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A worry list
忧虑清单
本文英文部分选自经济学人Finance and economics版块
A worry list
忧虑清单
The risks vary from volatility to junk bunds
风险——从波动性到垃圾债券
Bull markets always climb a wall of worry, or so the saying goes. For much of 2017, the main concerns were political and the markets seemed to surmount them as easily as a robot dog opens doors (the latest internet sensation).
俗话说：牛市都是翻越忧虑之墙而来。2017年大部分时间里，主要担忧来自政策变动，但市场似乎像“机器狗开门”一般轻而易举地克服了（近期网络上引起轰动的视频）。
波士顿最新研发的机器狗：会开门了。2013 年，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 收购了波士顿动力以及其他几家小型机器人公司。经过 4 年孵化后，Alphabet 于2017年 6 月将其卖给了软银，用于削减成本）
But February has shown that the market is still vulnerable. The immediate trigger seems to have been the fear that inflationary pressures would cause bond yields to rise and central banks to push up interest rates; this week’s surprisingly high American inflation numbers will only add to the worries. In a narrow sense, that makes bonds look cheaper, compared with equities. In a broader sense, it increases the discount rates investors apply to future profits, lowering the present value of shares. (A caveat is needed: if higher rates reflect stronger growth, the estimates of future profits should rise, offsetting the discount-rate effect.)
但是，二月的市场表现依然很脆弱。直接原因可能来自通胀压力导致债券收益率上升，以及央行加息带来的隐忧；美国本周出乎意料之高通胀数据只会进一步加深担忧。从狭义上来讲，与股票相比，这将使债券看起来更廉价。从广义上来讲，这增加了未来投资收益贴现率，从而降低了股票的现值。（值得注意的是：如果高贴现率反映了强增长，那么预计未来收益将会上升，抵销贴现率对现值的影响。）
Discount rate: the rate of interest set by the Federal Reserve that member banks are charged when they borrow money through the Federal Reserve System. 贴现率
The immediate effect has been to create uncertainty for investors about the direction of central bank policy, after many years in which it could reliably be assumed that rates would stay low. This translates into a more volatile market, as illustrated by the sharp jump in the Vix, or volatility index, in early February.
利率多年维持于较低水平，其直接影响是给投资者带来了央行政策方向的不确定性。这演变出一个更加反复无常的市场，正如二月初VIX（波动率指数）的暴涨。
The danger is that many investors seem to have treated volatility as an asset class, and have organised their portfolios accordingly. Eric Lonergan of M&G, a fund-management group, warned in a blog that “endogenous instability is rising, and volatility is at the core. Volatility has virus-like properties. It started as the domain of a small specialist group of quants. And it has spread to infect every-one.” Too many people use volatility as a measure of risk, but the real risk is the permanent loss of capital, he points out. A focus on short-term volatility may lead to herd behaviour on the part of investors, creating the risk of a sudden sell-off.
许多投资者似乎将波动性视作一种资产类别并纳入投资组合，这是非常危险的。M&G资产管理公司基金经理Eric Lonergan在一篇博文中警告称：“内在不稳定性正在不断攀升，波动性是主要驱动因素。波动性有着类似病毒的特性。它起于一小群量化投资分析师，随后传播至每一个人。”他还指出：太多人将波动性作为衡量风险的一种方法，但真正的风险是丧失全部本金。对短期波动性的关注会导致部分投资者的群体行为，从而产生突然抛售的风险。
Another area which could be subject to stress is the corporate-bond market. According to Moody’s, the yield on American speculative (or junk) bonds reached 6.44%on February 9th, the highest since December 2016. The value of the largest junk-bond exchange-traded fund fell sharply (see chart). If the world economy keeps strengthening, companies should be able to meet their interest payments. Moody’s thinks the default rate on junk bonds will fall from 3.2% to 2% by the start of next year.
另一个可能承压的领域是公司债券。根据穆迪的数据，2月9日美国投机债（也称垃圾债券）收益率升至6.44%，这是自2016年12月以来的最高水平。如图所示，最大的垃圾债券ETF价格大幅下跌。如果世界经济持续走强，发债公司是有能力偿付利息的。穆迪认为，截至明年年初垃圾债券的违约利率将会从3.2%降至2%。
But the market has changed since the crisis of 2007-08. A decline in bank lending has forced European companies to turn to the bond markets; high-yield bond-issuance in the years 2013-17 was three times higher than in 2008-12, says Ironshield Capital, a fund-management firm. Banks are also devoting less capital to market making, meaning bonds could be hard to sell quickly. “Corporate credit could be the next crisis in the making,” warns Absolute Strategy Research, a consultancy, raising concerns about “potential liquidity issues associated with high yield”.
但自2007年至08年金融危机以来，市场已经发生了巨变。基金管理公司铁盾资本 （IronShield Capital）表示，银行贷款规模的减少迫使欧洲公司转向债券市场；2013年至2017年间高收益债券的发行总量是2008年至2012年的三倍。银行在做市商方面的投入资金也越来越少，这意味着债券很难快速出售。咨询公司绝对战略研究中心(Absolute Strategy Research)警告称 “企业信贷可能会引发下一场危机”。这也引发人们对“高收益债券潜在流动性”的担忧。
Market making：做市商，证券市场的两种主要交易机制是竞价方式和做市商制度。简单的来说坐市商就是中间人，交易人和他直接买卖股票，他从中赚去差价；竟价交易就是买方和卖方作为对手方，交易的对象不同
A third possibility is that markets may be too optimistic about economic growth. China’s purchasing-managers’ index for manufacturing has slipped back in recent months, and its credit growth has fallen to its slowest rate in 31 months. John-Paul Smith of Ecstrat, a consultancy, worries that the risks for the Chinese economy will be compounded by worsening tensions with America, and that these are likely “to become much more visible over the coming weeks, across a broad range of policy areas in addition to trade.” Both the Bloomberg Commodity index and the Baltic Dry (shipping) index, indicators that are sensitive to global demand, have dropped back in recent weeks.
第三种可能是市场对经济增长过于乐观。近几个月来，中国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)下滑，信贷增速已经降至31个月来最低水平。咨询公司Ecstrat的约翰保罗史密斯(John Paul Smith)担心，中美之间紧张局势加剧恶化将使中国经济面临风险，而且这些风险很可能在未来几周内，除了贸易之外，还有其他一系列政策领域变得更加明显。彭博大宗商品指数和波罗的海干散货(航运)指数（BDI）都是全球需求敏感指标，最近几周均有所回落。”
波罗的海干散货指数(Baltic Dry Index，缩写BDI)，是航运业的经济指标，它包含了航运业的干散货交易量的转变。散装航运业营运状况与全球经济景气荣枯、原物料行情高低息息相关。故波罗的海指数可视为经济领先指标
Of course, over-optimism about growth would mean that central banks have to be less vigilant about inflation and bond yields might come back down. But this would not be great news for equities, especially as analysts are forecasting nearly 18% profits growth this year for companies in the S&P 500, according to Andrew Lapthorne of Société Générale, a French bank. That leaves plenty of scope for disappointment.
当然，对经济增长过于乐观意味着各国央行对通胀的警惕性将降低，债券收益率可能回落。但这对股票市场来说并不是好消息，尤其是以法国兴业银行安德鲁.拉普索恩（Andrew Lapthorne）为首的分析师们预测：今年标普500指数成分股公司利润将同比增长18%。这种预期可能会与现实产生很大落差。
A related problem is that the American market represents more than half the MSCI World index, which means that people who think they have a diversified portfolio actually have a concentrated bet. As Mark Tinker of Axa Investment Managers points out, the last time one country comprised so much of the global index was Japan in the late 1980s. That did not workout so well.
需要注意的是，美国股票占摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数（ MSCI World index）一半以上，这意味着那些自认为投资多元化的人们实际上却孤注一掷。正如安盛投资管理公司的马克·丁克尔（Mark Tinker）主管指出的那样，上一个全球指数占比如此之高的国家是20世纪80年代后期的日本，可是日本没有取得很好的成果。
Some or indeed all of these worries may never be realised. But with the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio on the American stock market around twice its long-term average, equities are vulnerable to any kind of bad news.
有些或者所有这些顾虑可能永远不会发生。但随着美国股市周期性调整的市盈率约为长期平均水平的两倍，任何负面消息都会对股票造成影响。
翻译组：
Sue，女，影视行业，经济学人爱好者
Olivia，女，教育行业，经济学人爱好者
Meiling，女，机械贸易行业，经济学人爱好者
Lucia，女，翻译学硕士三年制，经济学人爱好者
校核组：
Emily，女，金融民工，经济学人粉丝
Damon，男，建筑民工，经济学人铁粉
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观点 |评论|思考
本次观点由金融民工Lulu全权执笔
划重点：单身
TE这篇文章的主要是在讲美国金融市场目前所面临的一些担忧，从市场波动性指数(恐慌指数)的突升，到高收益债券(垃圾债券)收益率的上涨，以及全球经济面的过高期许。
其实这三方面的因素，也可以从市场情绪，流动性，和基本面，三个角度来讲。
1.市场情绪。这也就是文章中所提到的羊群效应，美国市场上通常用VIX来作为资产配置的一个重要根据。参照指标一样，就容易产生类似的投资决策，从而发生跟风效应，加上现在很多机构投资者开始使用程序化交易，市场情绪就进一步转化为程序化设定当中雷同的风控因子。其实我们自己小韭菜炒股的追涨杀跌也就是一样一样的道理。
2.资金面。也可以理解为流动性。文章当中主要提到的是高收益债券也就是垃圾债券的收益率的持续攀升，而垃圾债券跟普通债券收益率的差额，其实是高收益债券违约概率的良好领先指标。通常在债市牛市或者说有充足的市场流动性支持再融资的情况下，企业能够通过相对容易的方式借新债还旧债。而差额变大即意味着，企业违约概率会提高，市场流动性对其支撑不够。
3.基本面。也就是整个经济所面临的宏观大环境。TE又一次把中国的影响力放到了一个非常高的位置，比如中国的制造业采购经理人指数这几个月走低了(其实还在50以上)，信贷增速放缓了，所以一定程度上反映了全球需求的低迷，影响了全球经济增长的脚步。信贷收缩几乎是各个国家应对美国货币紧缩政策作出的恰当反应，而且随着美国的实际通货膨胀率高于预期，很有可能会加快美国的加息步伐，进一步影响上文提到的资金面因子。
这些担忧，也是基于目前的市场状况和经济数据所作出的推测，当然它也有可能什么都不发生，比如春节期间的美股，你好我好大家好~
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