每日原则：所有市场都是由4个决定因素驱动的

所有市场都是由以下4个决定因素驱动的：经济增长、通胀、风险溢价和折现率。

这是因为所有的投资都是以当前的一次性支付换取未来的支付。这些未来的现金支付取决于经济增长、通胀、风险溢价（即投资者相对于持有现金所愿承担的风险）和决定投资的当前价值（所谓的“现值”）的折现率。

这4个决定因素的变化驱动投资回报的变化。如果能知晓每个决定因素的未来形势，我就可以确定投资策略。这些认知告诉我如何把当前世界形势与当前市场形势联系起来，反之亦然。这些认知还告诉我如何平衡我的投资，使我的投资组合不受任何环境的影响，从而实现良好的分散化投资。

政府通过财政和货币政策影响这些因素。因此，政府目标与当前形势的相互作用成为周期的驱动因素。例如，如果经济增速过慢和通胀过低，央行就会创造更多的货币和信贷，由此产生购买力，拉动经济增长，通胀也会在一段时间后出现上升。如果央行限制货币和信贷供应，相反的情况就会发生：经济和通胀双双放缓。

如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。

All markets are primarily driven by just four determinants: growth, inflation, risk premiums, and discount rates.

That is because all investments are exchanges of lump-sum payments today for future payments. What these future cash payments will be is determined by growth and inflation, what risk investors are willing to take in investing in them as compared to having cash in hand is the risk premium, and what they are worth today, which is called their “present value,” is determined by the discount rate.

How these four determinants change drives how investment returns change. Tell me what each of these determinants is going to do and I can tell you what the investments are going to do. Knowing this tells me how to connect what is happening in the world to what is happening in the markets and vice versa. It also shows me how to balance my investments so that my portfolio doesn’t have any bias to any environment, which is what produces good diversification.

Governments influence these factors through their fiscal and monetary policies. As a result, interactions between what governments want to happen and what is actually happening are what drive the cycles.