who served as Mr Mubarak’s foreign minister for a decade and then led the toothless Arab League with scant success. He is the choice of liberals, secularists and Egypt’s large Christian minority. By far the biggest group in parliament, the Freedom and Justice Party, a front for the Muslim Brothers, with 46% of the seats, has put forward the dour Muhammad Morsi. A third candidate, Abdel Moneim Abolfotoh, a 60-year-old former Brother, is the most engaging. He jousted with Mr Moussa in the television debate and he is backed by some secular leftists as well as by the main party of Salafists, who won more than 20% of the seats in parliament. The fourth is a former air-force general, Ahmed Shafiq, who was briefly prime minister as Mr Mubarak fell. He is the old order’s man and is making a late surge.
据民调结果显示，四位候选人有机会问鼎总统宝座，虽然众所周知民调结果一向不准确。现年75岁的穆萨（Amr Moussa）是第一热门人选，他在穆巴拉克时代担任外交部长职务长达十年之久，后领导阿拉伯联盟，但因实力不济未能取得丝毫卓越成就。自由主义者、世俗主义者以及埃及最大的少数族群基督教徒都支持他。第二位热门人选是得到埃及自由与正义党支持莫西(Muhammad Morsi)，莫西为人不苟言笑。埃及自由与正义党(Freedom and Justice party) 是穆兄会成员，作为埃及议会最大党团，拥有议会46%的席位。第三位热门候选人福图赫（Abdel-Moneim Abolfotoh），现年60岁，这位前穆兄会领袖与穆萨在电视辩论里唇枪舌战，是最具魅力的一位候选人。世俗主义左派和萨拉菲派中的大党是他的支持者。萨拉菲派拥有议会20%的席位。此外，前空军元帅沙菲克（Ahmed Shafiq）是第四位大选热门，颇具后来者居上之势。穆巴拉克当政之时沙菲克曾担任埃及总理职务，穆倒台后他也匆匆下台，是旧体制的代表人物。
No one is expected to win the first round outright. Given tha t a good 70% of the vote for parliament went to Islamists only a few months ago, the run-off could be between two them. If Mr Moussa gets through, he will surely face an uphill battle. That should give pause for thought. Even if the Islamists do not so far look disastrous ones, the prospect of an Islamist president alongside an Islamist-dominated parliament where Salafists are starting to agitate for regressive social laws is worrying. Mr Moussa is part of the old system; but at least he is experienced and knows the arts of diplomacy and compromise. Both the Islamists and generals would grudgingly accept him. As a transitional figure, he deserves a tepid endorsement.
任何候选人预计都不会在第一轮选举中取得完胜。几个月前，七成以上的选民在议会选举中投票支持伊斯兰政党，照此预计最后的决胜选举也将在两位伊斯兰候选人中进行。如果穆萨当选总统，他肯定将面对一场攻坚战。我们应该停下来好好想一想。虽然到目前为止伊斯兰主义者行事尚属妥当，然而埃及总统是伊斯兰主义者，议会由伊斯兰党派当家，萨拉菲派也开始煽动重建旧时社会律法，这种前景则不能称之为好事一桩。穆萨是旧体制的一份子，但他至少经验丰富，外交手腕高超，是个八面玲珑的人物。伊斯兰主义者和各位将军虽不情愿但也不得不接受他。穆萨是一位过渡人物，他虽不能得到广泛认同，却也应该得到支持。
