Identify Study of Earthquake Prediction & Volcano Prediction

Lijun Chen

The global earthquake focal depth data from 1963 to 2010 shows, the focal depth of more than 630 km is only 6 places such as Chile, Okhotsk Sea, Philippines, Indonesia, Solomon and Tonga. Focal depth is between 550 km to 630 km only 4 places such as Japan sea, Marianas trench, Jilin in China and west exit of the Mediterranean. Maximum focal depth is between 250 km to 380 km only 7 places such as Guatemala, Haiti, Bering sea, Taiwan and Ryukyu，Hindu kush, Mediterranean and South Sandwich Trench. Also, the maximum focal depth is between 180 km to 250 km in Burma. All add up to 18 centres or strips of deep source seismic activity. The upper seismic activity of these centres just like a tree or a fanlike arrangement, and stretches open along the island arcs or trench nearby the surface. The author has defined the special point as Seismic Cone (see http://blog.sina.com.cn/seisman), top 10 may be defined as Super Seismic Cones.

According to the Seismo-Geothermics (Chen Lijun, 2000, Seismology and Geology), the earthquake at bottom of seismic mantle plume just like an "engine", constitute the active layer of certain depth mantle by way of rapid migration of heat energy or critical boiling of mantle material. Mid-depth source earthquake release does not dissipate, can only transfer to upper mantle layer, i. e energy-storage layer. Energy storage layer will be stored energy or transfer upward step by step with a gradual release. Arrived near-surface, the earth's crust dissipative layer will be spread, and the releases of stored bottom energy will be accrued by way of volcanic eruption, or by way of rupture, dislocation or plastic deformation, etc, along with the existing fragile generated structures, and will be dissipated exhaustedly with the energy form change of heat energy into mainly mechanical energy.

A simple boiled water testing can be roughly simulated the working mechanism of a seismic cone. A beaker of water placed above the plane heat source. When the temperature is appropriate, the bubbles appear and burst immediately on the cup bottom. With increased water temperatures the bubbles rise and burst ceaselessly, the water surface is gradually deformation. When bubbles can rise close to the water surface, it is into "Xiangshui doesn't boil" stage, and then is boiled. Earthquake prediction and volcano prediction is looking for the timing of "Xiangshui doesn't boil".

Indonesia is an ideal place of earthquake prediction and volcano prediction research to its earthquake frequent and volcanic activity. Statistical of the relationship of crust earthquakes and volcanoes with mid-depth source earthquakes in Indonesia, found below phenomenon:

1) By the statistics of 70 volcanic eruptions of index VEI = 1 and above since 2000 in Indonesia, there were many earthquakes magnitude 5 and above almost every volcano eruption in or before 1 ~ 3 months(table limited, to see the blog of Seisman);

2) When appearing a series of deep source seismic activity magnitude 5 and above does to trigger the eruptions of one or more volcanoes (Example Table 1);

3) If deep earthquake magnitude 7 and above accrued it could trigger volcanic eruption and strong crust earthquake magnitude 8 and above (Table 2).

In the Seismo-Geothermic, volcano and mid-depth source earthquake are homologous. The volcano is heat release rushed to the surface, and the mid-depth source earthquake is heat transfer but does not reach the surface.

In this sense, the relationship study of volcano and mid-depth source earthquake may be able to find new ways of the volcano prediction and earthquake prediction.

Hereby thanks to page web http://www.ncedc.org/anss/  for ANSS earthquake catalogue, and to page web http://www.volcano.si.edu/  for GVP monthly volcanic Bulletin.

（The 2d draft, 2011.3.16）

See：http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-552558-423131.html

Table 1

Table 2

试论地震预测与火山预测的同一性

Seisman

全球地震震源深度1963～2010年的资料显示，震源深度大于630km的只有智利、鄂霍次克海、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、所罗门、汤加等6处；震源深度介于550～630km的只有日本海、马里亚纳海沟、中国吉林和地中海西端出海口等4处；最大震源深度介于250～380km的只有危地马拉、白令海、台湾及琉球、兴都库什、地中海和南桑维奇海沟等6处；缅甸的最大震源深度介于180～250km。以上共计17个中、深源地震活动中心或条带。这些中、深源地震中心上层的地震活动，多呈树状或扇状排列，近地表则沿着岛弧或海沟舒展开去。作者将这些特殊的点定义为地震地幔柱（见blog.sina.com.cn/seisman），前10个可定义为超级地震地幔柱。

按照地震地热说的解释（陈立军，2000，地震地质），地震地幔柱底部的地震相当于“热机”，构成地幔一定深度的能动层，以快速运移或者暴沸的方式爆发深源地震。深源地震所释放的能量无法耗散，只能转移给上面的中间低温层——储能层。储能层将能量或者加以存储，或者以渐进式的释放将能量逐层向上转移。到达近地表，地壳内的耗散层将底部能量加以扩散，或者以火山的形式喷发，或者沿着已有的脆弱构造产生破裂、错动以及塑性变形等，将热能转化为以机械能为主的能量形式耗散殆尽。

一个简易的开水试验可以大致模拟地震地幔柱的工作机理。烧杯注水，置于平面热源之上。当温度适当时，杯底出现气泡，随即破裂。随着水温升高，气泡不断地上升—破裂，水面渐渐变形。当气泡能够上升到近水面时进入“响水不开”阶段，随后即沸腾了。地震预测和火山预测就是要寻找“响水不开”的时机。

印度尼西亚地震频发，火山活跃，是研究地震预测和火山预测的理想之地。统计印度尼西亚的壳内强震、火山与中、深源地震的关系，发现如下现象：

1） 统计2000年以来70次火山喷发指数VEI＝1以上的火山喷发，几乎每一次火山喷发前1～3个月内都有5级以上的中、深源地震活动（表略,见seisman的博客）；

2） 当出现一系列5级以上的中、深源地震活动后，会引发一个或多个火山的喷发（例表1）；

3） 当发生7级以上的深源地震后，有可能引发火山喷发和壳内8级以上的强震活动（表2）。

在地震地热说范畴内，火山与中、深源地震是同源的。火山是冲出到地表的热能释放，中、深源地震则是未能到达地表的热能转移。从这个意义上来说，地震预测与火山预测具有同一性。

本文所采用的地震资料取自http://www.ncedc.org/ 网页的ANSS地震目录，火山资料取自http://www.volcano.si.edu/网页的GVP火山月报，谨此致谢。

（2011.2.25 初稿）