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《BP世界能源展望（2018年版）》(简称“展望”）中文版日前在北京发布。《展望》指出了2040年前全球能源转型的推动力以及关键的不确定性因素。鉴于能源转型的速度无法确定，新版《展望》针对一系列情景展开了探讨。
The 2018 edition of BP’s Energy Outlook (“Outlook”) Chinese version is published recently in Beijing, China. The Outlook considers the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition. The speed of the energy transition is uncertain and the new Outlook considers a range of scenarios.
BP集团首席执行官戴德立表示，“BP集团的战略必须充满韧性，以适应能源行业的重大变化。
“BP’s strategy has to be resilient and adaptable to significant changes in the energy industry. said Bob Dudley, BP group chief executive.
这份《展望》探讨了其中一些变化可能带来的影响，将有助于我们制定长期规划。
This Outlook considers the possible implications of some of these changes and helps inform our long-term planning.
我们无法预测这些变化将会带给我们什么，但可利用这些知识来未雨绸缪，在满足未来能源需求方面发挥作用。”
We cannot predict where these changes will take us, but we can use this knowledge to get fit and ready to play our role in meeting the energy needs of tomorrow.”
《展望》中的大部分论述都是基于“渐进转型”情景。该情景及《展望》所列出的其他情景并不旨在预测可能发生的事情，而是旨在探索不同判断和假设可能产生的影响。
Much of the narrative in the Outlook is based on the Evolving Transition scenario. This scenario, and the others considered in the Outlook, are not predictions of what is likely to happen, rather they explore the possible implications of different judgements and assumptions.
《展望》提出了多种情景，并从燃料、行业和区域三个角度探讨了能源转型。除非另有说明，以下均为“渐进转型”情景下的研究发现。
The Outlook considers several scenarios and explores the energy transition from three different viewpoints: fuels, sectors and regions. Unless otherwise stated, the findings below relate to the Evolving Transition scenario.
BP集团首席经济学家戴思攀指出，“充足的能源供应加上能源效率的不断提升，将会使不同能源之间的竞争日益激烈。
“We are seeing growing competition between different energy sources, driven by abundant energy supplies, and continued improvements in energy efficiency. said Spencer Dale, BP’s group chief economist.
随着世界学会‘利用较少的资源做更多的事’，能源结构多元化将会达到极致，从而满足能源需求。”
As the world learns to do more with less, demand for energy will be met by the most diverse fuels mix we have ever seen.”
燃料分析
Fuel analysis
“到2040年，石油、天然气、煤炭和非化石能源将各占世界能源的四分之一左右，超过40%的能源需求增长将来自可再生能源。”戴思攀解释道。
“By 2040, oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each account for around a quarter of the world’s energy. More than 40% of the overall increase in energy demand is met by renewable energy,” explained Dale.
石油需求将在《展望》期内持续增长，最后几年趋于稳定。所有需求增长均来自新兴经济体。
Oil demand grows over much of the Outlook, although it plateaus in the later years. All the demand growth comes from emerging economies.
在《展望》期内的早期阶段，美国致密油是供给增长的驱动力；随着中东生产商采取扩大市场份额的战略，欧佩克将从21世纪20年代后期成为供给增长的主力。
The growth in supply is driven by US tight oil in the early part of the Outlook, with OPEC taking over from the late 2020s as Middle East producers adopt a strategy of growing market share.
交通运输业依然是全球石油需求大户，占整体增长的一半以上。
The transport sector continues to dominate global oil demand, accounting for more than half of the overall growth.
交通运输业的能源需求增长将在《展望》期内的末期阶段趋于平缓，大都来自非公路（主要是航空、海运和铁路）和卡车领域，汽车和摩托车的用油需求则有小幅增长。
Most of the growth in energy demand from transport, which flattens off towards the end of the Outlook, comes from non-road (largely air, marine, and rail) and trucks, with small increases from cars and motorbikes.
2030年之后，石油需求增长的主要来源是非燃烧部门，特别是作为石化产品的原料。
After 2030, the main source of growth in the demand for oil is from non-combusted uses, particularly as a feedstock for petrochemicals.
天然气在此期间增长强劲，驱动力包括新兴经济体的快速发展以及工业化和电力需求水平的不断上升、煤转气的持续推进，以及北美和中东地区低成本能源供应的不断增加。
Natural gas grows strongly over the period, supported by increasing levels of industrialization and power demand in fast-growing emerging economies, continued coal-to-gas switching, and the increasing availability of low-cost supplies in North America and the Middle East.
到2040年，美国在全球天然气产量中的占比将接近四分之一，全球液化天然气供应量将增加一倍以上。
By 2040, the US accounts for almost one quarter of global gas production, and global LNG supplies will more than double.
液化天然气供应量的持续增长将大幅推高全球天然气的供应量，液化天然气将在21世纪20年代初超过区域间管道气运输量。
The sustained growth in LNG supplies greatly increases the availability of gas around the world, with LNG volumes overtaking inter-regional pipeline shipments in the early 2020s.
《展望》期内的煤炭消费量趋于平稳，中国和经合组织消费量的减少将会被印度及其他新兴亚洲经济体需求的增加所抵消。
Coal consumption flatlines over the Outlook period, with falls in China and the OECD offset by increasing demand in India and other emerging Asian economies.
中国仍是最大的煤炭市场，到2040年将占据全球煤炭需求量的40%。
China remains the largest market for coal, accounting for 40% of global coal demand to 2040.
可再生能源增长超过400%，占全球发电量增长的50%以上。风能和太阳能的竞争力日益增强，使得这一强劲增长成为可能。
Renewable energy grows over 400% and accounts for over 50% of the increase in global power generation. This strong growth is enabled by the increasing competitiveness of wind and solar.
补贴制度到21世纪20年代中期会逐步取消，可再生能源相对于其他燃料的竞争力日益增强。
Subsidies are gradually phased out by the mid-2020s, with renewable energy increasingly able to compete against other fuels.
中国是最大的增长来源，其可再生能源的增长量将超过经合组织国家的总和；印度到2030年将会成为第二大增长来源。
China is the largest source of growth, adding more renewable energy than the entire OECD combined, with India becoming the second largest source of growth by 2030.
行业分析
Sector analysis
电力占一次能源需求增长的近70%。用于发电的燃料结构将发生重大转变，
Power accounts for nearly 70% of the increase in primary energy demand，
可再生能源蚕食份额的速度将超过其他任何一种能源，到2040年将从现在的7%增长至25%左右。
The mix of fuels used in power generation is set to shift materially, with renewable energy gaining share more quickly than any energy source in history, increasing from 7% today to around a quarter by 2040.
即便如此，煤炭到2040年仍是发电的最大能源来源。
Even so, coal remains the largest source of energy in power generation by 2040.
尽管交通运输需求总量将增长超过一倍，但交通运输对能源的需求量仅增长25%，由此说明车辆效率将快速提升。
Transport energy demand grows by only 25% despite total demand for transportation more than doubling, reflecting accelerating gains in vehicle efficiency.
尽管替代燃料越来越普及（特别是天然气和电力），交通运输业仍会以石油为主导（2040年约占85%）。
The transport sector continues to be dominated by oil (around 85% in 2040), despite increasing penetration of alternative fuels – particularly natural gas and electricity.
本期《展望》认为，电动汽车的数量及每辆车的使用强度是衡量电力在交通领域的渗透程度的最佳标准。
This year’s Outlook argues that the penetration of electricity in the transport sector is best measured by considering both the number of electric vehicles (EVs) and how intensively each vehicle is used.
在“渐进转型”情景中，到2040年电动汽车总量将超过3亿辆，仅占全球汽车保有量（近20亿辆）的15%左右。
In the Evolving Transition scenario, the share of EVs in the global car parc reaches around 15% by 2040 – more than 300 million cars in a car parc of almost 2 billion.
然而，同样考虑到电动汽车的使用强度，以电力驱动的乘用车行车公里数份额将会超过30%。
However, the share of passenger car kilometres powered by electricity, which also takes account of the intensity with which electric cars are used, is over 30%.
《展望》指出，全自动汽车与共享汽车共同发力将能大幅提升电动汽车的使用强度。
The Outlook shows how the interaction of fully-autonomous cars with shared mobility has the potential to substantially boost the intensity with which electric cars are driven.
2040年之前的这个时期，一个关键的不确定因素是电动汽车销售的增长速度。
A key uncertainty in the period to 2040 is the speed with which sales of electric cars increases.
为评估这种不确定因素的重要性，《展望》还探讨了全球自2040年起禁售内燃机汽车的情景。
To gauge the significance of this uncertainty, the Outlook considers a scenario in which there is a worldwide ban on the sales of cars with internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2040.
与“渐进转型”情景相比，该情景下每天的液体燃料需求量将会减少约1000万桶；但即便如此，“内燃机禁令”情景中2040年的石油需求量仍高于2016年。
This scenario reduces liquid fuel demand by around 10 million barrels a day relative to the Evolving Transition scenario but, even so, the level of oil demand in 2040 in the ‘ICE ban’ scenario is higher than in 2016.
“有人认为电动汽车的快速增长将导致石油需求崩溃，然而，即便电动汽车增长速度再快，这种观点也无法得到基本数据的支撑。”戴思攀解释说。
“The suggestion that rapid growth in electric cars will cause oil demand to collapse just isn’t supported by the basic numbers – even with really rapid growth,” explains Dale.
即使在内燃机禁令和极高效率标准的情景中，2040年的石油需求量仍高于今天的石油需求量。”
Even in the scenario where we see an ICE ban and very high efficiency standards, oil demand is still higher in 2040 than it is today.”
包括燃料的燃烧和非燃烧使用在内，工业能源需求约占能源消费增长的一半。
Industrial energy demand, including both combusted and non-combusted uses of fuels, accounts for around half of the increase in energy consumption.
效率提高将会促使工业能源需求增长放缓（不包括非燃烧领域），主要原因是中国正在减少能源密集型服务，朝着面向消费者的行业过渡。
Improving efficiency drives slower growth in industrial energy demand (excluding the non-combusted sector), in large part driven by China’s transition towards a less energy-intensive service and consumer-facing sectors.
中国能源需求增长放缓在一定程度上可能会被低收入经济体（包括印度和非洲）持续增加的能源需求所抵消。
Some of China’s slowing growth is likely to be displaced to lower-income economies, including India and Africa.
非燃烧使用燃料，特别是作为石化产品的原料，是石油和天然气总体需求中增长最快的部分。
Non-combusted use of fuels, particularly as feedstocks for petrochemicals, are the fastest growing source of overall demand for oil and gas.
非燃烧使用燃料的增长速度几乎会达到其他工业用途的两倍，尽管相对于过去，使用某些产品（特别是一次性塑料制品和包装）的环境压力会大幅抑制这一增长势头。
Non-combusted use of fuels grows at almost twice the rate of other industrial uses, although increasing environmental pressures on the use of some products, particularly single-use plastics and packaging, dampens growth quite materially relative to past trends.
石油占非燃烧能源使用量增长的近三分之二，其余大部分是天然气。
Oil accounts for nearly two-thirds of the growth in non-combusted use of energy, with natural gas providing much of the remainder.
区域分析
Regional analysis
所有能源消费增长都出现在快速增长的发展中经济体：到2040年，中国和印度将会占据全球能源需求增长的半壁河山。
All the growth in energy consumption is in fast-growing developing economies: China and India account for half of the growth in global energy demand to 2040.
在此期间，随着中国向更可持续的经济增长模式过渡，其能源增长将会放缓。
Through the period China’s energy growth slows as it transitions to a more sustainable pattern of economic growth.
印度的需求增长放缓并不明显，该国将在21世纪30年代初超越中国，成为全球增长最快的能源市场。
India’s slowing in demand growth is less pronounced and by the early 2030s it overtakes China as the world’s fastest growing market for energy.
在《展望》期末，非洲在推动能源需求方面也会发挥更加重要的作用，2035年至2040年其对全球需求增长的贡献率将高于中国。
In the latter stages of the Outlook, Africa also plays an increasingly important role in driving energy demand, contributing more to global demand growth from 2035 to 2040 than China.
中国的能源结构持续演变，煤炭在一次能源中的占比将从2016年的62%下降至2040年的36%。
China’s energy mix continues to evolve, with coal’s share declining to 36% in 2040, from 62% in 2016.
可再生能源迅速扩张，将从2016年的3%攀升至2040年的18%，届时占全球可再生能源的31%。《展望》同时预测，中国将在2026年左右实现碳排放达峰。
Renewables expand rapidly and its share rises from 3% in 2016 to 18% in 2040, accounting for 31% of global renewables by then. The Outlook expects that China’s carbon emissions from energy use will peak in 2026.
BP中国区总裁杨筱萍指出“中国正值能源低碳转型的关键时期。
“China’s energy system is undergoing a critical period of low-carbon transformation,” said Dr. Xiaoping Yang, BP China President.
我们希望借助BP进入中国45年来累积的深厚行业经验以及全球领先的技术专长，继续积极参与并助力中国加速清洁低碳、安全高效能源体系的全面建设。”
combining BP’s deep industry insights accumulated over the past 45 years in China, as well as our world-leading technological expertise, BP will continue to actively contribute to China’s overall construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.”
碳排放
Carbon emissions
在《展望》的“渐进转型”情景中，到2040年碳排放将增加10%。
In the Outlook’s Evolving Transition scenario, carbon emissions rise by 10% by 2040.
虽然这远低于过去25年的增长速度，但仍高于为实现巴黎承诺所需达到的降幅。
While this is far slower than the rates seen in the past 25 years, it remains higher than the sharp decline thought to be necessary to achieve the Paris commitments.
因此《展望》还探讨了一个“更快的转型”情景，其能够实现与国际能源署“可持续发展情景”相同的碳排放大幅下降程度，即到2040年碳排放将比2016年下降近50%。
As such, the Outlook also explores an Even Faster Transition scenario, which has the same broad decline in carbon emissions as the International Energy Agency’s ‘Sustainable Development Scenario’ where carbon emissions fall by almost 50% by 2040.
相对于“渐进转型”情景，这种情景中额外的减排量大部分来自发电，到2040年这个行业接近完全脱碳。
Most of the additional abatement of emissions in this scenario, relative the Evolving Transition scenario, come from the power sector, which is almost entirely decarbonized by 2040.
戴德立总结说：“我们需脱离过去，实现决定性的突破。在BP，我们仍认为必须将碳定价作为一个关键因素，因为它能激励各方发挥作用，诸如更有效利用能源的消费者以及提供更多低碳能源的生产者。”
“We need a far more decisive break from the past,” concluded Dudley. In BP, we continue to believe that carbon pricing must be a key element as it provides incentives for everyone to play their part – from consumers using energy more efficiently to producers providing more low-carbon forms of energy.”
编辑 / 李静
来源 / 经济日报（记者陈颐、朱琳）
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