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导读
为什么北爱尔兰边境问题成了脱欧的死结？
自卡梅伦于2013 年1月29日正式提出脱欧公投以来，已经过去六年有余。梅姨提出的脱欧协议一次次被否决，这场拉锯战依然看不到终点。我们不得不承认脱欧确实暴露出了许多被我们忽视了的问题。人们也从当年的嘘声一片进而认真审视这背后的原因。本月专题阅读将聚焦于当前脱欧的死结：北爱尔兰问题。为何北爱尔兰会成为脱欧中的一道关卡？一个独立的北爱尔兰又能否解决当前脱欧的困局？此外，我们也要思考北爱尔兰问题究竟是形势所迫还是又一个分离主义的产物？分久必合合久必分，究竟谁才是时代的主导？
另外，考虑到主题内的文章逻辑衔接问题，特此制作下面所示的思维导图，每个月的主题介绍都将以此种导图来告知我们的选文逻辑和前进脉络，导图中加深色的那个层级是本周的文章内容，三级标题的内容是本周文章的核心点。
感谢思维导图作者：
Bruce, 精力充沛，想要上山打老虎的一枚小白
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
Northern Ireland 来自一天一篇经济学人 00:00 21:14
Past and future collide
过去和未来的冲突
英文部分选自经济学人20180331Briefing版块
Past and future collide
过去和未来的冲突——北爱尔兰与英国纠葛的前世与今生
Twenty years after a peace deal the mood is sour in Northern Ireland
达成和平协定的二十年后，北爱尔兰问题再次恶化
Questions set carefully aside for future generations have been forced back onto the agenda
原本谨慎留给后人的问题被迫重新提上议事日程
WHEN the Irish Republican Army at last put aside its weapons, ending a century-long insurgency against the British state, witnesses were needed to confirm that the guns were gone for good. Two clergymen were chosen, Harold Good, a Protestant, and Alec Reid, a Catholic. As they travelled in secret between rural arms-dumps with the IRA’s quartermasters and an international team of weapons decommissioners, they noticed a young IRA man with an old-fashioned rifle among the group. When the last of the arsenal had been destroyed, the young man marched up to the general in charge, clicked his heels and solemnly handed over his gun. Now in his 80s, Reverend Good recalls the moment: “Father Reid said to me, ‘There goes the last weapon out of Irish politics.’ We just fell silent.”
当爱尔兰共和军最终放下武器，爱尔兰与英国长达一个世纪的对抗得以终结，需要有人证实这场战争永久结束了。新教徒哈罗德·固德（Harold Good）和天主教徒艾力克·瑞德（Alec Reid）两位牧师便是见证者。当他们和爱尔兰共和军军需官以及一个国际武器清除小组秘密行走在乡村的军械库中时，他们注意到队伍中一名年轻的爱尔兰共和军男子手中拿着一支老式来复枪。在最后一座军械库被摧毁后，这个年轻的男子正步走向将军，“咔嗒”立定后庄严地交出了枪支。现在年已八十多岁的固德牧师回忆道：“瑞德神父对我说，‘代表爱尔兰政权的最后一件武器没了。’，我们陷入了沉默”。
注解：
① insurgency：in-=in/into, on/upon, towards，在这种词义下，一般只与词缀结合（这与inactive, incorrect中in-=not的意义迥异，注意区分，以及这种词义下只与单词结合），surg-=to rise up, 来源于拉丁语，-ency(-ence)为名词后缀，如：surge, resurgent等。
②for good: permanently, 这里容易把good理解为名词（good本身有名词的意义），但经词典查证为习语。
③大多数北爱尔兰人属于两个不同的派别：联合派或民族派。大多数联合派人士是新教徒（Protestants），大多数民族派人士是天主教徒（Catholics）
Northern Ireland’s long war ended with the Belfast Agreement, signed on Good Friday in 1998. The deal between the governments of Britain and Ireland, in conjunction with the main Northern Irish parties and the paramilitaries some of them spoke for, spun a delicate web of compromises between the province’s Protestants, most of whom want to remain in the United Kingdom, and its Catholics, who more often identify with the Republic of Ireland. The “Troubles” of the previous 30 years—the most recent spasm in a conflict dating back to Britain’s planting of Protestant settlers in the 17th century—caused the deaths of more than 3,500 people, mostly civilians. Tony Blair, then Britain’s prime minister, later described signing the deal as “one of the few times in the job I can honestly say I felt contented, fulfilled and proud.”
1998年，北爱尔兰于耶稣受难日当天签署了《贝尔法斯特协议》，持续多年的争执由此结束。该协议由英国和爱尔兰（主要的爱尔兰政党以及他们支持的准军事组织）签订。这个协议在北爱尔兰的新教徒和天主教徒之间编织了一张微妙的妥协网：前者大多数想留在英国，而后者则坚持回归爱尔兰共和国。自1968年以来，北爱尔兰冲突不断——最早的冲突可追溯到17世纪，那时英国新教徒移民至北爱尔兰，导致3500多人丧生，其中大部分是平民。时任英国首相的托尼·布莱尔（Tony Blair）后来描述签署协定时说道“老实说，这是我政治生涯中为数不多让我感到满足、有成就感、自豪的时刻之一。”
注解：
①Good Friday, Black Friday的变体，意为耶稣受难日（复活节前的星期五）
②spun a dedicate web of compromises此处翻译欠妥当，请各位读者赐教。
Yet 20 years on, the mood is sour. In Belfast the Stormont assembly has lain empty for over a year. The British and Irish governments have warned that commemorations of the agreement will feel “hollow”. The two countries are publicly bickering over Northern Ireland’s fate after Britain leaves the European Union next year. Vexed questions that the Good Friday Agreement had carefully put aside—on borders, identity and to whom Northern Ireland really belongs—are dangerously back in play.
然而，二十年过去了，北爱尔兰问题再一次恶化。在贝尔法斯特（Belfast），斯托蒙特（Stormont）议会已经闲置一年多。英国和爱尔兰政府都发出警告，纪念该协议毫无意义。鉴于英国明年脱欧，北爱尔兰不知何去何从，便与英国公开争吵。令人烦恼的是，《耶稣受难日协议》（ the Good Friday Agreement）曾将边界、身份认同以及北爱尔兰真正的归属问题搁置一旁，现在这一棘手的问题又重新上演。
注解：
over: 这里over的义项是“对…来说，关于…”，over的用法多元值得引起注意。这里可以记住over one’s fate这个搭配，一般而言over这个义项与名词的搭配是固定的，注意积累即可，如：debate over, conflict over, control over等。
Changed utterly
彻底改变
Under the agreement Ireland gave up its claim on the north and Britain agreed to a mechanism by which Northern Ireland could secede via a future referendum. The Northern Irish gained the right to citizenship of the United Kingdom, Ireland, or both. International bodies were set up to give the two countries shared oversight of how the place was run. And a devolved government was established at Stormont, one in which nationalists and unionists would share power. Paramilitaries who had dealt in Semtex and Armalites turned their attention to early-day motions and the d’Hondt voting system.
根据协议，爱尔兰放弃对北爱尔兰的主权，且英国同意建立一个机构——未来北爱尔兰可以通过全民公投来决定是否脱离英国。北爱尔兰人可获得英国\爱尔兰或两国兼有的公民权的权利。两国成立了国际组织，共同监督该机构的运作。在斯托蒙特（Stormont）建立了一个政府，并将权力下放，民族主义者和工会主义者将共享其权力。曾在塞姆汀炸药公司（Semtex）和阿玛莱特公司（Armalites）工作过的准军事组织将注意力转向早期的动议和洪德（D'Hondt）投票系统。
注解：
secede: se-=apart, ced-(异形根为cess-, ceed-)= to go, 来自拉丁语, 如：procedure, succeed, process.
Security has been transformed. In 1972, the bloodiest year of the Troubles, 498 people were killed in sectarian violence. As recently as the early 1990s the annual death toll was around 100. Now it is in the low single digits. Northern Ireland’s murder rate is equal to the British average, its overall crime rate slightly lower. Sectarian hate-crimes have fallen by more than half since 2005, when they started being recorded. Belfast feels like a normal European city. Crumlin Road prison, once a holding place for paramilitaries, is now a tourist attraction that hosts weddings (promising, and doubtless providing, “a surrounding that will keep your guests talking”).
原本安全的环境有所转变。在北爱尔兰冲突不断的时间里，1972年是最为血腥的一年，当时有498人在宗派暴力冲突中丧生。在最近的20世纪90年代初，北爱尔兰每年的死亡人数在100人左右，现在却低至个位数。北爱尔兰的谋杀率与英国的平均谋杀率持平，但其总体犯罪率相对略低一点。自2005年有记录以来，宗派仇恨犯罪率下降了一半以上，贝尔法斯特（Belfast）感觉就像一个普通的欧洲城市。克拉姆林路监狱（Crumlin Road prison）——曾经作为准军事组织的避难所，现在是举办婚礼的旅游景点（一个具有发展潜力的旅游景点，它的历史绝对能成为游客的谈资）。
Yet not all the past is so deeply buried. The police detect the “continuing existence and cohesion” of an IRA hierarchy, though they accept that the organisation is now committed to a political path. So-called dissident republican gangs continue to fight a lonely war against the British state, foiled most of the time by the police and MI5, Britain’s security service, which still devotes about 15% of its energies to Northern Ireland.
然而，并非所有的过去都被湮没了。警方尽管接受了爱尔兰共和军统治集团现在致力于政治活动，但还是察觉到该组织会继续存在，并有持续的凝聚力。这个持不同政见的所谓共和党团伙继续孤军奋战，反对英国政府，但大部分时间都受挫于警方和军情五处（英国的安全服务），后者仍然将大约15％的精力用于对付北爱尔兰。
Paramilitary gangs on both sides of the sectarian divide are active in organised crime. Their “punishment” beatings and shootings of drug-dealers, pimps and loan-sharks purport to be for the protection of “their” communities, but often they simply want the business for themselves. Some former paramilitaries have been prosecuted, others have been co-opted. The hardest ones to deal with, says George Hamilton, the chief constable, are those in the murky middle ground, who “want to be community workers by day and paramilitary thugs by night”.
宗派分歧双方的准军事组织都在活跃并有组织地犯罪。他们殴打、枪击毒贩，皮条客和高利贷者，声称是为了保护“他们的”社区，但往往只是想把生意据为己有。一些前准军事组织成员已被起诉，另一些则被收服。警察局长乔治·汉密尔顿说，最难对付的是那些处于黑暗的中间地带的人，这些人“白天想当社区工作人员，晚上想当准军事暴徒”。
Such organisations live on because Northern Irish society is still divided. Physical walls, known as peace lines, still separate some working-class Catholic and Protestant areas. Indeed, more have been built since 1998, because they are popular. “I wouldn’t like it down,” says a resident of Bombay Street, a Catholic district in Belfast separated from Protestant Shankill by a ten-metre-high wall. “They’re lovely people. It’s just the lunatics.” The wall has been made higher several times since it was erected in 1969. Stones still sail over, so houses nearby have metal cages over their back gardens.
北爱尔兰的分裂使得这样的组织得以继续存在。被称为“和平线”的实体墙仍将一些工人阶级的天主教和新教地区隔开。事实上，自1998年以来建造了更多这样的墙，因为它们很受欢迎。“我不希望它倒塌，”一位住在孟买街(Bombay Street)的居民说。孟买街是贝尔法斯特的一个天主教区，与信奉新教的尚基尔区隔着一道10米高的墙。“他们都是友好的人，只是那些极端分子作祟。”自1969年修建以来，这堵墙已经多次加高，但由于有时仍会有石头砸过去，所以附近房子的后院都放有铁笼。
注解：
①live on: 这里容易误解为“依赖……而活”之意，这是介词on在表示“靠什么”之下的义项，如：depend on, rely on, rest on, 还见于on+n。但这里是另一个意思“继续，持续”之意，如： stay on, go on, carry on.
②erect: ex-(异形根e-, ef-)=out, out of, 来自拉丁语, rect-=be straight, erect在这里做动词，意为：to build sth，显然这里ex-的意思被淡化了。如：exaggerate, exempt, exit, effect.
Devout and profane and hard
虔诚，世俗，艰难
Surveys show that three-quarters of people would like to live in integrated neighbourhoods, and two-thirds would send their children to mixed schools. Yet making this happen has proved difficult. A handful of mixed social-housing developments have been started, but the “lunatics” make them dicey places to live. Last year four Catholic families in amixed-housing project inCantrell Close, Belfast, were advised by police to leave, after threats from paramilitaries. The share of children in formally integrated schools has edged up only slightly since 2000—from 3% to 5.8% in primary and from 5.6% to 8.6% in secondary—partly because of opposition from the Catholic church, which runs many schools of its own. The province remains astonishingly segregated (see map).
调查显示，四分之三的人愿意居住在综合社区，三分之二的人会把孩子送到综合学校上学。然而事实证明，要做到这一点并不容易。一些混合的社会福利住房开发项目已经启动，但由于“极端人物”的存在，这些房子成为危险住房。去年，在贝尔法斯特市Cantrell Close的一个混合住宅区中，四个天主教家庭在受到准军事组织威胁后，警察便建议他们离开那里。自2000年以来，在综合学校上学的儿童比例略有上升——小学从3%上升到5.8%，中学从5.6%上升到8.6%。部分原因是天主教会的反对，因为他们有自己开办的学校。这个地区仍存在惊人的种族歧视现象。
注解：
对mixed housing的较为详细的介绍
http://www.social-life.co/blog/post/mixed_housing_evidence/
In other areas there has been progress. Integration has deepened in the workplace, helped by laws compelling big firms to publish the religious breakdown of their staff. Catholics hold nearly half the jobs in both the public and private sectors, in line with their share of the population. A once-yawning unemployment gap has nearly closed. Catholics hold high-profile public offices, including those of attorney-general and Lord Chief Justice. Their share of police officers has risen from one in ten at the turn of the century to one in three, after a temporary affirmative-action programme.
除教育外，其他领域也有所进展。在法律的强制规定下，大公司必须公开员工的宗教信仰情况，这加深了各公司的融合。天主教徒覆盖了政府部门和私营企业近一半的职位，这与他们在人口中所占比例一致。曾经巨大的失业差距几乎缩至为零。天主教徒在政府担任高的职位，其中包括检察长和首席法官。在实施了一项临时的平权行动计划后，天主教徒从事警察的比例从世纪之交的十分之一上升到了三分之一。
National and religious identities are blurring, particularly among the young. A Protestant minister says he now christens more children with Irish names like Una, Malachi and Sadhbh. Many young Catholics have little interest in Ireland, which some refer to as “Mexico”. “I’d rather go to Spain or something, to tell you the truth,” says Martin, a 29-year-old who lives near the Falls Road in Belfast. Surveys find that about a third of the population considers itself British, a slightly smaller share says Irish, and around the same reports itself to be neither, but rather Northern Irish.
国家和宗教的身份认同越来越模糊，尤其是在年轻人当中。一位新教徒牧师表示，他会给更多带有爱尔兰名字的孩子洗礼，比如尤娜（Una），玛拉基书（Malachi）和萨德布（Sadhbh）。很多年轻的天主教徒对爱尔兰不感兴趣，将其称为“墨西哥”。“说实话，我更想去西班牙或者别的地方。” 29岁的马丁（Martin）说，他住在贝尔法斯特的瀑布路（the Falls Road）附近。调查表明，有三分之一的人认为自己是英国人，而认为自己是爱尔兰人的比例略低。还有三分之一的人认为自己并不属于这二者，而属于北爱尔兰人。
This nuanced, cautiously evolving identity is lost in a local politics that is crudely sectarian, and becoming grimly more so. At the time of the agreement the main forces in Northern Irish politics were the Ulster Unionists and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), which represented the moderate forms of unionism and nationalism, respectively. Those two parties have since been swept aside by the harder-line Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the IRA and the only party that stands at elections both in Northern Ireland and the Republic. Whereas in 1997 the region’s 18 Westminster seats were split between five parties, in last year’s general election the DUP and Sinn Fein took all but one. They have also come to dominate the devolved assembly and executive.
这种细致入微、谨慎演变的身份认同迷失在地方政治中，但地方政治的宗派主义色彩十分浓厚，而且越来越严重。签订协议时，北爱尔兰政治的主要力量是阿尔斯特联盟主义者、社会民主党和工党，分别代表了温和工会主义和民族主义。自那以后，采取强硬路线的民主统一党(DUP)和新芬党将这两个政党扫地下台。新芬党是爱尔兰共和军的前政治党派，也是北爱尔兰和爱尔兰共和国唯一参加选举的政党。1997年，该地区18个议会席位被5个政党瓜分，而在去年的大选中，民主统一党和新芬党却获得了17个席位，他们也开始控制权力下放的议会和行政机构。
注解：
①Sinn Fein新芬党(1905年建立的爱尔兰政党,旨在联合拥护爱尔兰独立的资产阶级和小资产阶级)
②SDLP社会民主党（支持爱尔兰合并，但反对使用武力。在过去十年中SDLP失去了许多支持者。党内目前有更加趋向新芬党的民族主义派别和放弃民族主义派别的斗争。）
③DUP民主统一党（在堕胎、死刑、欧洲联盟和女权等争议问题上它是右派，在同性恋权利问题上它似乎比较开明。DUP的政治一般比较趋向于帮助它的工人和农村选民，比如老年人可以免费乘车，欧洲联盟对农业的资助等。）
In January last year a long-simmering row between the two parties blew up and Sinn Fein walked out; without its participation, the institutions cannot function. Fourteen months without a government have proved trying. The budget has been delayed, laws to reorganise health care and tackle domestic abuse have been put on ice, public-sector pay rises have not been honoured, and institutions such as the policing board, which holds the police accountable, have been unable to fulfil their functions. Negotiators predict that it will be months before the two parties work together again.
去年1月，两党之间酝酿已久的争吵爆发，新芬党退出；然而没有新芬党的参与，政府机构无法正常运转。事实证明，没有政府的14个月是艰难的。预算被推迟，重组医疗体系和解决家庭虐待问题的法律被搁置，公共部门的工资增长没有得到兑现，像警察委员会这样的机构也无法正常工作。谈判人员预计，双方需再过几个月才能再次合作。
That such an impasse can persist is in part due to the design of the Good Friday Agreement, which intentionally provided a plethora of constitutional vetoes to protect each side against the other. The ability of either main party to collapse the executive by walking out makes for unstable, high-stakes government. The agreement has fostered a structural divide in other ways, too. A supermajority required for legislation that could threaten one community has been cynically used by both sides to block measures they merely dislike. Parties must declare themselves followers of one of the “two traditions” (they may register as neither, but then lose some voting rights).
这种僵局之所以持续，部分原因在于签定了《耶稣受难日协定》。该协议有意提供了过多的宪法否决权，以保护双方免受对方的伤害。任何一个主要政党都有权选择退出以瓦解政府部门，置政府于不稳定、高风险的境地。该协议在其他方面也造成了结构性分歧，比如立法需要采取绝对多数制，这会威胁到社区立法，于是两党都会利用这一规定来阻止他们不喜欢的规则。政党必须表示要追随“两种传统”(他们可能会称两者都不是，但这会失去一些投票权)。
Paul Nolan, a Belfast-based researcher, compares the polarisation to a seesaw: whenever one party has moved farther from the centre, the other has done the same to balance it. Seeing the other side as ever more extreme, voters feel they have little choice but to vote for their own lot of extremists. As one assembly member puts it: “If they’re going to elect an arse, we’re going to elect an arse.”
贝尔法斯特的研究员保罗·诺兰（Paul Nolan）将两极分化比喻成跷跷板：任何一方只要远离中心，另一方必须得采取同样的方式保持平衡。看到对方阵营愈发极端化，选民认为除了投给自己阵营的极端人士外别无选择。正如一位议员所说：“如果他们要选举出一个笨蛋的话，我们也得选出一个笨蛋。”
When the Stormont government has run aground before, Britain and Ireland have stepped in to get it back afloat. But Britain’s role as a referee has been impeded by a deal last year between the Conservatives and the DUP, which agreed to support Theresa May’s minority government in Westminster on important votes in return for £1bn ($1.4bn) of extra money for Northern Ireland. The alliance “undermines a tradition of neutrality going back to at least 1990,” says Jonathan Powell, who as Mr Blair’s chief of staff helped to negotiate the Good Friday Agreement.
早在斯托蒙特政府搁浅以前，英国和爱尔兰已经介入，希望使其重归正轨。但保守党与民主统一党去年签订的一份协议阻碍了英国发挥调解作用。该协议约定，若（北爱）在议会关键票决中支持特雷莎·梅（Theresa May）领导的少数党政府，北爱尔兰将获得10亿英镑（14亿美元）的额外投资。该联盟“破坏了中立传统（该传统至少可以追溯到1990年）”，还曾促进了《贝尔法斯特协议》的签订，布莱尔的幕僚长——乔纳森·鲍威尔（Jonathan Powell）如是说。
注解：
①. impede: im-=in，into(原形为in-, 在词根首字母为b m p 时同化为ib im ip), ped=foot, 来自拉丁语，如：pedal, pedestrian等。②.minority government 少数派政府或少数内阁，是执政党或联盟的各方在议会没有过半数议席时形成的内阁。
.Westminster 威斯敏斯特宫，位于伦敦市内，为英国议会所在地，此处代指英国议会。
②Good Friday Agreement 贝尔法斯特协议，又称耶稣受难日协议，由英国和爱尔兰政府于1998年4月10日（耶稣受难日）在北爱首府贝尔法斯特签订，是北爱和平进程一个主要的里程碑。
To get Stormont back up and running, Ireland has called for a meeting of the agreement’s British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference—which could be chaired either by Ireland’s foreign minister and Britain’s Northern Ireland secretary, or by Mrs May and Leo Varadkar, the Irish taoiseach. Britain has not taken up the offer (an official says Ireland has not issued a formal request). The DUP is opposed to it. “The British government needs to remove the blocks. But it’s tied to the DUP,” says Gerry Kelly, a Sinn Fein assemblyman.
为了让斯托蒙特恢复运作，爱尔兰呼吁召开英国-爱尔兰政府间会议，主持人员或为爱尔兰外长及北爱尔兰国务卿，或为梅和爱尔兰总理利奥·瓦拉德卡（Leo Varadkar）。英国尚未接受该提议（一官员称爱尔兰尚未发出正式声明）。民主统一党对此持反对态度。新芬党议员格里·凯利（Gerry Kelly）说，“英国政府需要扫除这些障碍，但这与民主统一党息息相关。”
What is more, Mrs May and Mr Varadkar have another matter on their minds: Brexit. In 1998 Britain and Ireland were, in the words of the Good Friday Agreement, “partners in the European Union”. On March 29th 2019 that will cease to be the case. In 2016 the High Court in Belfast ruled that Brexit would not formally invalidate the agreement, as some had argued. But it will complicate the relationship hugely.
此外，梅和瓦拉德卡（Varadkar）还在思索另一件大事：英国脱欧。用《贝尔法斯特协议》中的话来说，1998年的英爱关系是“欧盟中的伙伴国家”。2019年3月29日，这种状态将被打破。正如一些人士所言，在2016年贝尔法斯特高级法院便裁定，英国脱欧不影响协议生效。但是英爱关系会变得更加复杂。
Britain and Ireland have identified 142 areas of cross-border co-operation. Combined cancer services, a single wholesale power market and police intelligence-sharing give an idea of the range. Officials reckon most of this can more or less continue, though it will involve mountains of work—but regret that future initiatives will be harder to get started. Northern Ireland has received a lot of EU money, via initiatives such as Peace IV, worth €270m ($335m) in 2014-20. Unlike funding from Britain (tainted in the eyes of some Catholics) or America (long involved in the peace process, but seen as leaning towards the nationalists by some Protestants), EU grants are viewed as neutral. The EU has indicated that some funding can continue after Brexit.
英爱两国已经确定在142个跨境领域进行合作，涵盖癌症服务、单一电力市场和警察情报共享。官员们认为，尽管工作量庞大，但在大部分领域都可以保持合作关系。遗憾的是，未来发起合作倡议将会更难。2014到2020年间，北爱尔兰通过和平四号等倡议获得欧盟大量资金援助，价值2.7亿欧元（约3.35亿美元）。不同于英国拨款（一些天主教徒视其为污秽）与美国投资（长期参与和平进程，但被一些新教徒视为偏向民族主义者），欧盟的资金援助是中立的，英国脱欧后，仍能继续拨款。
The biggest problem concerns the border, around which Mrs May has drawn three negotiating “red lines” that seem to run into each other. She insists that Britain will leave the EU’s customs union and single market. Yet she also promises there will be no new customs checks or physical infrastructure at the Irish border, or any between Northern Ireland and Britain.
最大的问题出在边境，梅就此划定了三条似乎相悖的协商“红线”。她坚称英国会摆脱欧盟的关税同盟和单一市场。然而，她也承诺在爱尔兰边境和北爱与英国交界处不会新增海关检查及相关基础设施建设。
The government argues that trusted-trader schemes, waivers for small firms and unspecified technology could let customs checks be carried out invisibly. So far the EU is not convinced. Some member states are unwilling to turn a blind eye even to trade by small businesses. And no one, including the Northern Ireland committee of Britain’s Parliament, has yet identified technology that could enforce customs controls without any infrastructure.
政府称，可信赖贸易商计划、小企业豁免权或未具体说明的某种技术都能在无形中进行海关检查。到目前为止，欧盟还不认可这一说法。一些欧盟成员国也不愿对小企业间的贸易睁一只眼闭一只眼。而且，包括英国议会北爱委员会在内的所有组织都无法证明，没有基础设施的支持下，只凭技术就可以实施海关管制。
Borderline disorder
过境乱序
The opposition Labour Party backs membership of a customs union, as do a handful of Tory rebels. Mrs May said in February that she was open to a customs “arrangement”, which could amount to something very similar. Yet Jacob Rees-Mogg, who speaks for an influential caucus of Eurosceptic Tories, has said that the right to set tariffs, possible only outside a customs union, is “non-negotiable”. And it is not clear that membership of a customs union alone would be enough to maintain the invisible border, anyway. If Britain leaves the single market and diverges from EU regulatory standards, goods crossing the border would need to be checked.
反对党工党及少数保守党倒戈者都支持关税同盟。今年二月，梅表示，她对关税同盟的“安排”持近乎开放态度。然而，具有一定影响力的持疑欧论的保守党核心组织代表雅各布·里斯·莫格（Jacob Rees-Mogg）表示他坚决捍卫在关税同盟外设定关税的权利。而且，关税同盟国能否凭一己之力维持无形边界尚不明确。如果英国退出欧盟市场并脱离欧盟监管标准，货物过境则需要安检。
The idea of such inspections is neuralgic for those who live near the frontier. Conor Patterson, head of the Newry and Mourne Enterprise Agency in South Armagh, remembers when Newry last had a customs post. It was blown up in 1972, killing nine people. His father required a triangular badge from the police to cross the border, something which could take an hour at busy times. British soldiers would sprint through the streets of Newry, for fear of snipers. Nearby Bessbrook was home to the busiest heliport in Europe, operated by the British army. The local roads were so dangerous that it had to fly men and supplies around the 18 nearby watchtowers.
对于那些生活在边境的人来说，出行检查着实让人头疼。南阿马郡纽瑞-莫恩企业（Newry and Mourne Enterprise Agency）负责人康纳·帕特森（Conor Patterson）仍记得在纽瑞海关发生的事件。该事件发生于1972年，造成了9人死亡。他的父亲须从警方获取一枚三角徽章才能过境，而该徽章在繁忙时间需要一个小时才能到手。为防止狙击暴乱，英国士兵很可能会冲进纽瑞街道。而附近的贝斯布鲁克（Bessbrook）是在欧洲最繁忙的直升机场的所在地，由英国军队管理。由于当地的路段都极其危险，因此英国军队只能将人员和物资运送到附近的18座瞭望塔。
No one foresees a return to those conditions. But David Davis, Britain’s Brexit secretary, betrays a deep and complacent misunderstanding of the problem when he breezily suggests that the frontier could resemble that between America and Canada. “It’s not a question of the speed of the lorries crossing the border. It’s the question of identity,” says Mr Powell. To win support for the 1998 agreement, nationalist leaders in both north and south needed to show tangible benefits. None was clearer than dismantling the border. A Canada-style crossing, one with “people in uniforms with arms and dogs”, is “not a solution [Ireland] can possibly entertain”, Mr Varadkar said on March 5th.
没人预料到又回到了那些情况。但英国脱欧部长大卫·戴维斯（David Davis）轻率地认为，英国边境问题与美加面临的问题相似，这简直是对这一问题深刻而自满的误解。鲍威尔说，“这不是货车穿越边境的速度问题，而是身份问题”。为了赢得对《1998年协议》的支持，南北双方的民族主义领导人需要展现其切实的利益。没有比拆掉边界更明了的了。瓦拉德卡尔在3月5日表示，用加拿大式“警察携武器牵警犬陪同过境”解决“爱尔兰”边境问题是不能接受的”。
The security services are aware of the risks. “We would have a responsibility to have a presence there,” says Mr Hamilton. In policing terms, “any physical infrastructure or control measures that required people to be physically at the border would be a very bad thing…It would be perceived as being a symbol of the British state.” Dissident republican paramilitaries, who have almost no public support for their cold-blooded attacks on police, might win wider backing for strikes on border installations. Resentment at a return to a hard border could provide the “sea” of public sympathy that Mao Zedong said terrorists need to swim in, fears Brian Feeney, a former SDLP councillor.
安全部门意识到了这些风险。汉密尔顿表示:“我们有责任在那里开展业务。”从治安方面来说，“任何需要人在边境上参与安检的基础设施或控制措施都是非常糟糕的……这将被视为英国国家的象征。” 几乎没有公众支持持不同政见的共和党准军事部队冷血袭警，但他们可能会在打击边境设施上赢得广泛的支持。前社会民主党议员布莱恩·菲尼（Brian Feeney）担心，在边界重新实行强硬手段引发的怨恨会大面积激起公众的同情心，Mao Zedong said terrorists need to swim in.
Nor would the EU’s suggested “backstop” of a customs border between Northern Ireland and Britain be easy to swallow. “People would absolutely resist any attempt to cordon off” the province from the mainland, says Winston Irvine, a Shankill community leader who is familiar with the thinking of west Belfast’s paramilitaries. Unionist protests have flared over far smaller affronts to British identity. A decision in 2012 to reduce the days on which the union flag would fly at Belfast City Hall triggered a year of protests in which 150 police officers were injured and a political party’s office firebombed. “People are getting a bit twitchy about where all this is going to land,” says Mr Irvine.
欧盟提出的建议，即在北爱尔兰和英国之间建立海关边界的“后盾”也不容易让人接受。熟悉西贝尔法斯特准军事部队思想的尚基尔社区领袖温斯顿·欧文(Winston Irvine)表示:“人们绝对会抵制任何封锁该省的手段”。联合主义者因对英国身份的小小冒犯而爆发抗议。2012年，贝尔法斯特市政厅减少悬挂英国国旗天数的决定引发了为期一年的抗议活动，造成150名警察受伤，一个政党的办公室遭到燃烧弹袭击。欧文表示:“人们对这一切将在哪里结束感到有点不安。”
The mood of reanimated Irish nationalism and unionist mistrust of the British government is “all rather redolent of 1920”, notes Diarmaid Ferriter, a historian at University College Dublin. Then, Northern Ireland was separated from the south, ahead of the creation of the Irish Free State. Now, he says, “Brexit has thrown the issue of the unity of Ireland back into the frame.”
都柏林大学的历史学家迪尔梅德.费里特尔（Diarmaid Ferriter）指出，爱尔兰民族主义的复苏和工会主义者对英国政府的不信任情绪“让人想起1920年”。在爱尔兰自由国建立之前，北爱尔兰从南方分离出来。现在，他表示，“英国脱欧将爱尔兰统一的问题重新提上日程。”
注解：
reanimate：re-=back, anim=life（含有spirit, soul,life等概念含义）, 来自拉丁语，-ate为名词后缀。如：animal, unanimous.
Taking back control
夺回控制权
注：《脱欧》—take back control
https://www.baidu.com/sf_baijiahao/s?id=1622602696799441291&wfr=spider&for=pc
No one was surprised when Sinn Fein demanded a unification referendum a few days after the Brexit vote. Less expected have been the shifts in thinking among moderate nationalists. “If we’re at constitutional ground zero then absolutely, we’re going to start looking at the north-south question,” says Claire Hanna, an SDLP member of the assembly. In December Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister, said he hoped to see a united Ireland “within my political lifetime”. He is 45.
果不其然，英国退欧公投结束几天之后，新芬党要求举行全民公投。他们不期待温和派的态度能发生转变。克莱尔汉娜（Claire Hanna）是北爱尔兰社会民主工党众议院一员，他说“如果我们站在宪法的核心点，那么，毫无疑问，我们需要开始关注南北问题了。”爱尔兰外交部长西蒙·考文尼(Simon Coveney)说，在退休之前，他希望看到一个完整的爱尔兰。而他现在才45岁。
注解：
ground zero: the central point in an area of fast change or intense activity（某区域发生快速变化或剧烈活动的）中心点
Could it happen? Northern Ireland’s Catholics will soon outnumber its Protestants. In March 2017 Sinn Fein came within 2,000 votes of outpolling the DUP in elections to the assembly. Not all the party’s supporters, let alone all Catholics, would vote for unification. A poll in 2015 found that 30% of Northern Irish would be in favour—and when respondents were told that it would mean higher taxes (a near certainty, as Ireland could not afford the £10bn of subsidies that Britain shovels to Northern Ireland each year), the figure dropped to 11%. Support in Ireland dropped from 66% to 31% when the financial implications were pointed out.
这事可能吗？北爱尔兰天主教徒的数量很快将超过新教徒。在2017年三月份的选举中，新芬党以接近2000票险胜北爱尔兰民主统一党，成功进入众议会。并不是所有的民主统一党支持者都支持统一，更不用说数量庞大的天主教徒了。2015年的一项民意调查显示，30%的北爱尔兰人表示支持统一，而当他们被告知这意味着更高的税收时（几乎可以肯定，因为爱尔兰无力偿还英国每年向北爱尔兰提供的100亿英镑补贴），这个数字降到11%。指明带来的经济后果后，对爱尔兰的支持率从66%降至31%。
It remains to be seen how much Brexit will move those figures. But at a time when populist nationalism is on the rise around the world, matters of culture and identity can sometimes count for more than economic self-interest. Whatever else they misjudge about Ireland, Brexiteers, of all people, should understand that.
随着脱欧的进行，这些数据会如何变动还不好说。但是，在全球民粹主义崛起的今天，文化和身份往往高于经济上的一己之私。无论脱欧派有无作出对爱尔兰的其他误判，人们都应该明白这一点。
翻译组：
Sigrid 英语爱好者 大四狗
Bella，大四老腊肉，热爱英语
Peter，外贸老狗，国际贸易专业
Zeppelin 背包客 英专 口语爱好者
Yang，爱好英语，经济学人爱好者
Terri.Tan 一个喜欢张杰的英语死忠粉
Thomas 医学民工 宇宙中的火龙果
Rachel，女，处女座翻译生，经济学人粉
Evelyn，女，英专本科生，经济学人粉丝
Emily 非英语专业，不久前完成托福GRE备考，英语爱好者
校对组:
Carol，爱好英语，备考二笔中~
Sofia 翻译硕士，专八，备考二笔中
Kemay 决心练好笔译的未来口译员
Anna 英专宅女一枚，爱运动，爱读书
Sindy 英语专业，CATTI备考，工作党
Bruce, 精力充沛，想要上山打老虎的一枚小白
标注组:
Sofia 翻译硕士，专八，备考二笔中
Victoria,刚完成考研党，经济学人爱好者
Bruce, 精力充沛，想要上山打老虎的一枚小白
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观点|评论|思考
本次观点由VeRy全权执笔
Very 男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者
前段时间受朋友之约，说写点什么。这几天一直在思考，在查阅资料和文献，好在我也不是一个急着下结论的人，所以我今天就谈谈几种可能性，其实很容易会有所联想，我更希望把这种联想理解成为善意的借鉴和思考，本质上讲人的思想应该是设计成无法被控制的吧（但也仅仅是本质上而言，看看那么多宗教信仰者们，再看看现实的种种，事实应该可以证明，人们的思想还是可以被控制和左右），所以我们，至少是尚未被控制的这部分人，可以从中看出点什么，至于行动，哪怕只是去思索的一刹那，也是一种莫大的勇气，当然也是一种莫大的罪恶了。
第一种可能性，分离是必然不会成功的，但是为了舞台上的表演，更加功利一点说，为了底下那一大批观看演出的群众，必须要演得逼真，分开有近在咫尺的感觉，让群众们觉得自己正在掌握历史，历史的篇章真的由我们书写，但如同魔术一般，在不拆穿真相之前所有的观看者们都是幸福的，除非演砸了，否则真相是何其的残酷！这种手段就比赤裸裸地强行安排巧妙得多，如果是那些不明事理的平头百姓，自然是打心眼里佩服和羡慕了。两者对比，高下立判。
第二种可能性，分离是有可能的，天真幼稚的演说家们为了内心尚存一丝的童真而宁愿付出这可能的惨痛分离。一切顺应天意，一切顺其自然，该来的你躲不掉，但至少你保持住了内心的信仰，其他都不重要了。
大概就这两种可能性了，但是，大概率是第一种，只不过可能是上次演得太过逼真感人，有点疏忽大意，这次玩脱了。就好像魔术表演穿帮了，那就没办法按照剧本走了，但由于是实时转播，所以只能硬着头皮继续下去。好的表演家们就会催眠自己说一切都没有穿帮，一切都还在掌控之中，但是一次又一次的驳回次次都像响亮的耳光，已经打得自己面目全非。所以可预见的结果就是这戏演砸了。
但是这并不算是坏事，就好像最新一集billions里面Chuck Rhoades一样，没有底线只追求胜利的表演家们会掏出自己全部的家当，甚至是老婆和孩子放在赌桌上，可能群众们会认为自己看到了表演者们真挚的感情和辛勤的努力，进而同情将戏演砸了的演员们。这可能是唯一值得期待的大反转。
至于我们自己的思考，如前所述，哪怕思考存在过那么一秒钟，我已经对你竖起了大拇指，然后将拇指尖朝下。
4
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