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独家编译:中国通货膨胀预计随着食品价格的下跌而上涨

China's consumer price index (CPI) in May, a main gauge of inflation, is expected to pick up from April, with the food price decline likely to narrow.

中国5月消费者物价指数(CPI)是通货膨胀的主要指标,预计将从4月份开始回升,食品价格下滑可能会缩小。

中国的通货膨胀预计随着食品价格的下跌而上涨

The official CPI in May, scheduled to be released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on 9 June, is forecast to grow 1.5 per cent year on year, according to Lian Ping, chief economist with the Bank of Communications.

交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,预计5月9日国家统计局(NBS)6月9日公布的官方消费者价格指数将同比增长1.5%。

NBS data showed that the CPI rose 1.2 per cent year on year in April, against 0.9 in March, as higher prices for non-food commodities outweighed an ongoing decline in food prices.

国家统计局数据显示,4月份CPI同比上涨1.2%,3月份则上涨0.9,因为非食品商品价格上涨超过食品价格持续下滑。

The CPI increased 1.4 per cent in the first four months of the year. The government aims to keep consumer inflation at around 3 per cent this year.

消费物价指数在今年首四个月上升1.4%。 政府的目标是将消费者通货膨胀率保持在今年3%左右。

Lian forecast that the food prices decline would narrow in May, which will push up May's CPI as food prices account for nearly one-third of the prices used.

联汇预测五月食品价格下跌将会缩小,这将推高五月份的消费物价指数,因为食品价格已经占到近三分之一的价格。

Many of China's hundreds of millions of farmers are feeling the squeeze of lower prices for a variety of produce, ranging from vegetables through eggs to pork, since the start of the year.

自今年年初以来,中国许多农民纷纷感受到蔬菜,鸡蛋,猪肉等各种农产品价格下跌的压力。

Data from the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) showed that prices of vegetables, eggs and pork had been declining for the first three weeks of May affected by supply and demand imbalance.

商务部的数据显示,受供需不平衡影响的五月份前三周,蔬菜,鸡蛋,猪肉的价格一直在下降。

From 15 May to 21 May in particular, the average prices of 30 different vegetables dropped 5.2 per cent from the previous week, while egg and pork prices shed 2.3 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively.

特别是5月15日至5月21日,30种不同蔬菜的平均价格比上周下降了5.2%,而鸡蛋和猪肉价格分别下跌了2.3%和1.2%。

Pork and egg prices had been dragged down as a result of ample supply and short demand. The high price of eggs and pork in previous years caused farmers to raise pigs and chickens, leading to oversupply.

猪肉和鸡蛋价格因供应充足和需求短缺而被拖累。 过去几年鸡蛋和猪肉价格居高不下,导致农民大量养猪、养鸡,进而又导致供过于求。

'Pork prices will recover gradually as the tourism and festive season in the second half of the year will increase demand and push up prices,' said Tang Ke, an official from the Ministry of Agriculture.

农业部官员唐克说:“猪肉价格将逐步回升,因为下半年旅游旺季将增加需求,推高价格。

In addition, higher prices for non-food commodities prompted by stable domestic demand will also result in a pick-up in May CPI, according to UBS economist Wang Tao, who forecast a May CPI of 1.7 per cent.

此外,由瑞银经济学家王涛估计,5月份CPI指数为1.7%,而5月CPI升幅引发的非食品商品价格上涨也将导致5月份CPI回升。

'Overall, annual CPI growth this year will be well below the official target of around 3 per cent with no pressure of inflation or deflation,' said Lian Ping.

连平说:“总体而言,今年CPI年均增长将远远低于3%左右的官方目标,没有通货膨胀或通缩压力。

China International Capital Corporation echoed the forecast in a report, noting that the CPI might stay muted in the near term, as agricultural supply side reform might continue to depress food prices and the headline CPI until the fourth quarter, which lowered the probability of aggressive monetary tightening.

中国国际金融公司在一份报告中回应了预测,指出CPI可能会在短期内保持低迷,因为农业供给方面的改革可能继续压低食品价格和CPI直到第四季度,这降低了进取货币的可能性收紧。

Indeed, taming inflation leaves the central bank leeway to stay composed in raising interest rates. China's monetary policy in 2017 is set to be 'prudent and neutral' to keep appropriate liquidity levels and avoid large injections.

事实上,通货膨胀使中央银行的利润维持在提高利率的作用。 2017年中国的货币政策将保持“审慎和中立”,以保持适当的流动性水平,避免大量注入。

Deng Haiqing, chief economist with JZ Securities, said mild CPI growth would give policy makers more scope to contain debt and financial risk.

JZ证券首席经济学家邓海青表示,温和的CPI增长将为决策者提供更多遏制债务和财务风险的空间。

With the economy doing reasonably well, policy has shifted to deleveraging and risk control, but Deng warned that over-tightening could destabilize growth.

随着经济运行状况良好,政策转向了去杠杆化和风险控制,但邓警告说,过度紧缩可能会破坏经济增长。

As part of the effort, China has shifted away from a relatively loose monetary policy that helped lift growth over the past years, gradually guided interbank lending rates higher and tightening supervision on non-performing assets, shadow banking and local government financing.

作为努力的一部分,中国已经从相对宽松的货币政策转向了过去几年有所放缓的增长态势,逐步引导银行同业拆借利率上调,严格监管不良资产,影子银行和地方政府融资。

Ren Zeping, chief economist at Founder Securities, said that while the regulatory squeeze would continue in the short term, the government must balance the frequency and intensity of policies to deleverage, manage liquidity and stabilize growth.

创始人证券首席经济学家任泽平表示,短期内监管压力将持续下去,政府必须平衡政策的频率和强度,减少流动性,稳定增长。

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