Russia and NATO 俄罗斯与北约

[2012.05.19] Russia and NATO 俄罗斯与北约 

Russia and NATO 俄罗斯与北约

Rethink the reset 重新考虑重组

NATO should not give in to Russian aggression 

北约不应在俄罗斯咄咄逼人的威胁面前服软

  007 Leaders - Russia and NATO.mp3 (1.31 MB, 下载次数: 0)  

May 19th 2012 | from the print edition 

FOR 20 years NATO has wooed the Kremlin, with disappointing results. The alliance has repeatedly said it does not regard Russia as a threat and has forsworn putting nuclear weapons (or indeed anything else significant) in member states that were once part of the Soviet empire. Indeed, so keen was NATO not to offend Russia that for the first few years after the newcomers joined in 2004, it made no plans to defend them.

北约向克里姆林宫暗送秋波凡20年，但结果令人失望。它一再说它不把俄罗斯视为威胁，而且还发誓不在任何前苏联加盟共和国的成员国领土上部署核武器甚至任何威力强大的武器。确实，北约非常不想招惹俄罗斯，这让它在新成员国2004年加入后的头几年根本没有保护它们的任何计划。

Yet Russia’s behaviour to NATO is becoming nastier. The chief of the general staff, Nikolai Makarov，recently spoke openly about a first strike against future American missile-defence installations in Poland and Romania. Russia has conducted ostentatious military drills on its border with the Baltic states, NATO’s most vulnerable members. Vladimir Putin, newly reinstalled in the Kremlin, has gone back to bashing the West. He is shunning NATO’s Chicago summit next week (and also the G8’s, even though his hosts moved that one from Chicago to make him happier). Residual cold-war thinking is exemplified by Russia’s espionage efforts at NATO’s Brussels headquarters, where its military observers are rather generously given an office and formal accreditation.

但俄罗斯针对北约的行径却更下作了。针对美国可能在波兰和罗马尼亚安装导弹防御系统的计划，总参谋长尼古莱?马卡洛夫最近公开谈论对这些系统发动先发制人的打击。波罗的海国家是北约最脆弱的成员国，俄罗斯在它与这些国家的边境上举行了耀武扬威式的军事演习。新近重登总统宝座的弗拉基米尔?普京又重新开始非难西方了。他有意回避北约下周的芝加哥峰会；他也回避G8峰会，哪怕美国东道主为了讨好他而改变了峰会在芝加哥举行的初衷。虽说北约非常大方地正式认可了俄罗斯军事观察家在北约总部的存在，还给了他们一间办公室；但俄罗斯还是对北约在布鲁塞尔的总部进行间谍活动，这体现了它残存的冷战思维。

What should be done? Nobody is challenging the status quo publicly. But in private, some see a bargain: America stops standing up to Russia in Europe, in return for Kremlin concessions on issues that America really cares about, such as a new nuclear-weapons deal. That would include America rejigging its missile-defence plans, to leave out any bases in countries that were once part of the Soviet empire.

北约该怎样做呢？没有谁公开质疑这种现状，但有人私下认为可以进行一项交易：美国不再与俄罗斯在欧洲对抗，以换取俄罗斯在一些美国真正看重的问题上的让步，如达成一项新的核武器协议。所谓不对抗包括美国调整其导弹防御计划、不考虑在前苏联加盟共和国的领土上建立任何军事基地。

A softer stance could also include downgrading NATO’s planned exercises next year in Europe. Named “Steadfast Jazz”, these will be potentially the biggest manoeuvres since the end of the cold war. They are largely a response to troubling Russian exercises in 2009, which simulated the invasion of the Baltic states (followed by a dummy nuclear attack on Warsaw). Some cash-strapped European countries would be happy not to pay for their part in expensive wargames.

一种更软弱的立场还包括让北约明年在欧洲的军演计划降级。名为“坚定爵士乐”的这次军演有可能成为冷战结束以来规模最大的一次，其主要目的是对2009年的俄罗斯军演做出回应。俄罗斯的那次军演模拟了对波罗的海国家的入侵，此后还进行了一次对华沙的虚拟核攻击，这让北约很不安。如果可以不必为自己在昂贵的军事游戏中扮演的角色掏钱，一些经济不宽裕的欧洲国家自然很乐意。

Wooing Russia this way would be a mistake. America’s missile-defence plans are aimed at Iran, not Russia. But they are also a token of transatlantic seriousness about Europe. Any suggestion of making them a bargaining chip unsettles those in Poland and elsewhere who doubt the durability of America’s security relationship with Europe.

以这种方式讨好俄国是错误的。美国的导弹防御计划针对的是伊朗，不是俄罗斯。但它们也象征着美国对大洋彼岸的欧洲的重视。波兰和其他国家中已经有人在怀疑美欧安全关系的持久性了，任何以这些计划作为谈判筹码的做法只能让他们更为不安。 

Big talker 语言的巨人

Russian saber-rattling is not militarily significant: even with its big increase in defence spending of recent years, and the colossal sums promised for the future, Russia is no military match for a united NATO. But it does signal unpleasant thinking at the top, and a desire to bully. The right response from NATO would be to make Steadfast Jazz as realistic a defensive drill as possible. By demonstrating NATO’s resolve, a strong stance would enhance security; just as a weak one would only encourage Russia to pick a bigger stick.

俄罗斯的亮剑行为在军事上意义不大。尽管它近年来大幅度增加了军费开支，尽管它宣称在将来还会保持庞大的增幅，但对于一个联合起来的北约来说，俄罗斯在军事上无法与之匹敌。但这却反映了俄罗斯高层令人不快的思维方式和他们欺凌弱小者的渴望。北约的正确反应应该是让“坚定爵士乐”演习成为一次尽可能逼真的防御演练。通过表达北约的决心显示的强硬立场能够增加安全；这就跟立场软弱会让俄罗斯的威胁更为严重是一个道理。

The irony in all this is that Russia should be far more worried about China in the east and Islamists to the south than about NATO. The alliance is beset with problems: inadequate defence spending, finding a respectable exit from Afghanistan, and America’s “pivot” to Asia. NATO used to worry about a loss of purpose. Indeed, had Russia not antagonized its former empire in the 1990s, NATO might have shut up shop by now. The way things are going, it is lucky that it did not.

令这一切具有讽刺意义的是，相对于担心北约，俄罗斯本应对东面的中国和南面的伊斯兰教主义者更为担心得多。北约这一联盟受到许多问题的困扰：不充分的防务费用、要从阿富汗体面脱身、美国的战略中心向亚洲偏移等。北约曾担心它会失去目的感。的确，如果上世纪90年代俄罗斯不去恐吓它过去的加盟共和国，说不定北约现已关门大吉。依照现在的情况看，幸亏北约还存在。