在选择和困惑的十字路口，通常会有一番思想的论战和辩论，真理越变越明朗，道路越论越清晰。
大至整个国家发展，小到个人行业发展都需要思想碰撞和观点的激荡。国家层面，比如一九零二年，康有为发表《答南北美洲诸华商论中国只可行改良不可行革命书》，挑起了“保皇改良派和民主革命派”的第一场大论战。行业层面，近期在科技领域也有人工智能和机器智能的观点讨论。
具体到语言服务行业，近期有几位资深译者、机器翻译研发人员、高校翻译教师的前辈在微信群讨论地比较热烈，个人认为这是非常不错的方式，为了助推这种讨论趋势，我们也写了一篇抛砖引玉的文章《翻译的十点预测》，也欢迎大家把能收集到的观点贴在文末评论区，方便整体阅读和评估。
今天写这篇文章的目的是希望我们可以充当一个论辩擂台，让各种观点在此汇聚和碰撞，聚合在一起形成合力，产生更大的思考价值。今早在朋友圈也收集到了一些分领域资深译者的讨论意向，有一位工程翻译的人士也准备以这种十点体的方式来探讨下工程翻译的问题。
适逢周末，今天主要对昨天发布的《翻译的十点预测》译文补充一些论据和同行观点。
在此主要选取两篇文章的一些不错的预测和观点。
德国翻译服务机构 Dammann German English Translations 对翻译行业有一个五点趋势判断，涉及机器翻译、视频翻译、翻译类应用、在线教育翻译、翻译的价值。
Translation Industry Future Top Trends
Machine translation is taking over more and more and many organizationsare in the process of initiating the use of translation tools based on machine tools such as “translation memory” and a Google invention that has recently been released. Both have the capability to perform a translation into many languages with great ease and increased efficiency.
Video translation is on the increase. The future of the translation industry is certainly seeing the greater use of online videos and there is the likelihood that translations of video content will become more prominent. A particular emphasis will be on eLearning courses that use video. This is because more and more people are signing up for eLearning courses from all over the world.
Translation apps are likely to become one of the translation trends. Translation apps are improving what they can do and are a useful addition to a business person’s travel luggage as they are making the task of translating so much easier and less clumsy and time-consuming. More of these will be seen in 2018.
Multilingual courses are expected to increase as virtually every significant business is trying to attract more and more customers wherever they are in the world. With this has come a rise in demand for eLearning courses in many different languages. This trend is set to continue well into 2018.
Translation is becoming a necessity as more and more organizations are trying to be seen in action globally, the translation that occurs between languages at present is becoming an absolute necessity. So, the language translation industry is going to be in top gear as a result of this initiative.
还有一篇CNBC报道，原标题为As the Earth feels ever smaller, demand for translators and interpreters skyrockets。论述的口笔译需求的增长，用的是 skyrockets这种词。
The number of people employed in the translation and interpretation industry has doubled in the past seven years, and the number of companies in the industry has jumped 24 percent in that same time period, according to the ATA, citing data from the Department of Labor. Through 2024, the employment outlook for those in the business is projected to grow by 29 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
'As the economy becomes more globalized and businesses realize the need for translation and interpreting to market their products and services, the opportunities for people with advanced language skills will continue to grow sharply,' said David Rumsey, president of the ATA, adding that the association predicts the largest growth is within contracted positions, giving workers and companies more flexibility.
While salaries within the industry vary, those who specialize in a difficult language can easily bring in six figures annually. The ATA helps connect freelance translators and interpreters with companies including Microsoft, Netflix and Honda, as well as government agencies such as the State Department and FBI, Rumsey said.
Philadelphia-based CETRA Language Solutions and companies like it work with about 1,000 independent contractors in translation services in any given year and recruit on a daily basis. And while there was once a fear that technology would replace humans in the process as demand for services increased, the opposite has happened — it's enhanced their work.
'The overall industry is growing because of the amount of content out there — it's increasing exponentially,' said Jiri Stejskal, president and CEO of CETRA. 'Technology is helping to translate more content, but for highly specialized content, you need an actual human involved.'
But finding successful employment is about much more than just speaking multiple languages fluently. Translators who want to distinguish themselves as professionals have to continue to work and hone their skill sets, the ATA's Rumsey said.
'It's a lifelong practice, and it requires keeping up not only your language skills but your subject matter skills so that you really understand the industries and fields you are working in,' Rumsey said.
Industry growth also extends beyond just companies seeking services. Organizations such as the United Nations are also hiring skilled translators, looking to add some 50 employees to its ranks of 450 translators, editors and verbatim reporters in New York City as its workload increases. Positions at the U.N. are highly coveted, and translators work on tight deadlines.
'We cannot afford second quality,' said Zhongliang Chen, chief of the Chinese translation service documentation division at the United Nations department for general assembly and conference management. 'The United Nations is a political organization, dealing with a lot of sensitive issues, and the member states demand the best from the translators.'
Each year, thousands of people apply to take the organization's language competitive exam so they can work as translators with the organization, but only a few hundred, like Ghia El Bardan, are successful.
The 31-year-old previously worked as a translator in a peacekeeping mission in her home country of Lebanon. Now she's putting her language skills to work at the U.N., translating documents from English and French into her native Arabic.
'Ever since I was in high school, I was fascinated with foreign languages and cultures,' El Bardan said.
Early stage translators at the U.N. can make around $60,000 a year to start but can move into the six-figure rangedepending on the role. Opportunities for advancement are far-reaching, and the payoff at the organization comes with the chance to be part of something greater than just a career.
'The best part of the job is the multicultural environment,' she said. 'We come from different cultures, backgrounds, genders and age groups. I think this is enriching on the professional and interpersonal level.'
当然两篇文章论述的可能只是德国和美国的情况，但是也有一定的借鉴意义，在昨天文章的第九点就提到译员国际化视野的问题。
为了引导大家讨论地更加细致，今天的议题是具体到中国翻译市场，语言服务的需求是否增长？增长点和领域在什么方面？对应昨天我们提出的前两个观点。
跨语言翻译需求持续增长。根本原因在于中国市场不断增长，国际化程度越来越高。国外企业希望进入中国市场，他们对外译中的需求会持续增长，而最近几年中国企业出海的愿望日益增长，有的企业另辟蹊径主打东南亚或非洲市场甚至有一些中国特有模式比如猎豹、Wi-Fi 共享、共享单车、今日头条智能推荐这类模式发源于中国的企业直接放眼全球，也取得了比较好的战绩，在这一波出海潮的影响下，中译外的需求会持续增长。
IT、互联网和在线教育等领域的翻译需求增长会异常显著。IT、互联网和在线教育等领域一方面信息量最大，另一方面也有放眼全球的野心，在资本的助推下，一旦场景和模式得到验证，各类数据和资料将会快速增长，而翻译的需求是建立在数据量的基础上的。
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