高速铁路是否会对经济有革命性的影响?
Canhigh-speed rail have a transformative e?ect on the economy?
本文是《Transport Policy》2017年已经接收的论文,作者是英国University of Kent的Roger Vickerman。高速铁路由于其快速的通行能力将城市和区域紧密的联系在一起,因此被认为会提高地区的增长和生产率进步;当然也有人认为高铁的发展仅会对一部分城市有利,而对有的城市甚至会有反方向的作用。本文从理论和案例分析两方面验证高速铁路对经济是否有重要的影响。
当前的研究工作从理论和实证方面都验证了交通对企业行为、劳动力市场的影响。如新经济地理学认为在不完全竞争的市场中,运输成本会影响企业的区位选择和集聚情况,进一步的会影响企业生产率和潜在收益(Venables,2007),这个方面的研究也获得了实证的支持(Graham,2007)。然而这类研究仍然存在较多问题,例如内生性问题、宏观与微观层面的估计以及区域间溢出问题等等,相对较新的研究发现了不同的结论,如Grahamet al.(2010)发现通行能力的改善只对本地有影响。交通运输的作用之一在于弥补不同区位间的空间差异,因此相对便宜的运输成本是相对较贵的土地成本的替代,从这个角度来看,交通运输可以被认为是增长的一个引擎。从新经济地理学理论来看,运输成本的下降会扩大市场范围,集聚程度高的地区又可以反过来降低运输成本,因此对于中心区域的企业更有力。然而由于集聚程度过高也会出现拥堵、污染等现象,使得运输也可能会促进区域再平衡发展。
图1 不同时期Kent郡和周边地区的失业率
本文以英国第一条高速铁路(HS1)为例进行案例分析,该线路在开通第一年后乘客数量就高达700万人次,接下来的三年里涨到1000万人次,吸引了很多乘客从传统铁路改乘高铁。然而从失业率(图1)来看,高铁的开通并未使得处于高铁上的Kent郡的失业率低于周边地区(英国西南区域,GOSE区域)。当然,这种影响是具有区域异质性的,在受高铁影响的Kent郡,失业率存在区域差异(图2)。
图2 Kent地区的失业率
作者还对高铁开通对Kent郡的总增加值(Gross Value Added)的影响进行了分析(图3),发现对不同地区也同样存在差异,例如增加最快的Dartford 和Ashford地区,由于具有良好的通行能力(有车站)而增长最为迅速,也验证了作者的观点,即可达性是交通运输影响经济的关键。
图3 历年Kent郡各地区总增加值
参考文献:
Vickerman, R., Transport Policy (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.03.008
Abstract:
High-speed rail is frequently claimed to have a transformative effect on the economy. By bringing cities and regions closer together it is argued that economies can benefit from lower generalised costs of transport leading to enhanced growth and productivity. A counter argument is that such effects are largely redistributive with some regions benefiting and others suffering depending on their ability to take advantage of new opportunities. However, some argue further than this and claim that such step changes in transport provision can lead to major changes in economic structure that can transform regions’ absolute as well as relative position and thus redress the existence of regional disparities.
In this paper, we address the question as to whether there is a clear and robust economic theory of the transformational impact of high-speed rail and if there is any consistent evidence to support it? The paper uses evidence from the North-west European High-Speed Rail network and a more detailed study of the UK's first high-speed line, HS1. This is followed by a discussion of the various claims and counter-claims for the impact of the proposed HS2 that will link London with Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester. On the basis of this some of the implications for the appraisal of such projects are considered. The main conclusion from the paper is that transport infrastructure by itself is not likely to be transformative, but coupled with other policy interventions it can contribute to such an effect.
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