价值漫步投资阅读
1976 年《金融分析师杂志》本杰明·格雷厄姆访谈
Q：您见证了华尔街 60 多年的风风雨雨，请问您如何看待股票？
In the light of your 60-odd years of experience in Wall Street what is your overall view of common stocks?
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A：股票有两个显著特征，一个是投资性，一个是投机性。公司不断将未分配利润用于再投资，股票代表的净资产日益增加。长期来看，股票的投资价值和平均市场价格随之上升。我没发现股票的长期上升过程明显受到通货膨胀的正面或负面影响。与此同时，许多股票经常出现非理智的极端波动，暴涨暴跌，因为大多数人改不了根深蒂固的投机或赌博的倾向，总是被希望、恐惧和贪婪左右。
Common stocks have one important characteristics and one important speculative characteristic.Their investment value and average market price tend to increase irregularly but persistently over the decades, as their net worth builds up through the reinvestment of undistributed earnings--incidentally, with no clear-cut plus or minus responseto inflation. However, most of the time common stocks are subject to irrationaland excessive price fluctuations in both directions, as the consequence of the ingrained tendency of most people to speculate or gamble--i.e., to give way to hope, fear and greed.
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Q：请问您如何看待作为金融机构的华尔街？
What is your view of Wall Street as a financial institution?
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A：不屑一顾。我觉得股市像约翰·班扬 (John Bunyan) 笔下的名利场，像法尔斯塔夫 (Falstaff) 一样可笑可怜。股市经常堕落成疯人院，“一片喧嚣躁动，毫无意义可言”(a tale full of sound andfury, signifying nothing)。股市像一个巨型洗衣房，各大机构都拿着一大堆衣服来回洗，你洗我的，我洗你的，现在每年成交 3000 万股，莫名其妙，毫无道理。股市的交易机制倒是很了不起，井然有序。
A highly unfavorable--even a cynical--one. The Stock Exchanges appear to me chiefly as a John Bunyan type of Vanity Fair, or a Falstaffian joke, that frequentlydegenerates into a madhouse--'a tale full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.' The stock market resembles a huge laundry in which institution stake in large blocks of each other's washing--nowadays to the tune of 30 million shares a day--without true rhyme or reason.But technologically it is remarkably well-organized.
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Q：请问您如何看待整个金融圈？
What is yourview of the financial community as a whole?
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A：大多数经纪人、金融分析师、投资顾问有能力、有品德、诚实可靠。他们的问题是没经历过严峻市场行情的考验，缺乏对股票的深入理解，不懂股市这头野兽的本性。他们总是把市场的想法和自己的想法太当回事了，总是拼命做那些没用的工作。
Most of the stock brokers, financial analysts, investment advisers, etc., are above average in intelligence, business honesty and sincerity. But they lack adequate experience with all types of security markets and an overall understanding of common stocks--of what I call 'the nature of the beast.' They tend to take the market and themselves too seriously. They spend a large part of their time trying, valiantly and ineffectively, to do things they can't do well.
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Q：具体是做了哪些无用功呢？
What sort of things, for example?
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A：预测短期和长期经济走势和股价变化，选择短期内可能表现最好的行业和个股。
To forecast short- and long-term changes in theeconomy, and in the price level of common stocks, to select the most promising industry groups and individual issues--generally for the near-term future.
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Q：普通的基金经理能长期战胜道指或标普指数吗？
Can the average manager of institutional fundsobtain better results than the DowJones Industrial Average or the Standard &Poor's Index over the years?
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A：不可能。股市是基金经理构成的，他们不可能自己战胜自己，这存在逻辑矛盾。
No. In effect, that would mean that the stock market experts as a whole could beat themselves--a logical contradiction.
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Q：您认为普通的机构客户应当满足于和道指类似的业绩吗？
Do you think, therefore, that the average institutional client should be content with the DJIA results or the equivalent?
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A：是的。不仅如此，机构客户还应该提出这样的要求，例如，在五年的时间里取得与指数不相上下的业绩才支付标准的管理费。
Yes. Not only that, but I think they should require approximately such results over, say, a moving five-year average period as a condition for paying standard management fees to advisors and the like.
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Q：有人反对购买指数基金，理由是不同的投资者有不同的需求，您怎么看？
What about the objection made against so-called index funds that different investors have different requirements?
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A：这是一句废话，是用来解释业绩差的借口。所有的投资者都希望能取得良好业绩，既然是能做到的业绩，他们就有资格要求做到。投资者没理由接受比指数基金还差的业绩，也不应该为跑输指数的业绩付费。
At bottom that is only a convenient cliche or alibito justify the mediocre record of the past. All investors want good results from their investments, and are entitled to them to the extent that they are actually obtainable. I see no reason why they should be content with results inferior to those of an indexed fund or pay standard fees for such inferior results.
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Q：我们接着谈谈个人投资者。机构拥有大量资源，获取信息的能力更强。您认为个人投资者与机构竞争是否处于劣势地位？
Turning now to individual investors, do you think that they are at a disadvantage compared with the institutions, because of thelatter's huge resources, superior facilities for obtaining information, etc.?
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A：恰恰相反，个人投资者与大型机构相比有很大的优势。
On the contrary, the typical investor has a great advantage over the large institutions.
Q：为什么？Why?
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A：主要是因为机构选择股票的范围很小，他们只能在三四百家大公司的股票里选择，只能在这个范围内做研究和决策。个人投资者就不同了，《标普股票指南》中的 3000 多只股票他们可以随便选。按照自己的方法和喜好，个人投资者从 100 只里至少能找到 1 只值得投资的，这就有 30 多只了。
Chiefly because these institutions have a relatively small field of common stocks to choose from--say 300 to 400 huge corporations--and they are constrained more or less to concentrate their research and decisionson this much over-analyzed group. By contrast, most individuals can choose atany time among some 3000 issues listed in the Standard &Poor's MonthlyStock Guide. Following a wide variety of approaches and preferences, the individual investor should at all times be able to locate at least one per cent of the total list--say, 30 issues or more--that offer attractive buying opportunities.
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Q：您建议普通投资者该如何长期投资？
What general rules would you offer the individual investor for his investment policy over the years?
A：我有三点建议
Let me suggest three such rules:
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(1) The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means, in sum, that he should beable to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal,objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money'sworth for his purchase--in other words, that he has a margin of safety, invalue terms, to protect his commitment.
(2) The investorshould have a definite selling policy for all his common stock commitments, corresponding to his buying techniques. Typically, he should set a reasonable profit objective on each purchase--say 50 to 100 per cent--and a maximum holding period for this objective to be realized--say, two to three years. Purchases not realizing the gain objective at the end of the holding period should be sold out at themarket.
(3) Finally,the investor should always have a minimum percentage of his total portfolio incommon stocks and a minimum percentagein bond equivalents. I recommend at least 25 per centof the total at all times in each category. A good case can be made for a consistent 50-50 division here,with adjustments for changes in the market level. This means the investor would switch some of his stocks into bonds on significant rises of the market level,and vice-versa when the market declines. I would suggest, in general, anaverage seven- or eight-year maturity for his bond holdings.
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(1) 个人投资者应当始终只做投资者，不做投机者。也就是说，在做每一笔投资、确定每一个买入价位时，都要有充分的理由，不受个人主观情绪影响，客观地分析，确定自己买入的价值高于价格，确定自己的投资有安全边际的保护。
(2) 每一笔股票投资都要有明确的卖出策略，具体的卖出策略与买入策略是相对应的。具体来说，一个是每笔投资都要确定合理的获利目标，例如，50-100%；另一个是实现获利目标之前最长等待多长时间，例如，两到三年。如果持有时间已经到了，还没实现获利目标，应当按市场价卖出。
(3) 最后一点，投资者应当在投资组合中设定投资股票和债券的最低比例。我建议无论何时股票或债券的最低比例都不低于 25%。最好是各占 50%，并随着市场涨跌而调整。在股市大涨时，将一部分股票换成债券，在股市大跌时，将一部分债券换成股票。我建议选择七或八年到期的债券。
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Q：在选择投资组合中的股票时，您建议在众多股票中仔细研究、精心挑选吗？
In selecting the common stock portfolio, do you advise careful study of and selectivity among different issues?
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A：总的来说，我不建议这么做。我以前提倡深入细致地分析证券，寻找出色的投资机会，现在我的看法有所改变。40 多年前，我们撰写的教科书《证券分析》最初问世时，深入细致地分析能够获得丰厚的回报，但是现在的环境和那时相比已经大不相同。在那个年代，任何训练有素的证券分析师都能通过细致地分析找到低估的品种，从而称职地完成自己的工作。现如今，做分析研究工作的人实在太多了，即使仍然像以前一样努力研究，追求选出更值得投资的品种，但收益率却可能高不了多少，不值得付出那么多努力。现在大学教授普遍认同的“有效市场”学说也这么认为，我对有效市场理论的认同仅限于此。
In general, no. I am no longer an advocate ofelaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook 'Graham and Dodd'was first published; but the situation has changed a great deal since then. In the old days any well-trained security analyst could do a good professional job of selecting undervalued issues through detailed studies; but in the light of the enormous amount of research now being carried on, I doubt whether in most cases such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost. To that very limited extent I'm on the side of the 'efficient market' school of thought now generally accepted by the professors.
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Q：请问您现在认为应当如何构建投资组合？
What general approach to portfolio formation do you advocate?
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A：我主张用简单的方法，只要用一个或两个指标确定很便宜就行了，不寄希望于组合中的哪只个股有多好的表现，只是依靠整体投资组合的表现取胜。
Essentially, a highly simplified one that applies a single criteria or perhaps two criteria tothe price to assure that full value is present and that relies for its results on theperformance of the portfolio as a whole--i.e., on the group results--rather than on theexpectations for individual issues.
Q：能具体讲讲个人投资者如何构建并调整自己的股票投资组合吗？
Can you indicate concretely how an individual investor should create and maintain his common stock portfolio?
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A：我说要简单，有两种方法都很简单。第一种方法适用范围有限，但是在我们管理中型基金的 30 多年里，这种方法的可靠性始终如一，业绩也让人满意。第二种方法是我们这几年新研究出来的。第二种方法比第一种方法适用范围更广泛，而且它符合逻辑、使用简单、业绩良好。我们通过回测发现，在从 1925 年到 1975 年的这 50多年里，第二种方法能实现优秀的业绩。
I can give two examples of my suggested approach to this problem. One appears severelylimited in its application, but we found it almost unfailingly dependable and satisfactoryin 30-odd years of managing moderate-sized investment funds. The second represents agreat deal of new thinking and research on our part in recent years. It is much wider in itsapplication than the first one, but it combines the three virtues of sound logic, simplicityof application, and an extraordinarily good performance record, assuming--contrary tofact--that it had actually been followed as now formulated over the past 50 years--from1925 to 1975.
Q：请详细讲讲这两种方法。
Some details, please, on your two recommended approaches.
A：先说第一种适用范围比较有限的方法。这种方法是只购买低于营运资金（净流动资产）的股票，将厂房和其他固定资产忽略不计，用流动资产减去所有负债。我们当年管理基金的时候主要就用这种方法，在 30 多年里，我们用这种方法每年获得的平均收益率至少在 20% 以上。问题是从 50 年代中后期开始，由于市场持续上涨，这种投资机会越来越少。在 1973-74 的下跌中，这种投资机会才大量重现。1976 年 1 月，我们在《标普股票指南》中找到了 300 多只符合这个标准的股票，大约占股票总数的 10%。我认为这种投资机制万无一失。前面说过了，不是依赖个股的表现，而是靠组合取得预期收益。
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My first, more limited, technique confines itself to the purchase of common stocks at lessthan their working-capital value, or net-current-asset value, giving no weight to the plantand other fixed assets, and deducting all liabilities in full from the current assets. We usedthis approach extensively in managing investment funds, and over a 30-odd year period we must have earned an average of some 20 per cent per year from this source. For awhile, however, after the mid-1950's, this brand of buying opportunity became veryscarce because of the pervasive bull market. But it has returned in quantity since the1973-74 decline. In January 1976 we counted over 300 such issues in the Standard &Poor's Stock Guide--about 10 per cent of the total. I consider it a foolproof method ofsystematic investment--once again, not on the basis of individual results but in terms ofthe expectable group outcome.
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Q：最后，请您讲讲第二种方法。
Finally, what is your other approach?
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A：第二种方法的理念和第一种是一样的，即通过一个或两个简单的指标，找出低于当前价值或内在价值的股票，从而构建一个组合。我推荐的指标是过去 12 个月报告盈利的7倍。个人投资者也可以使用其他指标，例如，当前股息率高于 7% 或市净率低于0.8。我们正在研究各个单项指标在过去 50 年里的业绩。目前来看，每个指标都能稳定取得每年15%以上的收益率，是道指同期收益率的两倍。这个方法第一符合逻辑、第二应用简单、第三历史业绩出色，所以我对这个方法特别有信心。归根结底，我说的这个方法是给真正的投资者的。在普罗大众从极端乐观到极端悲观的反复摇摆中，他们用这个方法可以游刃有余。
This is similar to the first in its underlying philosophy. It consists of buying groups ofstocks at less than their current or intrinsic value as indicated by one or more simplecriteria. The criterion I prefer is seven times the reported earnings for the past 12 months.You can use others--such as a current dividend return above seven per cent or book valuemore than 120 percent of price, etc. We are just finishing a performance study of theseapproaches over the past half-century--1925-1975. They consistently show results of 15per cent or better per annum, or twice the record of the DJIA for this long period. I haveevery confidence in the threefold merit of this general method based on (a) sound logic,(b) simplicity of application, and (c) an excellent supporting record. At bottom it is atechnique by which true investors can exploit the recurrent excessive optimism andexcessive apprehension of the speculative public.
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