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芒格论理性和不为清单 地球上关于什么是理性(平常心),最权威的解答人估计就是芒格了。 Q: Some...

地球上关于什么是理性(平常心),最权威的解答人估计就是芒格了。

Q: Someone once asked you what accounts for your investing success, expecting a long complex answer, and you famously replied, 'I'm rational.' So how do you define rationality?

A: People who say they are rational [should] know how things work, what works and what doesn't, and why. That's rationality. It doesn't help if you just know what's worked before, because if you know why, then you'll be better at it. So rationality is: Across a broad range of disciplines, you know what works and what doesn't and why.

That's why somebody like [the late Singaporean prime minister] Lee Kuan Yew was the best nation-builder that probably ever existed in the history of the earth. His motto was: Always figure out what works and do it. Figure out what works and do it. You're going to figure what works and do it [while] the rest of the world wants to please others or they want to do something or other. I want to be: Figure out what works and do it.

And I get such pleasure out of figuring something out that's not really working.

问:曾经有人问你,你投资成功的原因是什么?你回答是理性,你如何定义理性呢?

答:理性就是知道事情是如何运转的,什么可行,什么不可行,以及为什么(注:这四句话分别代表本质,对的事,错的事和常识)。你只知道以前什么行得通是没有用的,如果你知道为什么,你就能做得更好。理性是:在广泛的学科范围内,你知道什么可行,什么不可行以及为什么

这就是为什么像李光耀这样的人是人类历史上可能存在的最好的国家建设者。他的座右铭是:搞清楚什么是可行的,然后去做。当其他人想要取悦他人,或者想要做些什么的时候。我想做的是:找出什么是可行的,然后去做。我也非常乐意找出什么是不可行的。(就是大道说的做对的事和不做不对的事情的意思)

Q: I wouldn't ask most people this, but I'm sure you won't mind. What would you want the first paragraph of your obituary to say?

A: Both Warren and I feel it's our moral duty to be as rational as we can possibly be. A lot of people who are brilliant in some ways tend to make these utterly asinine decisions in other ways. We both tend to collect the asininities of the world in a kind of checklist. And we try to avoid everything on the checklist.

问:我不会问大多数人这个问题,但我相信你不会介意。你想在讣告的第一段说些什么?

答:沃伦和我都认为,尽可能保持理性是我们的道德责任。很多在某些方面很聪明的人往往会在其他方面做出一些完全愚蠢的决策。我们倾向于把世界上的愚蠢收集到一个清单里,我们尽量避免清单上的一切

Q: But why isn't Berkshire easier to emulate?

A: We're talking about very simple ideas of just figuring out the standard stupidities and avoiding them. And I actually collect them!

Some people collect stamps. I collect insanities and absurdities. And then I avoid them, and it's amazing how well it works, because I've gone by [the examples of] all these people that are more talented than I am.

If I had set out to invent more quantum mechanics, I would've been an also-ran. I just set out to avoid the standard stupidities, and I've done a lot better than many people who mastered quantum mechanics.

And it's a way for mediocre people to get ahead and it's, it's not much of a secret either. Just avoid all the standard stupidities. There are so many of them, and so many brilliant people do it.

Being a prodigy is hard. I'm not trying to be a prodigy, I'm just trying to avoid the inanities, including the inanities of the prodigies!

....That enables a man of moderate abilities and moderate work habits to get so much more than his logical deserts. Think of the talent it takes to make a lot of money.

问:但伯克希尔为何不容易效仿?

芒格:我们讨论的是一些非常简单的想法,即找出通常的愚蠢之处并加以避免。我真的收集了它们!

有些人收集邮票,我收集愚蠢和荒谬,然后避开他们,令人惊讶的是,这种方法竟然奏效了,因为我已经通过了所有这些比我更有天赋的人的例子。

如果我开始发明更多的量子力学,我就会落选。我只是避免通常的愚蠢,而且我比许多掌握量子力学的人做得好得多。

这是普通人获得成功的一种方式,这也不是什么秘密。只要避免通常的愚蠢行为。愚蠢行为很多,很多优秀的人在做愚蠢行为。

成为天才是很难,我不想努力成为天才,我只是努力避免愚蠢,包括天才的愚蠢!

....这使只有普通能力和普通工作习惯的人得到比他的逻辑应得的多得多的东西。想想赚大钱所需要的才能。

问:究竟什么是思维模型?

芒格:我研究什么是有效的,什么是无效的。那些有效的道理,就是思维模型。

我一生中,花费大量的时间研究人是如何失败的,我要弄明白那些无效的策略。

芒格专门讲理性,认为理性是成功的最重要因素,比能力、勤奋都要重要。芒格的误判心理学就是讲人什么时候容易失去理性。这几个问答都是关于理性的。

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