[Economics focus] [2012.06.23] The munificent seven 第七次的慷慨
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The munificent seven
第七次的慷慨
The Federal Reserve extends Operation Twist
美联储延长“扭曲操作”
Jun 23rd 2012 | Washington, DC | from the print edition
THE Federal Reserve cannot be accused of sitting on its hands. On June 20th it announced its seventh instalment of unconventional monetary policy since running out of orthodox ammunition in late 2008, when short-term interest rates fell, in effect, to zero. In its latest salvo, the Fed said it would purchase $267 billion of long-term bonds by the end of the year, paid for from the proceeds of sales of short-term bonds in its portfolio.
美联储不该被指责坐视不理。在6月20日的会议上，美联储宣布了它自08年末用尽了常规手段后的第七次非常规货币政策，而此时的短期利率已减低到实质为零的状况。这次美联储表示，在年底前它将用抛售短期债券的所得，回购总额2670亿美元的长期债券。
The move extends a programme, nicknamed Operation Twist, announced last autumn and due to expire this month, under which the Fed has swapped $400 billion of short-term bonds for long-term ones. Previous initiatives have included purchasing bonds with newly created money (“quantitative easing”, or QE), reinvesting the proceeds of maturing bonds, and verbally committing to keeping rates near zero for ever longer periods. All are designed to drag long-term interest rates down in the hope of stimulating demand.
这一举措延长了“扭曲操作”的期限，这一项目最初在去年秋天公布时，本计划到本月终止，并预计通过该操作用短期债券置换总额4000亿美元的长期债券。先前的手段包括，凭借新发放的货币（“量化宽松”）回购债券，用已到期的债券收益作再投资，并口头承诺将把利率长期控制在接近零的水平。所有的这些举措都旨在压低长期利率从而刺激需求。
Like its predecessors, this latest round of monetary easing was motivated by the economy’s failure to grow as quickly as the Fed had forecast. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s main policymaking body, now expect growth of between 1.9% and 2.4% this year, down sharply from their April forecast of growth between 2.4% and 2.9%. This time a year ago, FOMC members were expecting growth of about 3.5% in 2012.
和之前的情况一样，执行此次宽松政策的诱因仍旧是美国经济未能按照美联储预期的势头增长。作为美联储的重要政策制定者，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）现在对今年经济增速的预期在1.9%到2.4%之间，相比于他们在今年4月份预测的2.4%到2.9%之间已有了大幅下降。然而一年之前的这时候，他们曾认为2012年的增速能达到3.5%。
They also downgraded their outlook for the next two years. They expect almost no improvement in unemployment, now 8.2%, in 2013. And although the Fed set an inflation target of 2% in January, many Fed officials apparently expect to undershoot it between now and 2014.
同时，还降低了他们对未来两年的展望。他们估计，如今8.2%的失业率在2013年仍将难以改善。另外，纵然美联储在一月曾定下了2%的通胀目标，但许多联储官员认为现在至2014年间这个通胀目标是明显达不到的。
The big question, given these downbeat forecasts, is why the Fed has not acted even more aggressively. The pessimistic answer is that it cannot do more. In theory, QE allows unlimited purchases of debt, of many different flavours. But Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, frets over the risks of doing so: a bigger balance-sheet that is harder to shrink later; impaired markets; and financial instability, a euphemism for bubbles. What the Fed would really like, he said, is for Europe to fix its crisis and America’s politicians to avoid the “fiscal cliff”, the near-simultaneous squeeze of tax increases and spending cuts programmed to occur at year-end.
在这一片唱衰中，美联储为何不采取更为激进的举措呢？一种悲观的说法是，美联储已经难有作为了。理论上来说，QE能够无限制的购买债务，满足诸多需求。但美联储主席伯南克担忧这样做的种种后果，比如，日后难以缩减的资产负债余额；对市场的损害，以及金融市场的不稳定（泡沫的委婉说辞）。伯南克说道，美联储希望看到的是，欧洲能解决他们的经济危机，而美国的政客们则要能避免“财政悬崖”，即在年末同时出现税收增加和开支缩减以造成对经济的打压。（“财政悬崖”的出处见文章后的补充部分）
A more optimistic answer is that, before long, the Fed will do more. Mr Bernanke promised the Fed will act if needed. At present, it is trying to sort through the economic data to figure out how much of the recent weakening in America’s economy is real, rather than a statistical fluke. It is also awaiting the outcome of events in Europe. Sadly, developments on both sides of the Atlantic seem likely to lead to more action.
而乐观的回答是，不久，美联储就会更有所作为。伯南克曾保证，美联储会在必要的时候有所行动。而现在需要的做的是借助经济数据来搞清楚最近美国经济的不振在多大程度上是真实的，而非偶然的统计结果。同时，他们也在等待欧洲那边的进展。不幸的是，看来大西洋两头的情况都会需要采取更多措施来改善。
What form would such action take? By the end of the year, when the Fed has sold the last of its short-term bonds, Operation Twist will have reached its limit. That suggests QE would be the favoured option, particularly if the Fed can wait until the election campaign is over and act without being accused of helping one candidate or another. If the economy really appears to be heading over the fiscal cliff, the Fed will not want to worsen the impact by holding back a monetary cushion.
究竟会是怎样的措施呢？到今年年末，当现行的“扭曲操作”走到尽头。又一轮“量化宽松”会是颇受青睐的选择。当大选告终，这一政策的实施不会再被指责偏利于某些候选人时尤其如此。倘若最终美国经济真的走向财政悬崖，美联储绝不会不愿放手任由事态恶化。
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补充：
Fisical cliff “财政悬崖” （感谢 code 的补充）
Quote：“汉森所说的不确定因素，主要是指因为大选而拖延决断的各类财政改革提案。这些悬而未决的提案，组成了汉森所说的“财政悬崖”(Fiscal Cliff)，包括到今年底即将到期的布什政府时期延续下来的工资税及其他税收削减政策是否可能延长，奥巴马签署的减免个人所得税的法案在年底到期后是否可能延续，失业保险延长是否到期，处理债务上限问题相关的财政开支是否缩减等。这些将在今年年底到明年陆续成为参众两院辩论的焦点。“
