做出正确决策的原则

2. 不管你押对的概率已经有多大，提高你的押对概率始终有价值。

3. 对你的决策进行可信度加权 。

4. 和可信的、愿意表达分歧的人一起审视你的观点。

5. 诚恳地相信你也许并不知道最好的解决方法是什么，并认识到，与你知道的东西相比，能不能妥善处理“不知道”才是更重要的。

6. 谨记，你是在寻找最好的答案，而不是你自己能得出的最好答案。

7. 要认识到 (1) 影响好决策的最大威胁是有害的情绪；(2) 决策是一个两步流程 (先了解后决定)。

8. 若由你负责做决策，要把可信度加权后得出的结论和你自己的想法做比较。

Many of you have asked about how to know when you’re making the right decision, so I wanted to share some of the principles that have helped me in moments like this.

1. Find the most believable people possible who disagree with you and try to understand their reasoning.

2. Raising the probability of being right is valuable no matter what your probability of being right already is.

3. Triangulate your view with believable people who are willing to disagree.

4. Believability weight your decision making.

5. Sincerely believe that you might not know the best possible path and recognize that your ability to deal well with “not knowing” is more important that whatever it is you do know. 

6. Remember that you’re looking for the best answer, not simply the best answer that you can come up with yourself.

7. Sincerely believe that you might not know the best possible path and recognize that your ability to deal well with “not knowing” is more important that whatever it is you do know. Recognize that 1) the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions and 2) decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding).

8. When you’re responsible for a decision, compare the believability-weighted decision making of the crowd to what you believe.