The Long-Term Patternof the Shanghai Market
上证综指的长期格局
China’s stock market has a characteristic that sets itapart from all other major stock markets of theworld. Being aware of this opens a window to amajor profit opportunities.
中国的股票市场有其独特性，使其与世界上其他主要股票市场迥异。意识到这一点，就为我们打开了一个巨大的盈利机会之窗。
All markets have price cycles, with alternating upwavesand downwaves. In China, those waves arecompressed into relatively short time windows, and followed by longperiods of low volatility and narrow price ranges.
所有市场都有价格周期，交替波动和下行。在中国，这些波动被压缩成相对较短的时间窗口，之后是长期的低波动率和窄幅价格区间。
Every bar on this chart of Shanghai Composite Indexrepresents one month of trading from 2004 to2017. You can clearly see how relatively briefbut very intense bull markets (green bars) collapse into also briefbut vicious bear markets (red bars), followed by much longer sleepyflat periods.
上图是上证综指从2004年到2017年的月线图。你可以清楚地看到，相对短暂而非常激烈的牛市(绿条)如何陷入了同样短暂但却残酷的熊市(红条)，随后是长期的沉寂期。
The price cycles in the Shanghai market are unique becauseof the extreme sharpness of bull and bear markets and theuncommonly long flat periods between them.
上证综指的价格周期是独一无二的，就因为它的急涨急跌的牛市和熊市，以及牛熊之间那罕见的长期横盘整理期。
What causes this pattern? I think it isdue to a huge number of new traders rushing into a rising stockmarket, contributing to its rise, getting burned after a reversal,running in a panic, and then staying away for years.
是什么导致了这种模式？我想这是由于大量的新股民涌入上涨的市场，再次激化了股市的上涨，但却在股市逆转后遍体鳞伤，股价运行进入了恐慌区，所以之后形成了好几年下跌。
I remember flying to a conference in Asia at the top ofthe 2007 bull market and reading in the newspaper that there was ashortage of cleaning women in Shanghai hotels because they wereleaving their jobs to become stock traders. Whenmasses of unsophisticated traders pour into the market, its risebecomes almost vertical. Its eventual reversal isfollowed by just as sharp of a decline. The longpause that follows bear markets reflects how long it takes for anew generation of gamblers to appear on the scene.
我记得曾在2007年的牛市巅峰时飞往亚洲参加一个会议，那时在报纸上读到上海的酒店急缺清洁女工，因为她们都要离职去做股民。当大量的不成熟的股民涌入市场时，股市几乎是垂直上涨，最终导致市场逆转急剧下跌。熊市之后的长期停歇反映出新一代投机者在这一场景中出现了多长时间。
How can a sophisticated trader profit from thispattern? We have technical tools that show uswhen the market transitions from flat and sleepy to directional,giving a major buy signal. Other tools helpidentify reversals of uptrends in order to profit from sellingshort on the way down. I look forward to flyingto China in 2018 and sharing those tools with conferenceattendees. We need to be ready to take advantageof the next bull market that will emerge from the current sleepyperiod.
一个老练的交易者该怎么从这种模式中获利呢？我们是有技术工具的，它可以向我们展示，市场何时从平和的昏昏欲睡期过渡到选择方向，并提供了重要的买入信号。其他工具有助于识别上升趋势的逆转，以便在下跌的过程中获利。我期待着在2018年飞往中国，并与参会者分享这些工具。我们需要准备好利用下一个牛市的机会，它将从当前的沉寂期中浮现。
Dr Alexander Elder 亚历山大·埃尔德博士
Vermont,USA 美国佛蒙特州
Dr. Elder is a professional trader and teacher oftraders. He is the author of The New Tradingfor a Living and other books, considered modern classics amongtraders and translated into 16 languages, includingChinese. He will speak at the BOAO conference inJune 2018.
埃尔德博士是一位专业的交易者，同时是交易者们的导师。他著有《以交易为生》以及其他书籍，被交易者称为近代经典，并被翻译成16种语言，包括中文版。他将在2018年6月在博鳌金融论坛上进行演讲。
博金融论坛鳌 :http://www.boguforum.com
亚历山大·埃尔德（Alexander Elder）小档案
亚历山大·埃尔德（Alexander Elder），医学博士，现居住在纽约，是一名专业交易者，著有《以交易为生》（Trading for a Living）和《以交易为生学习指南》（Study Guide for Trading for a Living）等书。这些书于1993年首次出版，被交易者公认为当代交易的经典之作，在国际上十分畅销，他的著作被翻译成中文、荷兰文、法文、德文、希腊文、日文、韩文、波兰文和俄文。他还著有《从卢布到美元》（Rubles to Dollars）一书，该书介绍了俄罗斯转轨的情况。
埃尔德博士出生于列宁格勒，成长于爱沙尼亚，16岁进入医学院。23岁的他在做随船医生时，从一艘航行在非洲的苏联船只上跳下，并向美国申请政治避难。其后在纽约成为一名精神病医生，同时在哥伦比亚大学教书。做精神病医生的经验让他对交易心理学有着独特的洞察力。埃尔德博士的著作、文章以及交易软件评论让他成为当代交易领域的领军人物。
埃尔德博士在各个研讨会上深受欢迎，他也是交易者训练营（一门为期一周的交易者课程）的创始人。
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