对主义的话题往往是很难一两句话说清楚的。针对卡斯特罗的死，两个角度看比较客观，一方面是作为革命者打破旧制度的热情，塑造人民政权的进取心。另一方面则是运营和管理一个政权的能力。卡斯特罗的一生是英雄主义的，但国家需要实用主义。对于我也也是一样，伟大领袖是否一定能带来商业成功?理想主义还是现实主义?值得思考。
来源：海外博士学者圈
在1959年，卡斯特罗没收了价值90亿美金的资产。如果按照1959年到2014年美国公司经历的11.4%的年增长率计算，这些资产现在价值1.89万亿美金，是古巴GDP的几倍！
这是经济自由度排名，古巴世界排名177位，第178名是朝鲜。1959年卡斯特罗不知道计划经济会让经济停滞情有可原，可1989年欧东国家经济崩盘他是很清楚了。为什么还不能为了老百姓的利益去真心改革？
以下是哈佛教授Jorge I. Dominguez 2015年发表在哈佛商业评论的文章
Jorge I. Dominguez is the Antonio Madero Professor for the Study of Mexico at Harvard University. He is the lead editor of a special issue on the Cuban economy for the journal Cuban Studies (2016)
在2008年世界经济危机后，古巴曾经最大的援助国俄罗斯和委内瑞拉都受到打击后，古巴的经济就没恢复过。虽然多半声称年增长率2%，但古巴的统计数据一向不可靠。真实情况更可能接近于零。
古巴的人口差不多一千一百万，但正在萎缩和迅速老龄化。早在1978年，古巴的人口出生率已经跌落到了正常更替水平以下。这对提升生产效率和经济增长可不是什么好事。预计2030年古巴人口超过60岁的高达30%！
但现实也并非都如此暗淡。古巴的人均寿命接近于北美和西欧，那意味着你可以得到较好的教育、基本的有质量的医疗。也许你不能每天饮食都很丰盛，但起码的营养都有保障。体育运动方面也还可以，对人们的基本福利保障方面，古巴做的还行。
如果单从教育和健康方面看，古巴无疑是人力资本投资方面的冠军。但过去五十年，这项投资的经济回报率却极低！如果你投资人力资本，不管是在公司层面还是国家层面，如果有争取的激励措施，或早或晚都有回报。也就是说，你要有好的制度安排，让这些经受较好培训和教育的劳动力能够发挥他们的作用。这正是古巴所欠缺的！
你在其他发展中国家找不到这么高素质的廉价劳动力了。也许你能在新加坡找到高质量的劳动力，但他们太贵了。
这个国家的基础设施很差。每一百个人中只有7台电脑，这在美洲是最低的。上网也很贵，古巴月收入的中位数不到20美元，但上网费每个月要8美元。
那古巴怎么赚钱呢？他们现在主要靠向委内瑞拉和巴西等国输出内科医生、护士和医疗技术人才。制糖业早已不是古巴的支柱产业，旅游业才是。
对古巴的生物技术我们略知一二。他们的应用科学似乎是一流的，但古巴生物技术的商业化却很差。他们知道怎么制造新产品，但不知道怎么打开市场。这个问题是可以解决的，但他们还没着手去做，以后如果跟欧洲、北美的制药企业合作，还是很有前途的。
古巴向美国公司投资打开大门了吗？不。批准美国企业投资的审批权在于OFCA(Office of Foreign Assets control )
美国和古巴之间的旅行也并非那么简单。美国捷蓝航空开通了从纽约到古巴的商务航班。但从1970年代末以来，从迈阿密到古巴的特许航班都得经过古巴当局核准，尤其对文化、教育和宗教团体。
古巴有私营部门，就是所谓的“非国有部门”。包括混合制企业（即外国企业和国企）和自雇部门self-employment sector. 在总统一千一百万人口中，有超过50万分自雇执照，根据总统保罗。考斯特罗2015年的报告。每个执照平均可合法雇佣4个人，超过了不行。因为根据古巴法律，如果达到五个或者以上，你的税会更重。古巴的税收系统很原始，没有个人税也没公司税。税收是根据你雇佣的人数来的。这种税收体制扼杀了经济和就业的增长。
古巴政府有一项根据名称授权的职业清单，名单以外的职业你都不能干，或者只能留给国企。授权的职业包括管道工人和电工，这些是技术工人。但名单很少包括大学生，这就是：如果你上了大学，你只能去为国家工作。
比如说，你去哈瓦那大学读了医学院。医疗是国有部门，而非私营活动。那你想赚更多钱怎么办？你发现最好的方法是，当你在医学院的时候多学一些英语。这样你毕业不干内科医生，而是去旅游酒店做服务生，这样你可以挣到更多！因为你会用英文交流显然是更能来钱的资本。
这对个人和社会来说都是悲剧。人们获得什么技能的激励完全颠倒了！你会发现很多受过大学教育的人在私营部门工作，但都做的并非他们的专长。也有一些例外，比如你做家教，在私营部门教外语。但你不能做教室里的老师，不能教数学。
因此私营部门微不足道。也只有很少的外国投资。尽管2014年的外国投资法批准了全资的外国企业，但目前为止主要还是跟国有企业的混合企业。
古巴的贸易揭示了它的国际伙伴。在2013年，对中国出口3.43亿美元，进口15亿美元。对巴西出口8100万美金，进口6.14亿美金。对委内瑞拉出口23亿美金，进口48亿美金。
但中国在某方面很重要。中国政府强力支持古巴改革，获得更快更广的市场开放。不过你可能想错了，中国只是试图说服古巴政府模仿自己的市场开放模式。
古巴的政治领导人确实不容忽视。他们在管理政治方面令人印象深刻。他们依然握有重权。谁能料到东欧的共产主义政体都倒台了，古巴和东亚的四个政体却能生存下来？
古巴的劳动力教育质量真的很好，也很便宜，也有证据表明有企业家潜能。如果政治领导人能努力取消投资限制、创造正确的激励、改革税法，这个国家真的可以走向繁荣。但指望一个隔绝世界太久的岛国政府作出改变还有太多变数。
以下资料摘在美国顶级智库Brookings institute（2015年报告）
古巴经济高度依赖于委内瑞拉的廉价石油补助，否则工业和电力都会瘫痪。普金最近也减免了古巴320亿美金的巨额外债，这是苏联时代留下来的。
1. CUBA RECEIVES ALMOST 100,000 BARRELS OF OIL A DAY FROM VENEZUELA.
The easing of diplomatic hostilities between the United States and Cuba may work to lessen Cuban dependence on the Venezuelan regime, Ted Piccone notes. Russian President Vladimir Putin also recently wrote off $32 billion, 90 percent of the debt Cuba owed dating back to the Soviet era.
官方说古巴人均GDP有5539美金，但老百姓实际上拿到手的月薪不到20美元
2. THE AGGREGATED GROSS NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITA OF CUBA IS OFFICIALLY $5,539, BUT THE TAKE HOME SALARY FOR MOST CUBANS IS AROUND $20 A MONTH.
While there is little publicly available data regarding individual incomes, Richard Feinberg concludes, using a variety of indicators, that 40 percent of the Cuban labor force falls within a broadly defined middle class, though consumption remains depressed due to low government wages.
不到5%的人可以上网
3. LESS THAN FIVE PERCENT OF CUBANS HAVE ACCESS TO THE INTERNET.
While demand is increasing for American cultural and telecommunications products, companies like Netflix and Google are working on long-term plans to find their way into the country’s economy. The first step in this process came in early February, according to Darrell West, when Netflix announced it would begin streaming in the island nation.
政府规定老百姓只可以自由选择201种职业
这限制了对外的经济联系，比如美国进口者只能跟独立的古巴企业主交易，而古巴政府让你独立的领域却这么少！
4. THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT AUTHORIZES ONLY 201 DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF ACTIVITIES FOR SELF-EMPLOYMENT.
This creates a problem in forging economic ties, Ted Piccone writes, since “U.S. importers can only engage in transactions with independent Cuban entrepreneurs” while Cuba fails to expand the list, excluding “huge swaths of Cuba’s human capital” from trade with the U.S.
大约20%的古巴人偷渡或移民到了美国
5. MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS OF THE 2 MILLION CUBANS AND CUBAN-AMERICANS IN THE UNITED STATES LIVE IN FLORIDA; 18 PERCENT OF MIAMI RESIDENTS IDENTIFY AS CUBAN.
Audrey Singer explains how these demographic distributions play a key role in normalizing relations with Cuba. Currently, a visa lottery system allows 20,000 Cubans to emigrate every year to the United States, while others try to make the trek by sea—the U.S. Coast Guard stopped 500 such potential immigrants in December 2014 alone. Thousands more cross the border where they can claim asylum and get expedited green card privileges.
上网网速只有1M每秒
6. NEW CUBAN HOTSPOTS CAN PROCESS 1 MEGABIT PER SECOND, FAR BELOW THE AVERAGE U.S. SPEED.
Darrell West examines the growth of Internet access in Cuba, noting that improved relations with the U.S. could relax restrictions on better IT equipment.
以下资料摘自福布斯最新文章
古巴经济被中南美洲国家甩在后面
To give an idea of how bad that was we should use the Angus Maddison numbers.
And in 1959, when Castro took power, GDP per capita for Cuba was some $2,067 a year. About two thirds of Latin America in general and about the same as Ecuador (1,975), Jamaica (2,541), Panama (2,322) and two thirds of Puerto Rico (3,239). Despite that playground of rich Americans thing it was, by the standards of the time, doing reasonably well.
By 1999, 40 years later, Cuba had advanced hardly at all, to $2,307, while Ecuador had, relatively, jumped to 3,809, Jamaica to 3,670, Panama to 5,618 and Puerto Rico to 13,738. GDP isn’t everything of course but it’s still hugely important. For it’s the basic measure of what it is possible that people, on average, can consume. And we don’t tend to think that Ecuador, Jamaica, Panama and Puerto Rico were particularly well run in the latter decades of the 20 th century but at least they didn’t have a government actively conspiring to keep them impoverished like Cuba did.
1959年卡斯特罗不知道计划经济会让经济停滞情有可原，可1989年欧东国家经济崩盘他是很清楚了。为什么还不能为了老百姓的利益去真心改革？
It is possible, if you really want to stretch matters, to say that this was not known in 1959. But all knew it by 1989, and that’s where the Cuban system really deserves excoriation. And thus so does Fidel Castro, who imposed said system. In 1991 Albania was poorer than Cuba (1,836 as against 2,590) but that simple switch to a market economic system, however chaotic, near tripled the standard of living in only 20 years (5,375 in 2010).
And do note that Puerto Rico result. That Caribbean island remained under that American domination, that cruel capitalism and the chaos of markets. It was never enriched by the scientific planning of socialism. And living standards soared by a factor of 4 while those in Cuba stagnated for 5 decades. And the Cuban system justified itself by freeing Cuba from such American hegemony.
旅游业早已成为古巴经济支柱，这导致老百姓更愿意使用美元结算。能在旅游行业工作领取美元发的工资和小费，成为古巴最让人羡慕的职业。内科医生宁可去旅游酒店做服务生或做的哥。
The rapid growth of tourism has had widespread social and economic repercussions. This led to speculation of the emergence of a two-tier economy and the fostering of a state of tourist apartheid. This situation was exacerbated by the influx of dollars during the 1990s, potentially creating a dual economy based on the dollar (the currency of tourists) on the one hand and the peso on the other. Scarce imported goods - and even some of local manufacture, such as rum and coffee- could be had at dollar-only stores, but were hard to find or unavailable at peso prices. As a result, Cubans who earned only in the peso economy, outside the tourist sector, were at a disadvantage. Those with dollar incomes based upon the service industry began to live more comfortably. This widened the gulf between Cubans' material standards of living, in conflict with the Cuban Government's long term socialist policies.
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