OILSEEDS: The U.S. soybean outlook is for slightly lower production, reduced crush, andhigher ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 3.55 billionbushels, down less than 1 million on fractionally lower yields and unchangedharvested area. Soybean crush is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.11billion on lower-than expected early-season crush and reduced soybean mealexport prospects. With reduced crush, soybean ending stocks are projectedat 475 million bushels, up 15 million.
The U.S.season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $9.00 per bushel,unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price forecast is alsounchanged at $325.00 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at$0.31 per pound, up $0.01 from last month on sharply higher reported pricesthrough October.
U.S. Soybeansand Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure)
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end ofreport.
1/ Marketingyear beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybeanmeal.
2/ Prices:soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; oil,simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48percent protein, Decatur.
3/ Reflects onlybiodiesel made from methyl ester as reported by the U.S. Energy InformationAdministration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 2,085 millionbushels for 2018/19 and 2,105 million bushels for 2019/20.
World SoybeanSupply and Us
1/ Data based onlocal marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to anOctober-September year.
2/ World importsand exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and totime lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supplymay not equal world use.
3/ Argentina,Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
4/ China, EuropeanUnion, Japan, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia,Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand). Totals may not add due to rounding.
World SoybeanMeal Supply and Use
1/ Data based onlocal marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to anOctober-September year.
2/ World importsand exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and totime lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supplymay not equal world use.
3/ Argentina,Brazil, and India.
4/ EuropeanUnion, Southeast Asia, and Japan.
5/ Indonesia,Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. Totals may not add due torounding.
World SoybeanOil Supply and Use
1/ Data based onlocal marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to anOctober-September year.
2/ World importsand exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and totime lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supplymay not equal world use.
3/ Argentina,Brazil and European Union.
4/ China, India,and North Africa.
5/ Algeria,Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Totals may not add due to rounding.
Reliability ofNovember Projections
Note: Tables onpages 35-37 present a record of the November projection and the final Estimate.Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean squareerror" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast willnot be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will notexceed 2 percent. The average difference between the November projection andthe final estimate is 5.5 million tons, ranging from 0.1 million to 18.1million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 28 times andabove 10 time
1/ Marketingyears 1981/82 through 2018/19 for grains, soybeans and cotton. Final forgrains, soybeans and cotton is defined as the first November estimate followingthe marketing year for 1981/82 through 2017/18, and for 2018/19 the lastmonth’s estimate.
2/ Includescorn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain.
continue
1/ See pages 35and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton.Marketing years 1981/82 through 2018/19 for grains, soybeans, and cotton. Finalfor grains, soybeans, and cotton is defined as the first November estimatefollowing the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2017/18, and for 2018/19 thelast month’s estimate. Calendar years 1982 through 2018 for meats, eggs, andmilk. Final for animal products is defined as the latest annual productionestimate published by NASS for 1982-2018.
[Date:2019-11-08]
联系客服
