沃尔特·施洛斯 1994 年：股市赚钱要诀

下面是沃尔特·施洛斯 1994 年写的股市赚钱的 16 个要诀。按自己的理解翻译的，网上有这段文字的翻译，我觉得很多第一句话就翻得不太对……

On common stocks March 10,1994
Walter & Edwin Schloss Associates, L. P.
Factors needed to make money in the stock market
1. Price is the most important factor to use in relation to value.
2. Try to establish the value of the company. Remember that a share
of stock represents a part of a business and is not just a piece of paper.
3. Use book value as a starting point to try and establish the value of the enterprise. Be sure that debt does not equal 100% of the equity. (Capital and surplus for the common stock).
4. Have patience. Stocks don't go up immediately.
5. Don‘t buy on tips or for a quick move. Let the professionals do that, if they can. Don't sell on bad news.
6. Don’t be afraid to be a loner but be sure that you are correct in your judgment. You can't be 100% certain but try to look for weaknesses in your thinking. Buy on a scale and sell on a scale up.
7. Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision.
8. Have a philosophy of investment and try to follow it. The above is a way that I‘ve found successful.
9. Don't be in too much of a hurry to sell. If the stock reaches a price that you think is a fair one, then you can sell but often because a stock goes up say 50%, people say sell it and button up your profit. Before selling try to reevaluate the company again and see where the stock sells in relation to its book value. Be aware of the level of the stock market. Are yields low and P-E ratios high. If the stock market historically high. Are people very optimistic etc?
10 When buying a stock, I find it helpful to buy near the low of the past few years. A stock may go as high as 125 and then decline to 60 and you think it attractive. 3 years before the stock sold at 20 which shows that there is some vulnerability in it.
11. Try to buy assets at a discount than to buy earnings. Earnings can change dramatically in a short time. Usually assets change slowly.
One has to know much more about a company if one buys earnings.
12. Listen to suggestions from people you respect. This doesn’t mean you have to accept them. Remember it's your money and generally it is harder to keep money than to make it. Once you lose a lot of money it is hard to make it back.
13. Try not to let your emotions affect your judgment. Fear and greed are probably the worst emotions to have in connection with the purchase and sale of stocks.
14. Remember the work compounding. For example, if you can make 12% a year and reinvest the money back, you will double your money in 6 yrs, taxes excluded. Remember the rule of 72. Your rate of return into 72 will tell you the number of years to double your money.
15. Prefer stocks over bonds. Bonds will limit your gains and inflation will reduce your purchasing power.
16. Be careful of leverage. It can go against you.

                                                    股市赚钱要诀
                              沃尔特和埃德温施洛斯有限合伙人公司
                                                 1994 年 3 月 10 日
1. 最重要的因素是价格，与价值相比是高是低。
2. 要确定公司的价值是多少。记住，股票代表企业的部分所有权，不只是一纸凭证。
3. 从净资产入手，估算并确定企业的价值。负债一定不能等于 100% 的净资产（普通股的股本和盈余留存）。
4. 有耐心。股票不会立即上涨。
5. 不听消息或抓短线。专业人员要是有这个本事，你别模仿。别因为坏消息卖出。
6. 不害怕孤独，但要确定自己的判断正确。你无法 100% 确定，要寻找自己的逻辑中有什么弱点。下跌时分批买入，上涨时分批卖出。
7. 一旦做了决定，要有勇气相信自己的判断。
8. 找到并追随合适的投资理念。我说的方法是适合我的。
9. 卖出时别太急。你可以在股票涨到了你认为合理的价格时卖出。许多时候只是因为股票涨了，比如涨了 50%，人们就说卖掉锁定利润。卖出之前，要重新评估公司，比较价格与净资产价值。要注意股市的估值水平：是不是股息率较低、市盈率较高？股市是否处于历史高位？人们是否非常乐观？
10. 买入股票时，我发现最好在过去几年的低位附近买入。可能有一只股票最高涨到 125，然后跌到 60，你就动心了。三年前，这只股票的价格是 20。这说明这只股票现在还是有下跌的风险。
11. 要打折买入资产，而不是买盈利。盈利的短期变化可能非常大，而资产一般变化缓慢。要是按盈利买入，对公司的理解就得深得多。
12. 你敬重的人给出了建议要倾听，接不接受你自己决定。记住，钱是你自己的钱，赚钱容易守财难。一旦亏了很多钱，很难再赚回来。
13. 不要让情绪影响判断。买卖股票，最不该有的情绪或许就是贪婪和恐惧。
14. 记住复利原理。例如，你每年赚 12%，并将收益继续投资，不考虑税费，资金会在 6 年以后翻倍。记住 72 法则：用 72 除以你的年收益率就可以知道，资金翻倍要几年时间。
15. 股票比债券好。债券收益有限，通胀会降低购买力。
16. 小心杠杆，小心搬起石头砸自己的脚。