澳大利亚陷入困境的房地产市场接下来会发生什么?
整个国家会继续崩溃吗?澳大利亚房地产市场崩盘的不同之处，隐藏在新闻标题之下，或许能提供一些线索。
你对房价下跌很熟悉——澳大利亚首府城市的平均房价下跌了7%左右。
珀斯的整体降幅要大得多(较峰值下降18%)，悉尼的跌幅也不小，那里的房价下跌了14%。
墨尔本紧随其后，跌幅为10%。
阿德莱德和布里斯班的情况相当稳定，而霍巴特的情况则有所好转，其峰值现在已经到来。
澳大利亚地区房价下跌2.5%，尤其是西澳州，该地区房价下跌32%。
但还有另一种方式来看待房地产市场。租房者。而租房数据则讲述了一个引人入胜的故事。
在墨尔本，房价下跌的同时，租房空置率也在下降。
找租户很容易，租金也在上涨。
这表明对住房的需求依然强劲。
墨尔本房价的下跌似乎是有限度的。
但在悉尼，租房空置率正在上升。这是有道理的，因为房价下跌得如此之快。
这两个事实都表明，人们不再那么想要悉尼的住房了。
不管你怎么看，悉尼的住房需求都很疲软
你可以在下面的图表中看到悉尼和墨尔本的租金空置率，以及其他几个市场的租金空置率。
租房数据提供了对房地产市场的洞察。资料来源:澳大利亚央行2019年2月货币政策声明
总体而言，澳大利亚房东从出租物业中获得的收入增长更为缓慢。广告上的租金在墨尔本越来越贵，但在悉尼却越来越便宜。
了解租赁市场的实力对于预测未来的房地产市场非常重要。
未来几年，悉尼、墨尔本和布里斯班都将有大量公寓投放市场。
许多高楼大厦的地基在繁荣时期用混凝土浇筑而成，而在萧条时期，它们将得到最后一层油漆。这就是房地产开发的循环性质——通过试图满足需求峰值，它们造成了供应过剩，从而加剧了泡沫破裂。如果每个开发人员同时做同样的事情，那么对于一个开发人员来说，看起来合理的行为过程可能就不合理了。
将这些新建房屋投放市场可能会对房价和租金产生负面影响。最大的问题是:谁将住在这些房产里?
在墨尔本，这个问题就不那么令人担忧了。随着空置率的下降和人口的强劲增长，这些新房显然是有市场需求的。
澳大利亚主要城市人口增长率之间的差异是显著的。
增长最低的是阿德莱德，年增长率为0.8%，增长最快的是墨尔本，年增长率为2.5%。
但在悉尼和布里斯班呢?
风险在于，大量新楼盘将难以找到合适的租户——无论是自住者还是租户。这将进一步推低价格。
对于许多悉尼的公寓来说，情况尤其如此。这些公寓建在远郊，而这些地方传统上并不建公寓。
政策的影响
澳大利亚租赁市场的未来也受到未来负扣税的影响。
但这与租房需求关系不大，而与租房供应关系更大。
负扣税是一项税收规定，允许投资物业的业主从其应纳税收入总额中扣除任何损失。
例如，如果他们收取的租金与他们的总拥有成本之间有2000澳元的差额，他们可以从工资或工资收入中扣除。
在我们的例子中，他们的应纳税收入将减少2000澳元。
对于一个对收入的边际澳元缴纳45%税的人来说，这将为他们每年节省900澳元。
通过这种方式，负扣税使拥有出租房产的损失减少了痛苦，并起到了鼓励人们投资房地产的补贴作用。
工党承诺从明年1月1日起免除对现有房产购买者的负扣税。
如果他们赢得选举并修改法律，这可能会给房地产市场带来有趣的变化。希望购买现房的投资者可能会减少。这应该意味着现房将慢慢地从投资者手中转移到自住者手中。
如果可供出租的房屋减少，租金可能会上涨。但与此同时，随着试图购买投资性房产的投资者减少，购买现房的价格可能会下降。
对于租房者来说，这可能是成为第一个买房者的大好时机。
What the rental market tells us about property prices
What is going to happen next to Australia’s troubled housing market?Will the whole country keep crashing? There is a difference in the housing crashes around Australia, hidden beneath the headlines, that might provide a clue.
此文章出于
<News Corp Australia, APR 21, 2019>
You’re familiar with the price falls — Australia’s capital city average house price is down around 7 per cent.
The total fall is much worse in Perth (down 18 per cent from the peak), and has been especially sharp in Sydney, where prices are down 14 per cent.
Melbourne is not far behind, down 10 per cent.
Adelaide and Brisbane are fairly steady while Hobart is up, its peak is right now.
Regional Australia is down 2.5 per cent, especially regional WA, where home prices are down 32 per cent.
But there’s another way to look at the housing market. Renters. And the renting numbers tell a fascinating story.
In Melbourne, while house prices fall, rental vacancy rates are falling.
It’s easy to find a tenant and rents are rising.
That suggests there is continuing strong demand for housing.
There may, it seems, be a limit to falling prices in Melbourne.
But in Sydney rental vacancy rates are going up. That does make sense, with house prices falling so fast.
Both of those facts suggest people don’t want Sydney housing so much any more.
Demand for housing is Sydney is weak no matter how you look at it
You can see the rental vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne in the graphic below, as well as the rental vacancy rates in several other markets.
Renting numbers offer an insight into the real estate market. Source: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy February 2019
Overall, the income Australian landlords are getting from rental properties is growing more slowly. Advertised rents are getting more expensive in Melbourne, but cheaper in Sydney.
Understanding the strength of the rental market is important for seeing the future of the housing market.
Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are all set to have a large number of apartments released onto the market in the next few years.
Many tall towers that had their foundations concreted in the boom time will get their final coat of paint amid the bust. Such is the cyclic nature of property development — by trying to meet peak demand, they create an oversupply that fuels the bust. What looks like a rational course of action for one developer might not be rational if every developer does the same thing at once.
Releasing those newly-built properties onto the market could have negative effects on both property prices and rents. The big question is: Who will live in all those properties?
In Melbourne, that question is not such a concern. With vacancy rates falling and strong population growth, there is apparently a willing market for those new homes.
The difference between population growth rates in Australia’s major cities is notable.
The lowest growth is in Adelaide, where its at 0.8 per cent per year and the fastest is Melbourne, which is growing at a very rapid 2.5 per cent a year.
But in Sydney and Brisbane?
The risk is a flood of new properties will struggle to find anyone to live in them — whether owner-occupier or tenant. That would push prices down further.
This is especially the case for the many Sydney apartments being built in the outer suburbs where apartments have not traditionally been built.
Apartment buildings started during the boom are now coming onto the market. Picture: AAP Image/Brendan Esposito
NEGATIVE GEARING
The future of Australia’s rental market is also affected by the future of negative gearing.
But this is less about demand for rental housing, and much more about supply of it.
Negative gearing is a tax rule that allows owners of investment properties to deduct any losses they make from their total taxable income.
If for example they have a $2000 shortfall between the rent they collect and their total costs of ownership, they can subtract that from their salary or wage income.
In our example, their taxable income would then be $2000 lower.
For a person paying 45 per cent tax on the marginal dollar of income, that would save them $900 a year.
In this way, negative gearing makes losing money on owning a rental property less painful, and operates as a kind of subsidy that encourages people to invest in property.
The Labor Party is promising to get rid of negative gearing for buyers of existing property starting on January 1 next year.
If they win the election and change the law, this could cause interesting changes in the property market. It is likely fewer investors will want to buy existing homes any more. That should mean existing homes slowly move out of the hands of investors and into the hands of owner-occupiers.
If fewer rental properties are available, rents might go up. But at the same time, with fewer investors trying to buy investment properties, the price of buying an existing home might come down.
It could be a great time for a renter to become a first home buyer.
翻译人：Jason
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