Israel and Palestine
以色列和巴勒斯坦
The new normal
新的常态
No matter what Israel’s prime minister says, the conflict with the Palestinians cannot simply be “managed”
不管以色列总理怎么说，巴以冲突都不可能被简单“掌控”
Jul 12th 2014 | From the print edition of The Economist
译者：wendy220
THE prime minister of Israel, Binyamin Netanyahu, has sought to make life normal. While the Middle East has gone up in flames, Israel’s economy has thrived. Cafés emptied a decade ago by Palestinian suicide-bombers are once again teeming with customers. Demonstrators in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv have protested not just about war and peace, but even more vociferously about the price of cottage cheese.
以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡（Binyamin Netanyahu）试图回归平静生活。在中东战火连天之际，以色列经济蓬勃发展。以色列咖啡馆十年前因巴勒斯坦自杀式袭击门可罗雀，现又顾客盈门了。耶路撒冷和特拉维夫的示威者抗议的内容不只是战争和平，他们对农家干酪高价的愤慨更为强烈。
This unreal normality is now under threat. After a two-year lull, rockets fired from Gaza have rained down on Israel. The Israel Defence Forces have struck hundreds of sites in Gaza. The army is ready to mobilise up to 40,000 reserves. The talk is of a ground offensive against Hamas, which governs Gaza (see article). Palestinians, 70 of whom have already been killed, are sliding towards a third uprising, or intifada.
这种不真实的生活常态正面临着威胁。两年的停火后，从加沙发射的火箭如雨般落在以色列。以色列国防军袭击了加沙的数百据点，军队正准备调动4万预备军，据说将对掌管加沙的哈马斯发动地面袭击（另见文）。70名巴克斯坦人被杀，巴勒斯坦正朝第三次暴动迈进。
Mr Netanyahu’s mistake—compounded by the actions of Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinians on the West Bank—is to think that their versions of normality can be sustained simply by managing the conflict. A stand-off is always liable to tip into violence. Lasting peace will come about only when the two sides reach a comprehensive settlement.
内塔尼亚胡的错误是单纯地认为只要控制冲突，以色列的常态就能够持续。约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦领导人马哈茂德·阿巴斯（Mahmoud Abbas）的举动使这一错误的影响更加恶化了。僵持局面总是容易演变成暴力冲突。只有巴以双方达成全面协议，才可能带来持久和平。
More than maintenance
不仅是保持
Today’s violence was triggered by the murder of three Israeli teenagers, snatched on their way back from study at ayeshiva in an Israeli settlement in the West Bank. Mr Netanyahu blamed Hamas—on evidence that remains unclear—leading to the arrest of hundreds of Palestinians, including some prisoners who had recently been released under an American-sponsored scheme designed to boost peace talks with Mr Abbas. In retaliation, and outraged at the murder of a young Palestinian, militants fired rockets into Israel. The IDF responded with lethal force. In a few short days, the original offence was superseded by the logic of escalating action and reaction.
居住于约旦河西岸以色列定居点的三名少年在放学回家途中被绑架谋杀，引发了现在的冲突。内塔尼亚胡将此事归咎于哈马斯——尚无确凿证据——导致几百名巴勒斯坦人被捕，其中包括近期被释放的巴勒斯坦囚犯。这些囚犯是在美国牵线的巴以和谈计划下出狱的。上述种种加之一名年轻的巴勒斯坦人被谋杀一事令巴勒斯坦震怒，好战分子发动了报复袭击，向以色列发射导弹。以色列国防军回以致命袭击。短短几天之内，以牙还牙的逻辑取代了最初的不悦，局势不断恶化。
Such fragility is a symptom of the influence of extremists on both sides. Some on the Israeli right see a chance to smash Hamas, which has been weakened in Gaza, both by its own incompetence and by Egypt’s new government closing the tunnels leading from Sinai into Gaza. But Israeli force is more likely to revive Hamas than break it. The Islamists would once again rally support as the main resistance to the hated occupiers, whilst leaving Mr Abbas looking more like the stooge.
局势的脆弱说明了双方极端分子的影响力之大。部分以色列右派看到了痛击哈马斯的机会——由于其自身的能力不足以及埃及政府关闭西奈加沙之间地下隧道一事，哈马斯在加沙的实力已减弱。但是以色列军队更可能振兴哈马斯而非重伤它，作为对抗可恶的占领者的主要势力，哈马斯会再一次获得普遍支持，使阿巴斯看上去更像走狗。
Centrist Israelis would settle for periodic missions designed to tamp down Hamas—“mowing the lawn” they call it. The idea is that the occasional brutal show of force can buy a few more years of normality. Yet doing so is becoming harder. Even if Hamas’s rockets remain inaccurate and are rarely lethal, the latest have reached parts of northern Israel 125 kilometres (80 miles) from Gaza. People in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem will, understandably, refuse to live under constant threat. Israel could of course smite its enemies with ever-bloodier fervour. But to the watching world, its overwhelming use of force, which always leaves many more Palestinians than Israelis dead, has often looked excessive—and its international standing, which moderate Israelis care about, tumbles further.
以色列中间派会安于针对哈马斯的周期性袭击（他们称之为“除草”），认为偶尔的武力展示可以使平静的常态多维持几年。然而这样做正在变得越来越困难。即使哈马斯的导弹仍然错过目标、很少致命，最近一次袭击已经深入了以色列北部地区，距加沙125千米（80英里）。可想而知，特拉维夫和耶路撒冷居民会拒绝生活在持续的威胁之下。当然，以色列可以进行更血腥的袭击遏制敌人。但对于观战的世界各国来说，死于以色列武力之下的巴勒斯坦人远多于死亡的以色列人，以色列的暴力袭击常常显得过度了。温和的以色列人关心的以色列国际形象也愈加恶化了。
In any case, the status quo on the Palestinian side looks untenable. Mr Abbas is tired and ineffectual. Under him, normality for the West Bank’s Palestinians has come to mean accepting Israeli occupation while Israeli settlers gobble up ever more territory. Without even the prospect of statehood, Palestinians are impatient.
无论如何，巴勒斯坦方面的现状看似不堪一击。在疲惫无能的阿巴斯领导下，西岸巴勒斯坦人的常态就意味着接受以色列无止尽的侵占土地。国家独立的希望渺茫，巴勒斯坦人民已失去耐心。
For all these reasons, the failure of Mr Netanyahu to make peace a priority is dangerous. He did not make the most of the recent plan put forward by John Kerry, America’s secretary of state. Both he and Mr Abbas recklessly pursued short-term advantage during the talks, leaving their countries vulnerable to those who argue that, with the hopes of peace exhausted, conflict is all that remains. That is wrong. Two states, one for Israelis and one for Palestinians, remains by far the greatest hope for peace. The parameters of an agreement are well-rehearsed. What is lacking is the conviction among reasonable people that such a settlement is needed now. Without that belief, Israel’s normality will always have an air of unreality.
基于这种种理由，内塔尼亚胡不把和平视为当务之急是很危险的。他没有充分利用美国国务卿克里最近提出的计划。在和谈期间，他和阿巴斯都冲动地追求短期利益，任由国家毁于恶意分子手中。这些人声称和平希望渺茫，仅剩的只有冲突。这是错误的。建立两个国家——一个是以色列人的，一个是巴勒斯坦人的——至今仍然是和平的最大希望。协议的框架已经构建好了，缺少的是理性的人们秉持的信念，即现在需要达成协议的信念。缺少这种信念的话，以色列的常态总会透着一丝不真实。
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