[Free exchange] [2012.06.02] Silicon sally 数字化冲击
【导读】各国争相下重手笔投资数字化技术，似是认定数字化能促进经济增长。到底数字化与经济增长之间有无关联？如果真有，又是怎么样的关联，又是可以通过些什么方法来实现关联？
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Silicon sally
数字化冲击
Growth through digitisation requires more than faster broadband connections
想以数字化推动经济，光靠更快的宽带接入可不够
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Jun 2nd 2012 | from the print edition
DO DIGITAL economies grow faster than analogue ones? Rich-country leaders seem to think so. G7 and European Union governments are committed to a variety of digital stimulus packages; Australia, the biggest spender, has promised broadband investment of $33.4 billion (or 3% of GDP) to connect 90% of homes at ultra-fast speeds. “Digitisation” involves adopting technologies like wireless phones and internet access to generate, process and share information. It seems to make sense that replacing slow technologies with faster ones might speed up sluggish economies. But does the case for investment stack up?
数字化经济当真比模拟经济增长更快吗？发达国家的领导人们似乎是认了这个理。七国集团和欧盟正致力于发布各种可促进数字化发展的一揽子计划；其中以澳大利亚投入最大，承诺将会投资334亿（或GDP的3%）用于宽带建设，将使90%的家庭享用到最快的宽带接入速度。“数字化”包括采用如无线电话和网络接入的技术去生成、处理和共享信息。用更快速的技术来代替缓慢的技术也许能为滞缓的经济加点速，这似乎有点道理。但如果这些投资当真管用吗？
Economic theory supports digitisation. There is a deeply held belief among economists that better technology and cleverer ideas provide the best explanation of why economies grow. Ideas and information are all-important in growth theory, as is the distribution of cutting-edge knowledge among workers. Investments in computers, broadband and the like—things that help spread ideas quickly and cheaply—should generate growth.
数字化是有经济理论支撑的。更优质的技术和更聪明的创意是为什么经济会增长的最佳解释，经济学家对此深信不疑。创意和信息在增长理论里十分重要，重要性堪比向劳动者传播最先进的技术。对电脑、宽带和诸如之类的投资，有助于更快速更廉价地传播信息——数字化促进增长是在理的。
Digitisation and growth are also highly correlated. The 15-year period between 1995 and 2010 was one of strong economic growth and of a global boom in digitisation. A new index* built by Raul Katz of Columbia Business School and Pantelis Koutroumpis of Imperial College London tracks the effects of this boom across countries. The index adds a wider mix of digitisation metrics than previous rankings, using 21 measures including broadband speed, coverage and reliability, and the cost and use of mobile telephones. It also adds to existing indices by measuring the many ways digital networks can be used, from the availability of online shopping to the provision of e-government services like road taxes for cars. Finally, it measures the ability of workers to use new digital technologies.
数字化和增长也是高度关联的。在1995年到2010年的15年间有过一次经济的强劲增长和数字化的全球热潮。哥伦比亚商学院的Raul Katz和伦敦帝国学院的Pantelis Koutroumpis建立了一个新指数来跟踪比较不同国家间数字化热潮所带来的影响。与之前的排名方式相比，此新指数加入了更多样化的方式来衡量数字化成果，共采用了21种方法，包括宽带接入速度、覆盖范围和稳定性，以及移动电话的投入成本和使用情况。它还衡量了数字网络被应用的诸多方式，包括网上购物的可用性以及电子政府服务的提供比如道路税的在线缴纳。最后，它还衡量了劳动者使用新数字技术的能力。
Digitisation varies hugely by country and region (see chart). Norway leads the pack, closely followed by other advanced economies. Emerging-market digitisation has started to catch up, though in some countries like India and Indonesia the pace of progress is decidedly dial-up. The data also show that there is much further to go on the road to full digitisation. Globally there are fewer than ten fixed broadband connections per 100 people; the range runs from close to 40 per 100 people in Hong Kong to below one in Kenya. In some countries, a huge gap exists between availability and usage. Senegal, for example, has mobile-broadband coverage for 30% of the population, but only 1% use it.
不同国家和地区的数字化发展差异很大（如图所示）。挪威领先群国，紧随其后的是其他发达经济体。新兴市场的数字化开始迎头追赶，尽管在某些国家如印度和印度尼西亚，数字化的发展明显仍是龟速。数据也表明，要想实现全球数字化仍是任重而道远。就全球水平来说，固定宽带的使用率平均只有10%；香港高达40%，而肯亚则不到1%。在某些国家，在普及率和利用率相差很大。比如说，塞内加尔的无线宽带覆盖率为人口的30%，但使用率仅有1%。
Establishing a link between digitisation and growth is one thing; proving which way causality runs quite another. Growth could be making consumers richer, so that they buy and use more digital technology. Or it could be that richer governments are able to invest more. In these cases growth is causing digitisation, not the other way round. A 2011 paper by Nina Czernich, Oliver Falck, Tobias Kretschmer and Ludger W?ssmann of the University of Munich gets round this problem. The paper looks at broadband adoption for a group of 25 OECD countries for the years 1996-2007. The researchers first collect data on the telephone and cable networks on which broadband depends. Because these networks predate broadband, any relationship between them and broadband uptake is independent of current growth and investment. This allows the authors to create a stripped-down measure of broadband penetration, which can then be tested to see how it affects economic expansion. The findings are striking: a ten-percentage-point increase in broadband penetration results in an increase in annual per-head growth of 0.9-1.5 percentage points. At an aggregate level, digitisation boosts growth rates.
数字化和增长有所关联是一码事；证明两者如何相互影响又是另一码事。经济增长可以提升消费者的收入，所以他们会购入和使用更多的电子技术产品。又或是更发达的国家能投资更多。在这些情况下，是经济增长带动了数字化的发展，而不是反过来。慕尼黑大学的Nina Czernich, Oliver Falck、 Tobias Kretschmer 和 Ludger W?ssmann在2011年所撰写的一篇论文对此作出了论证。该论文探究了25个经合组织在1996-2007年间的宽带使用情况。研究者们先是收集了宽带是依赖电话网络还是有线电视网络的数据。因为这些网络的应用早于宽带，它们和宽带发展之间的任何关联是与现在的增长和投资无关的。由此作者们可得以创造出一个衡量宽带渗透率的分解方法，通过此方法可以看出宽带渗透率如何影响经济增长。研究结果是惊人的:宽带渗透率每提高10%，会导致年度人均经济增长提高0.9-1.5%。总的来说，数字化确是提高了经济增长率。
That suggests the greatest gains from going digital will come in emerging economies, given their lowly starting-points. Many are acting accordingly. Brazil has cut taxes, both for firms making digital technology and for shoppers buying tablet computers. South Korea has invested hugely in broadband, jumping from 11th to 2nd in the digitisation rankings. For the growth-hungry policymaker, however, digital stimulus is not the end of the story.
如此看来，向数字化发展获益最大的将会是新兴经济体，因为它们的起点晚。许多国家都采取了利好的相应措施。巴西为制造电子技术产品的公司和购买平板电脑的客户减税。韩国在宽带上投资甚大手笔，数字化排名也从第11位跃升至第2位。然而，对于巴望经济增长的决策者，促进数字化发展的大手笔还远未到收手之时。
Analysis that looks more deeply at individual industries finds that digitisation on its own is not enough. Faster information boosts output only when matched with more astute ways of interpreting and acting on new data. American policing is one example: in the late 1980s less than 20% of police forces used computers, but by the early 2000s over 90% did. Recent analysis by Luis Garicano and Paul Heaton of the London School of Economics shows that digitisation alone did not improve policing outcomes. But some forces matched the new computers and data with better ways of working: more accurate mapping of crime, daily adjustment of officer deployment to crime hotspots and regular evaluation of results. Productivity was boosted.
更关注个体行业的分析家们发现，单靠数字化不会有大作为。要更快速地传播信息，还要更精通于理解和应用新信息，两者结合才能促进产量。美国警察系统就是个例子：在1980年代末只有少于20%的警察机关使用电脑，但到了2000年初已有90%的使用率。伦敦经济学院的Luis Garicano和Paul Heaton的最新分析表明，单靠数字化并无法改善警察机关工作成效。但某些机关利用新电脑和信息优化了工作方式：更精准定位罪犯，日常调整犯案热点的警力部署，以及对破犯案结果的定期评估。工作成效由此大大提升。
Digitally enhanced
推进数字化
Similarly, some firms are better than others at marrying new digital technology to fresh ways of operating. A new study by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University, Raffaella Sadun of Harvard Business School and John Van Reenen of the London School of Economics supports the idea that digitisation alone is not enough to drive growth. Their data show that American firms tend to have more information technology than comparable European ones, and are better at squeezing productivity out of it.
同样地，一些公司在结合新电子技术来创新经营操作方式上要比其他公司做得更好。由斯坦福大学的Nicholas Bloom、哈佛商学院的Raffaella Sadun以及伦敦经济学院的John Van Reenen共同所做的一项新研究证明，单靠数字化是无法推动增长的。数据表明，美国公司往往要比与其相近的欧洲公司掌握更多的信息技术，且更懂得如何从中获取生产成效。
This finding is explained largely by management practices. American firms are more aggressive in promoting and rewarding high-performing staff, for instance; they are also quicker to remove underperformers. Since the ability to monitor and measure performance is improved by having better technologies, digitisation seems to complement the American way of managing. This may be one reason why American productivity growth—concentrated in sectors that use information technology intensively—has outstripped that in the EU over the past 15 years. The machines matter, in other words, but so do the men.
这个结论主要通过管理实践来证明。比如，美国的公司更积极主动去提拔和激励表现出色的员工；也更麻利地开除表现不佳的员工。有了更好的技术，美国公司更易监管和衡量员工的表现，数字化似乎完善了美国的管理方式。这也许就是为什么美国的生产率增长正是集中在密集使用信息技术的行业——在过去15里，在这点上一直比欧洲公司做得好。换言之，机器很重要，但操控机器的人也同样重要。
