1.I want to start on a slightly somber note.
我想让我的开篇稍显忧郁点。
2.Two thousand and seven, five years ago, my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer, stage IIB.
2007年，也就是5年前， 我的妻子被诊断出患有乳癌， 乳癌2期B阶段。
3.Now, looking back, the most harrowing part of that experience was not just the hospital visits -- these were very painful for my wife, understandably so.
现在，回想起当初，那场经历 最令人心生畏惧的 不仅仅是到医院的就诊-- 不难想象，我的妻子经历了多少痛苦。
4.It was not even the initial shock of knowing that she had breast cancer, just 39 years old, absolutely no history of cancer in her family.
也不是最初的恐惧，当得知了年仅39岁的她 患上了乳癌， 她的家族史里也从没人患过这种病。
5.The most horrifying and agonizing part of the whole experience was we were making decisions after decisions after decisions that were being thrust upon us.
整段经历中 最最令人惶恐和痛苦的 是我们需要做面对一个又一个无法回避 且又不得不做的决定。
6.Should it be a mastectomy? Should it be a lumpectomy?
应该要做乳房切除手术呢？还是做乳房肿瘤切除手术？
7.Should it be a more aggressive form of treatment, given that it was stage IIB?
是否因为是乳癌2期B阶， 所以应该采取更激进的治疗方式呢？
8.With all the side effects?
那些副作用怎么办？
9.Or should it be a less aggressive form of treatment?
还是要采取稍微保守点的治疗方式呢？
10.And these were being pressed upon us by the doctors.
医生的这些问题 压得我们喘不过气来。
11.Now, you could ask this question, why were the doctors doing this?
那么你或许会问， 医生干嘛要这么做啊？
12.Now, a simplistic answer would be, the doctors are doing this because they want to protect themselves legally.
可能有人会说， 医生们这样做，是想从法律上保护自己。
13.I think that is too simplistic.
我觉得这答案未免太幼稚了。
14.These are well-meaning doctors, some of them have gone on to become very good friends.
这些都是善良的医生， 有些还和病人成为了非常好的朋友。
15.They probably were simply following the wisdom that has come down the ages, this adage that when you're making decisions, especially decisions of importance,
他们只是遵循着一个流传已久道理 有句老话是这样的，当你在做决定的时候， 尤其面临重大决定时，
16.it's best to be in charge, it's best to be in control, it's best to be in the driver's seat.
最好是将一切置于掌控之中， 就如坐在驾驶座上。
17.And we were certainly in the driver's seat, making all these decisions, and let me tell you, if some of you had been there, it was a most agonizing and harrowing experience.
而当时我们就坐在“驾驶座”上， 操控着一切决定，让我告诉你， 如果你们经历过同样的情况， 你会觉得非常苦恼和恐慌。
18.Which got me thinking.
这让我略有所思，
19.I said, is there any validity to this whole adage that when you're making decisions, it's best to take the driver's seat, be in charge, be in control?
我想，是否应该对这句老话， 设一个界定范围。 稳坐“驾驶座”，将一切操控于手掌之中， 就一定能处于上风吗？
20.Or are there contexts where we're far better off taking the passenger's seat and have someone else drive?
又或者，当我们选择“乘客座”而让别人驾驶时， 是否会出现更好的结果？
21.For example, a trusted financial advisor, could be a trusted doctor, etc.
例如，一个值得信赖的理财顾问， 也可以变成一个值得信赖的医生，等等。
22.And since I study human decision making, I said, I'm going to run some studies to find some answers.
由于我研究的是关于人类的决策制定， 所以我打算做一些调查 以此获取一些信息。
23.And I'm going to share one of these studies with you today.
今天我将与你们一起分享我的研究成果。
24.So, imagine that all of you are participants in the study.
现在设想你们都参与到我的研究中来。
25.I want to tell you that what you're going to do in the study is you're going to drink a cup of tea.
我会告诉你说你们在这个研究中所需要做的 就是接下来你们要喝一杯茶。
26.If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why in a few seconds from now.
如果你感到不解，没关系，我等下会为你解答。
27.You are going to solve a series of puzzles, and I'm going to show you examples of these puzzles momentarily.
你们将要解答一系列的问题， 我等一下就给你们举一些问题的例子。
28.And the more puzzles you solve, the greater the chances that you'll win some prizes.
你能解答的问题越多， 你就有更大的机率赢得奖品。
29.Now, why do you have to consume the tea?
那么，你为什么要喝这一杯茶？
30.Why? Because it makes a lot of sense.
为什么？因为这很符合常规，
31.In order to solve these puzzles effectively, if you think about it, your mind needs to be in two states simultaneously.
因为你要更有效地去解答这些问题。 如果你去思考了，你的大脑会同时处于两种状态。
32.Right? It needs to be alert, for which caffeine is very good.
对吧？它需要处于警惕状态， 这时咖啡因是有益的。
33.Simultaneously, it needs to be calm.
同时，它也需要处于冷静的状态。
34.Not agitated, calm. For which chamomile is very good.
不焦虑，要沉着。这时甘菊就能帮上忙了。
35.Now comes the between-subjects design, the AB design, the AB testing.
现在轮到组间设计了， 所谓的组合设计，组合测试。
36.So what I'm going to do is randomly assign you to one of two groups.
我所要做的，就是将你们 随机地分成两组。
37.So imagine that there is an imaginary line out here, so everyone here will be group A, everyone out here will be group B.
想象一下这儿有根虚线， 这边的人是A组， 这边的人则是B组。
38.Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do is I'm going to show you these two teas, and I'm asking you, I'll go ahead and ask you, to choose your tea. So you can choose which of the two tea you want.
现在，对A组的人，我将要做的， 就是给你们这两种茶， 并且要你，我直接就要你 选择一杯茶。你就选你想要的那杯就行。
39.You can decide, what is your mental state: Okay, I'm going to choose the caffeinated tea, I'm going to choose the chamomile tea.
你可以决定你大脑要哪种状态： 好了，我决定选有咖啡因的茶， 我决定选有甘菊的那杯茶。
40.So you're going to be in charge, you're going to be in control, you're going to be in the driver's seat.
你将会给自己做主， 掌控自己的决定，坐上那张“驾驶座”。
41.You folks, I'm going to show you these two teas, but you don't have a choice.
对于B组的人，我同样给你们两种茶， 但你们没得做决定。
42.I'm going to give you one of these two teas, and keep in mind, I'm going to pick one of these two teas at random for you.
我会给你两种茶中的其中一种， 记住，我会亲自随机地 为你们选某一种茶。
43.And you know that.
而且你们也知道这个规则。
44.So if you think about it, this is an extreme case scenario, because in the real world, whenever you are taking passenger's seat, very often the driver is going to be someone you trust,
所以你会觉得，这是个特殊的案例， 因为在现实中， 无论何时你坐上“乘客”的位置， 大多情况下“司机”都是你信任的人，
45.an expert, etc. So this is an extreme case scenario.
例如一个专家，等等。所以这是个特殊的案例。
46.Now, you're all going to consume the tea.
现在你们都要喝这杯茶。
47.So imagine that you are taking the tea now, we'll wait for you to finish the tea.
想象一下你们正在喝茶， 我们会等你喝完的。
48.We'll give another five minutes for the ingredient to have its effects.
我们会留5分钟让茶中的成分发挥作用。
49.Now you're going to have 30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.
现在你们有30分钟解答15个问题。
50.Here's an example of the puzzle you're going to solve.
这是你们要解答的问题的一个例子。（给下列字母重新排序使之成为有意义的单词）
51.Anyone in the audience want to take a stab?
有谁想要试一下吗？
52.(Audience: Pulpit.) Baba Shiv: Whoa!
（观众;Pulpit,讲坛） Baba Shiv：哇！
53.Okay, that's cool.
好吧，挺牛的。
54.Yeah, so what we do if we had you, who will get the answer, as a participant, we would have calibrated the difficulty level of the puzzles to your expertise.
对了，所以如果你答对了，而且你又是参与者， 我们就会根据你的专业知识， 来调整我们问题的难度。
55.Because we want these puzzles to be difficult.
因为我们就是希望问题再难一些。
56.These are tricky puzzles because your first instinct is to say "tulip," and then you have to unstick yourself.
这些都是暗藏陷阱的问题，因为你的第一反应会说 “tulip郁金香”，然后你自己就会发现不妥并修正。
57.Right? So these have been calibrated to your level of expertise.
对吧？所以这些都是根据你的知识来调整难度的。
58.Because we want this to be difficult, and I'll tell you why momentarily.
因为我们想要它变得有难度，我稍后会告诉你为什么。
59.Now, here's another example.
然后这是另外一个例子。
60.Anyone? It's much more difficult.
有人想试吗？这个会难些。
61.(Audience: Embark.) BS: Yeah, wow. Okay.
（观众：Embark）BS：对了，哇。好吧。
62.So, yeah, so this is again difficult.
嗯，这个也同样有难度。
63.You will say "kambar," then you will have to go, "maker,"
你会说“kambar”，然后你又会试“maker”，
64.and all that, and then you can unstick yourself.
都试过后，你会发现不妥并修正。
65.Okay, so you have 30 minutes now to solve these 15 puzzles.
现在，你们有30分钟来解答这15个问题。
66.Now, the question we're asking here is in terms of the outcome, in terms of the number of puzzles solved, will you in the driver's seat
我们在这里设置这些问题 就是想要得出一个结果， 就是要得出解答出来的问题的数量， 你们是否会在“驾驶座”上
67.end up solving more puzzles, because you are in control, you could decide which tea you will choose, or would you be better off, in terms of the number of puzzles solved?
解答更多的问题， 因为你掌控一切，你可以决定喝哪杯茶， 抑或是你们的结果会更好些， 解答了更多的问题？
68.And systemically what we will show, across a series of studies, is that you, the passengers, even though the tea was picked for you at random,
经过一系列的调查研究， 我们系统地得出， 是你们，所谓的“乘客们”， 尽管你们的茶是随机给予的，
69.will end up solving more puzzles than you, the drivers.
你们会比那些“驾驶员”解答更多的问题。
70.We also observe another thing, and that is, you folks not only are solving fewer puzzles, you're also putting less juice into the task.
我们同时也观察另一个东西， 就是，A组的人不单问题解答得少， 而且也没在这个任务上花多大的心思。
71.Less effort, you're less persistent, and so on.
没那么努力，没那么有毅力，等等。
72.How do you know that?
你是怎么得出来的？
73.Well we have two objective measures.
我们有两个客观指标。
74.One is, what is the time, on average, you're taking in attempting to solve these puzzles?
一个是，在试图解答问题的时候 你们平均花了多长时间？
75.You will spend less time compared to you.
A组的人花的时间比B组的人要少。
76.Second, you have 30 minutes to solve these, are you taking the entire 30 minutes, or are you giving up before the 30 minutes elapse?
另一个是，你们有30分钟去解答问题， 你们是完整用完30分钟呢，还是 在半途就放弃了呢？
77.You will be more likely to give up before the 30 minutes elapse compared to you.
A组的人比B组的人更容易半途而废。
78.So, you're putting in less juice, and therefore the outcome: fewer puzzles solved.
所以，A组的人不怎么重视，得出来的结果是： 解答的问题比另一组少。
79.Now, that brings us now to, why does this happen?
现在我们会疑惑，怎么是这样呢？
80.And under what situations, when would we see this pattern of results where the passenger is going to show better, more favorable outcomes
在什么情况下，我们能够得出这样的答案 那就是“乘客”所展示出来的结果
81.compared to the driver?
要比’驾驶员”的还好？
82.It all has to do with when you face what I call the INCA.
这就和你所面临的INCA有关了。
83.It's an acronym that stands for the nature of the feedback you're getting after you've made the decision.
INCA这个缩写意思是 做决定后你所得到的成果的本质
84.So, if you think about it, in this particular puzzle task, it could happen in investing in the stock market, very volatile out there, it could be the medical situation --
细想一下，这种解谜游戏， 也可能发生在股票的投资中， 很反复无常，它也可能出现在医疗场景里--
85.the feedback here is immediate.
产生的结果是即时的。
86.You know the feedback, whether you're solving the puzzles or not.
不管你解不解这个迷，你都知道结果。
87.Right? Second, it is negative.
对吧？其次，是结果都是消极的。
88.Remember, the deck was stacked against you.
记住，因为这些问题具有难度，
89.In terms of the difficulty level of these puzzles.
所以这其实对你很不利。
90.And this can happen in the medical domain.
这种情况会在医学界发生。
91.For example, very early on in the treatment, things are negative, the feedback, before things become positive.
例如，在最初的治疗阶段， 在事情有好转之前，一切结果都是很消极的。
92.Right? It can happen in the stock market.
对吧？这同样也适用于股票市场。
93.Volatile stock market, getting negative feedback that's also immediate.
反复无常的股票市场，得到消极的结果也是即时的。
94.And the feedback in all these cases is concrete.
在这些例子中，结果都是很具体的
95.It's not ambiguous; you know if you've solved the puzzles or not.
没有多大争议；你知道你自己是否解开这些迷。
96.Now, the added one, apart from this immediacy, negative, this concreteness, now you have a sense of agency.
另外，除开这种即时性， 消极的，这种具体性， 你还会有一种背负感。
97.You were responsible for your decision.
你需要对你的决定负责。
98.So what do you do?
那你该怎么办？
99.You focus on the foregone option.
你会专注在先前的选项。
100.You say, you know what? I should have chosen the other tea.
你会说，你知道吗？我本应该选另一杯茶。
101.(Laughter) That casts your decision in doubt, reduces the confidence you have in the decision, reduces the confidence you have in the performance,
（笑声） 这让你怀疑自己的选择， 减少了你做决定的自信， 在解答问题时，
102.the performance in terms of solving the puzzles.
减少了你在表现中的自信，
103.And therefore less juice into the task, fewer puzzles solved, a less favorable outcome compared to you folks.
以致你对这项任务不怎么投入， 相比之下，你就比另一组的少解答了问题，结果也不尽人意。
104.And this can happen in the medical domain, if you think about it.
如果你仔细琢磨，这种情况在医学界是会发生的。
105.Right? A patient in the driver's seat, for example.
对吧？例如，一个病人一旦坐上了“驾驶座”，
106.Less juice, which means keeping herself or himself less physically fit, physically active to hasten the recovery process, which is what is often advocated. You probably wouldn't do that.
就会变得力不从心， 身体也每况愈下，对身体的恢复也大打折扣， 而这却总被人拥护提倡。你可能就不会这样做了。
107.And therefore, there are times when you're facing the INCA, when the feedback is going to be immediate, negative, concrete, and you have the sense of agency,
因此，有时候你需要面对INCA（决定后所得到的成果的本质）， 需面对即时且消极的，具体的， 使你产生背负感的结果，
108.where you're far better off taking the passenger's seat and have someone else drive.
而此时你稳坐“乘客座”并让他人“代驾” 效果则会截然相反。
109.Now, I started off on the somber note.
我一开始 用了忧郁的开篇。
110.I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.
我现在想用乐观点的色调来结尾。
111.It has now been five years, slightly more than five years, and the good news, thank God, is that the cancer is still in remission.
已经过5年了，5年多了吧， 谢天谢地，好消息是， 病情得到了缓解。
112.So it all ends well, but one thing I didn't mention was that very early on into her treatment, my wife and I decided that we will take the passenger's seat.
所以还是挺满意的， 但我还忘了提一件事 就是在她治疗的初期， 我妻子和我决定坐上“乘客座”。
113.And that made so much of a difference in terms of the peace of mind that came with that, we could focus on her recovery.
带着内心的平静“出发”， 心思只放在她的康复上面， 所以我们才有如今的成果
114.We let the doctors make all the decisions, take the driver's seat.
我们让医生为我们做所有的决定， 让他当我们的“司机”。
115.Thank you.
谢谢。
