Chapter 1 Price Action
第一章价格行为
For a trader, the fundamental issue thatconfronts him repeatedly throughout the day is the decision ofwhether the market is trending or not trending. If it is trending,he assumes that the trend will continue, and he will look to enterin the direction of the trend ("With Trend"). If it is nottrending, he will look to enter in the opposite direction of themost recent move ("fade" or "Countertrend"). A trend can be asshort as a single bar (on a smaller time frame, there can be astrong trend contained within that bar) or, on a 5-minute chart, itcan last a day or more. How does he make this decision? By readingthe price action on the chart in front of him.
对于交易者，每天都要面对也整天都要面对的一个基本问题，就是对市场是正处于趋势行情还是无趋势行情之中做出判断。正处于趋势中，他就假定趋势将会延续，并打算按照目前趋势的方向进场交易（“顺势交易”）；如果没有明确的趋势，他就会打算按照市场最近移动方向的相反方向介入交易（“衰竭交易”，或者“逆市交易”）。一个趋势可能短到只是一根K线（在更小的时间框架下，这一根K线可能就包括了一个强劲趋势波段），也可能长到在5分钟图表上延续一天甚至更长时间。交易者该如何做出判断呢？那就是阅读面前的图表上的价格行为。
The most useful definition of price actionfor a trader is also the simplest: it is any change in price on anychart type or time frame. The smallest unit of change is the tick,which has a different value for each market. Incidentally, a tickhas two meanings. It is the smallest unit of change in price that amarket can make, and it is also every trade that takes place (so ifyou buy, your order will appear on the Time and Sales table, andyour fill, no matter how large or small, is one tick). Since priceis changing with every tick (trade) during the day, each pricechange becomes an example of price action. There is no universallyaccepted definition of price action, and since you need to alwaystry to be aware of even the seemingly least significant piece ofinformation that the market is offering, you must have a very broaddefinition. You cannot dismiss anything because very oftensomething that initially appears minor leads to a great trade. Thebroadest definition includes any representation of price movementduring the course of trading. This includes any financialinstrument, on any type of chart, in any time frame.
对交易者而言，价格行为最有用的定义，同是也是最简单的：价格行为就是价格在任何形式的图表上或者任何时间框架下图表上的任何变化。价格变化的最小单位是点（Tick），在不同的市场里，它包含的价值差别很大。顺便说一下，点这个词具有两种意思，一方面，它是市场价格变化的最小计量单位；另一种意思，它也是指市场中发生的每一笔交易（比如，如果你买入，你的买单就会出现在时间与报盘单上，你成交了，不管这笔交易多大或多小，它就是一个点）。由于一天里的价格变化是逐点（笔）进行的，价格的每一次变动就成为价格行为的一个样本。由于对价格行为并没有被广泛接受定义，也由于你需要一直关注市场给出的哪怕是最不起眼的信息，你就必须持有一个非常宽泛的定义。你不可忽视任何东西，因为开始时看起来不起眼的事情却经常演化成一个非常大的交易机会。最宽泛的定义包括了在交易过程中价格变化的各种表现。这包括了任何金融工具，任何图表、任何时间框架。
（评：Tick在汉语里很难找到一个对应的词汇，用“点”其实并不准确。我见到有的书直接音译为“滴克”，倒也不失为一种办法。TICK的两种意义，作为最小计量单位，也许可以用“点”来对应；作为一次交易，则是用“笔”来表达才最准确。但把这两种意思结合起来，怎么翻译才合适呢？事实上，一笔交易与另一笔交易之间的距离不一定只是一个点，在快速行情里就会出现跳空，使价格不连续；一个点上成交的也可能不止一笔。在沉闷行情里，可能在同一个价格上要成交好几笔却引不起价格移动一个点。因此，用“点”和“笔”都不能很好的对应Tick的本义。我曾想用“跳”来表达这个概念，事实上，价格的一“跳”也确实可以对应一个TICK，它是一笔交易，成交价与前一成交价可能有差异，也可能无差异。但是，毕竟这是一个少人用的计量方式，以我的地位，尚不足以引入这个新的计量单位吧。这是一个翻译方面的问题，就像前面提到的Setup的翻译问题一样，和Al Brooks无关。就AlBrooks的原著来说，这一段对价格行为的定义还是可以接受的，它就是价格的任何变化。但把金融工具、图表形态、时间框架等因素也引进来，就有点画蛇添足，反而越说越乱了。）
The definition alone does not tell youanything about placing a trade because every bar is a potentialsignal both for a short and a long trade. There are traders outthere who will be looking to short the next tick, believing thatthe market won't go one tick higher, and others who will buy itbelieving that the market will likely not go one tick lower. Oneside will be right, and the other will be wrong. If the buyers arewrong and the market goes one tick lower and then another and thenanother, they will begin to entertain the prospect that theirbelief is wrong. At some point, they will have to sell theirposition at a loss, making them new sellers and no longer buyers,and this will drive the market down further. Sellers will continueto enter the market, either as new shorts or as longs forced toliquidate, until some point when more buyers come in. These buyerswill be a combination of new buyers, profit-taking shorts, and newshorts who now have a loss and will have to buy to cover theirpositions. The market will continue up until the process reversesonce again.
价格行为的定义自身并不会告诉你任何与交易相关的东西，因为每一根K线都可能是潜在做多信号，也可能是潜在做空信号。总有一些交易者打算在下一个点上做空，他们相信市场不会再上升一个点；同时有另一些打算做多，他们相信市场不会再下降一个点。总有一方是对的，另一是错误的。如果是做多的买家错了，市场就会向下运行一个点位，然后再一个点，又一个点，买家就开始考虑他们之前的预期是不是错了。直到价格下降到某一个点时，他们不得不赔钱卖掉持有的仓位，这让他们成为市场里的新卖方而不再是买方，也把价格推得更低。卖家不断进入市场，有的是下新单，有的是原来的多头单被迫平仓，这一过程一直持续到某一个有更多买家进入的点上。这些买家由新的买家、获利平仓的前卖家、以及刚刚卖出现在有了浮亏而止损平仓者共同组成，他们推动市场不断向上，直到这个过程被再次反转。
（评：这段对价格变化过程的描述没有大问题，如果要挑刺，那就是:卖家并不一定都认为价格不会再向上动一个点，他们只是担心失去交易机会而入场，为了不失去交易机会而愿意承担价格再向上动几个点所带来的浮动亏损，这种情况不是也很常见吗？对价格行为的成因，许多其它的书上都有类似的描述，显然，AlBrooks不是专家，他的表达不够严谨，不如那些理论大师们的文字经得起推敲。AlBrooks还是不要谈这些理论问题的好，在东方文化里，知道自己所短并尽量避开，叫“藏拙”，是一种较高的为人处事境界。）
Everything is relative, and everything canchange into the exact opposite in an instant, even without anymovement in price. It might be that you suddenly see a trendlineseven ticks above the high of the current bar and instead oflooking to short, you now are looking to buy for a test of thetrendline. Trading through the rearview mirror is a sure way tolose money. You have to keep looking ahead, not worrying about themistakes you just made. They have absolutely no bearing on the nexttick, so you must ignore them and just keep reassessing the priceaction and not your profit and loss (P&L) on theday.
所有的东西就是相对而言的，都可以瞬间转化到完全相反的方向上去，甚至不必在价格上有任何变化。你正打算做空，突然就看见目前这根K线上方有一根趋势线，你转而做多，想从价格回撤测试上方趋势线的过程中小赚一笔。通过后视镜进行交易总会让你赔钱，你必须一直向前看才行，不要为你刚刚犯下的错而操心，它们对下一个点位完全没有影响，所以你必须忘了它们，继续评估价格行为，而不是评估你今天是亏了还是赚了。
（评：你搞清这几句话之间的关系了吗？弄懂Al Brooks想说什么了吗？酒真不是一个好东西！）
Each tick changes the price action ofevery time frame chart from a tick chart or I-minute chart througha monthly chart, and on all charts, whether the chart is based ontime, volume, the number of ticks, point and figure, or anythingelse. Obviously, a single tick move is usually meaningless on amonthly chart (unless, for example, it is a one tick breakout ofsome chart point that immediately reverses), but it becomesincreasingly more useful on smaller time frame charts. This isobviously true because if the average bar today on a I-minute Eminichart is three ticks tall, then a one tick move is 33 percent ofthe size of the average bar, and that can represent a significantmove.
价格每一个点位变化，都会让不同时间框架下的价格行为有所变化，从单点图、一分钟图直到月线图，也会影响到所有形态的图表，不管它是以时间计，还是以单位成交量计、以单位成交笔数计、点线图，或者其它任何格式。很明显，一个单点位的变化通常在月线图上毫无意义（除非它是图表上的一个单点突破并立即折返），但它在较小的时间框架图表中就有用得多。比如在一个单支K图的平均长度为3个点的1分钟Emini图表上，一个点的移动就是一根K线上33%的距离，这就构成了一个明显的移动。
（评：AlBrooks这些话说得对吧？也许。这些话有用吗？鬼知道。他把这些东西扯在一起想表达什么观点？这也是写给有熟练经验的交易者和专业交易者的书？我忍！）
The most useful aspect of price action is watchingwhat happens after the market moves beyond (breaks out beyond)prior bars or trendlines on the chart. For example, if the marketgoes above a significant prior high and each subsequent bar forms alow that is above the prior bar's low and a high that is above theprior bar's high, then this price action indicates that the marketwill likely be higher on some subsequent bar, even if it pulls backfor a few bars near term. On the other hand, if the market breaksout to the upside, and then the next bar is a small inside bar (itshigh is not higher than that of the large breakout bar), and thenthe following bar has a low that is below this small bar, the oddsof a failed breakout and a reversal back down increaseconsiderably.
价格在突破之后如何行动，是价格行为最值得观测之处。这里说的突破，就是价格在图表中移动到了前面一根K线或者趋势线之上。例如，如果市价攀升到之前的一个明显的高点之上，而且随后的每一根K线的低点都比前一根的低点更高，它的高点也比前一根的高点更高，那么，这个价格行为就表示市场在之后的K线上十有八九会继续向上走，那怕过程中会向下回撤几个K线的空间。另一种情况，如果市场向上突破，但接下来的一根K线却是一个包蕴线（Inside Bar，它的高点比之前形成突破的那根K线的高点低），紧随其后的K线的低点位于这根小包蕴线下方，那么，突破失败的机会就大增，反转向下就可想而见了。
Over time, fundamentals controlthe price of a stock, and that price is set by institutionaltraders (like mutual funds, banks, brokerage houses, insurancecompanies, pension funds, hedge funds, and so on), who are by farthe biggest volume players. Price action is the movement that takesplace along the way as institutions probe for value. When they feelthat the price is too high, they will exit or even short, and whenthey feel it is too low (a good value), they will go long or takeprofits on their shorts. Although conspiracy theorists will neverbelieve it, institutions do not havesecret meetings to vote on whatthe price should be in an attempt to steal money from unsuspecting,well-intentioned individual traders. Their voting is essentiallyindependent and secret, and comes in the form of their buying andselling, but the results are displayed on price charts. In theshort run, an institution can manipulate the price of a stock,especially if it is thinly
traded. However, they wouldmake relatively much less money doing that compared to what theycould make in other forms of trading, making the concern ofmanipulation of negligible importance, especially in stocks andmarkets where huge volume is traded, like the Eminis, major stocks,debt instruments, and currencies.
放到一个够长的时间上看，股票的价格是被基本面因素所控制的，即时价格则是由机构交易者所决定（如年金管理基金、银行、经纪公司、保险公司、退休金管理基金、对冲基金、以及其它类似的大机构），他们可是大手笔！价格行动就是这些机构交易者的谋利行为所造成的价格移动。当他们觉得股票价格已经过高时，会卖掉手中持有的股票，甚至做空抛售。尽管阴谋论者不相信，机构交易者确实不曾秘会投票决定一支股票的价格该如何变化，以便他们从那些单纯善良的散户手里抢钱。他们的投票基本上是各干各的并一直进行，那就是通过他们的买入或卖出。投票的结果就是显示在价格图表上的那些东西。短时间而言，机构交易者可以操纵股票价格，尤其是在成交清淡的时候，但是，他们从这种操纵里赚到的钱，和他们可以从其它类型的交易中赚到的钱比较起来少得可怜。因此，尤其是在指数电子盘（Emini）、主要的股票、债券、货币这些成交量巨大的交易市场里，操纵这个因素几乎可以忽略不计。
Why does price move up onetick? It is because there is more volume being bid at the currentprice than being offered, and a number of those buyers are willingto pay even more than the current price if necessary. This issometimes described as the market having more buyers than sellers,or as the buyers being in control, or as buying pressure. Once allof those buy orders that can possibly be filled are filled at thecurrent price (the last price traded), the remaining buyers willhave to decide whether they are willing to buy at one tick higher.If they are, they will continue to bid at the higher price. Thishigher price will make all market participants reevaluate theirperspective on the market. If there continues to be more volumebeing bid than offered, price will continue to move up since thereare an insufficient number of contracts being offered by sellers atthe last price to fill the requests to buy by buyers. At somepoint, buyers will start offering some of their contracts as theytake partial profits. Also, sellers will perceive the current priceas a good value for a short and offer to sell more than buyers wantto buy. Once there are more contracts being offered by sellers(either buyers who are looking to cover some or all of their longcontracts or by new sellers who are attempting to short), all ofthe buy orders will be filled at the current price, but somesellers will be unable to find enough buyers. The bid will movedown a tick. If there are sellers willing to sell at this lowerprice, this will become the new last price.
为什么价格会向上移动一个点？因为在现价位置买盘比卖盘多，有一些买家愿意用比现价稍稍高出一点儿的价钱完成交易。这种状况有时也称作买家比卖家多，或者市场被买方主导，或者叫买方压力。一旦在现价上可能成交的全部买盘都成交了（现价成交），其它想买入但尚未成交的买家就不得不考虑是否愿意把出价提高一个点。如果他们愿意这样做，他们就会在高一点儿的那个价位出价。这个高出来一点的价格将让市场里的全体参与者重新考虑他们对市场的看法。如果买盘在高一点的价位上仍然比卖盘多，价格就会因为这种卖出不足而继续向上攀升。这种状况一直持续到某一个点上，之前进行买入目前已经有浮动利润的买家打算卖掉一部分仓位，让利润落袋为安，同时，卖方也觉得这个价格很让人满意，愿意在此卖出，他们的卖盘比买方想买的还要多，这时，所有的在现价上的买盘都能成交，卖盘却没能被完全消化，卖价就会向下移动一个点，如果卖家愿意以稍低的这个价格卖出，这个低一个点的价格就会成为最新价。
Since most markets are drivenby institutional orders, it is reasonable to wonder whether theinstitutions are basing their entries on price action, or whethertheir actions are causing the price action. The reality is thatinstitutions are not all watching AAPL or SPY tick by tick and thenstarting a buy program when they see a two-legged pullback on aI-minute chart. They have a huge number of orders to be filledduring the day and are working to fill them at the best price.Price action is just one of many considerations, and some firmswill rely more on it, and others will rely on it less or not atall. Many firms have mathematical models and programs thatdetermine when and how much to buy and sell, and all firms continueto receive new orders from clients all day long.
既然市场主要是由机构交易者的交易单来推动的，我们就有理由想知道这些机构是不是根据价格行为来决定他们的入场交易，或者说是他们的交易行为造成了价格行为。事实上，并不是所有的机构都在盯着AAPL或者SKY这样的股票价格的每一点跳动，然后在1分钟图表上看到一个二次回撤就下单买入，他们每天都有一大堆单子等着成交，忙着以最好的价格来搞定这些单子。价格行为只是他们考虑的众多因素之一，有些机构考虑得多一些，有些就考虑得少一些，甚至不操这份心。很多公司都有他们的数学模型和程序来决定什么时候买卖，买卖多少，所有的公司成长都不断地从客户那里接到要求买入或卖出的单子。
（评：AlBrooks有时说价格行为是价格的一切变化，有时说是机构交易者进行交易形成的，有时说机构按价格行为进行交易，有时又说有的机构完全不关心价格行为，可见，他的逻辑有点问题。出现这些问题，是因为他把价格行为、价格行为模式等不同的概念统统用PriceAction这个词组来表达，当然就越说越不清楚了。其实本没有这么麻烦，他只讲出价格行为是价格的一切运动就够了，之后的部分则是机构在交易过程中考虑不考虑价格行为模式，完全可以不在这里讲。另外，如果说价格行为是价格的一切变化，那就不应该再说价格行为模式是机构交易的交易行为造成，因为散户造成的价格变化同样是价格行为。我想AlBrooks的本意，是说价格行为模式是机构交易者交易行为自然形成的，但机构交易者并一定就在交易中关注这些模式，因为他们有其它的方法，价格行为模式是他们五花八门的方法落在市场上所形成的印迹。这样，整个逻辑就可打通了。另外，这本书的研究对象，其实是价格行为模式，而不是象AlBrooks的文字表面上那样在研究价格行为自身。好在定义这些玩意与交易关系不大，就不和他较真了。
由这几个段落也可看出，AlBrooks确实不善于从普遍的现象和细节中抽象出一般规律或基本描述，他想把一个东西讲完整，却总是只能说出一半，并说这一半就是全部。我想，他是从完整性的角度写这些东西，这些东西对老手没什么意义，因为老手们都明白这是怎么回事；新手们也不需要他写的这些东西，因为教科书上比他讲得更准确更详细。我也只是从完整发现的角度来翻译他的这些文字，但不可否认，我认为他讲的这些全是垃圾。）
The price action that traderssee during the day is the result of institutional activity and muchless the cause of the activity. When a profitable setup unfolds,there will be a confluence of unknowable influences taking placeduring the trade that results in the trade being profitable or aloser. The setup is the actual first phase of a move that isalready underway and a price action entry lets a trader just jumponto the wave early on. As more price action unfolds, more traderswill enter in the direction of the move, generating momentum on thecharts, causing additional traders to enter. Traders, includinginstitutions, place their bids and offers for every imaginablereason, and the reasons are largely irrelevant. However, one reasonthat is relevant, because it is evident to smart price actiontraders, is to benefit from trapped traders. If you know thatprotective stops are located at one tick below a bar and willresult in losses to traders who just bought, then you should getshort on a stop at that same price to make a profit off the trappedtraders as they are forced out.
交易者平时从图表上看到的价格行为，更多是机构交易者行动的结果而不是他们采取行动原因。当一个有利可图的进场模式呈现出来，就意味着交易过程中有不可知的有影响力的因素正在汇聚，最终导致交易成功或者失利。这个进场模式是正在酝酿的价格持续运动的第一部分，而价格行为形成的入场点让交易者及早投身于这个价格运动中来。随着进场模式的不断展开，越来越多的交易卷入到这个方向的运动中，形成图表上的动能，并吸引更多交易者进入。交易者，包括那些机构交易者，因为各种各样的原因进场交易，这些原因差不多是互不相关的。但总有一个理由是相同的，那就是聪明的价格行为交易者要从那些被套住的交易者身上刮钱。如果你知道那些保护性止损总是放在一根K线下方一个点位的地方，一旦它被激发，就会逼刚刚进场买入的人割肉离场，你就会在那个点位上做空，从那些被套的交易者割肉离场的行动里赚钱。
Since institutional activity controls the move andtheir volume is so huge and they place most of their trades withthe intention of holding them for hours to months, most will not belooking to scalp and instead they will defend their original entry.If Vanguard or Fidelity have to buy stock for one of their mutualfunds, their clients will want the fund to own stock at the end ofthe day. Clients do not buy mutual funds with the expectation thatthe funds will day trade and end up in all cash by the close. Thefunds have to own stock, which means they have to buy and hold, notbuy and scalp. For example, after their initial buy, they willlikely have much more to buy and will use any small pullback to addon. If there is none, they will continue to buy as the marketrises.
Some beginner traders wonder who is buying as themarket is going straight up and also wonder why anyone would buy atthe market instead of waiting for a pullback. The answer is simple.It is institutions working to fill all of their orders at the bestpossible price, and they will buy in many pieces as the marketcontinues up. A lot of this trading is being done by institutionalcomputer programs, and it will end after the programs are complete.If a trade fails, it is far more likely the result of the tradermisreading the price action than it is of an institution changingits mind or taking a couple ticks of profit within minutes ofinitiating a program.
机构交易者的行为主导着市场，他们的交易量巨大，他们下单入场并愿意持仓几个小时甚至几个月，基本上不会只想做刮头皮交易，他们更愿意保护他们的初始仓位。试想，Vanguard或者Fidelity这样的市场大鳄为他们的互助基金买入股票时，他们的客户一定会希望一天的交易结果后继续持有他们的仓位。客户们才不愿意买入那些在市场里进行日内交易并随时会在一次崩溃行情中垮掉的机构的所发行的基金呢。基金不得不持有股票，这意味着他们必须买入并持有，而不是刮个头皮就完。比如，他们一旦开始买入，就会利用回撤的机会买入更多，如果没有回撤，就在市场继续上行的过程中持续买入。
有些新手搞不懂当市场快速上升时是谁在持续买入，那些人为什么不等市场回撤时再买入。答案很简单，那是机构交易者为使他们的订单在可能成交的价格上得以完成而持续不断地买入，他们会市场上升过程中的任何一个价格上买入。大部分这样的交易都是由机构交易者的交易程序自动进行，一直到程序要求的订单量全部完成才会停止。如果一次交易最终以失败告终，十有八九是这个机构交易者误读了市场的价格行为，而不是它临时改变了想法或者为了点蝇头小利而重新调整他们的程序。
The only importance of realizing that institutionsare responsible for price action is that it makes placing tradesbased on price action more reliable. Most institutions are notgoing to be day trading in and out, making the market reverse afterevery one of your entries. Your price action entry is just apiggyback trade on their activity, but, unlike them, you arescalping all or part of your trade.
明白是机构交易者对价格行为负责很重要，它会让你知道按照价格行为来设定止损更可靠一些。大部分机构交易者是不做日内交易的，不会在你每次入场后都反转一下干掉你。你按价格行为设定的止损对他们而言，不过象猪身上的虱子一样无足轻重。和他们不一样，你却是一直在刮头皮。
（评：这几段，当成幼儿经济学教科书倒是不错，虽然表达得仍然不严谨。AlBrooks有点搞不懂给新手的书和给老手的书有什么不一样，也许，他觉得自己很老而其它人都太嫩。但从这些文字看来，他大概读过一些大学经济系一年级上半年的书，而且还没读完。）
There are some firms that day trade substantialvolume. However, for their trades to be profitable the market hasto move many ticks in their direction, and a price action traderwill see the earliest parts of the move, allowing her to get inearly and be confident that the odds of a successful scalp arehigh. That firm cannot have the market go 15 ticks against them ifthey are trying to scalp 4 or 8 ticks. As such, they will enteronly when they feel that the risk of an adverse move is small. Ifyou read their activity on the charts, you should likewise beconfident in your trade, but always have a stop in the market incase your read is wrong.
有些公司也做不少日内交易。但是，要让他们的交易获利，市场就必须在他们希望的方向上跑不少点数才行。一个价格行为交易者如能及早发现价格的这种运动，就可以跳上去搭个便车，并且对刮头皮可以刮出点油来充满信心。这些公司如果打算刮4到8个点的油水，他们就不可能眼看着市场向相反的方向移动15个点而无动于衷。因此，他们只会在感到市场反向移动的风险非常小时才会出手。如果你在图表上看到了他们活动的迹象，你对你的交易的信心就应该和他们差不多。但永远要设好止损，避免你误读了他们的行为。
Also, since often the entry bar extreme is testedto the tick and the stops are not run, there must be institutionalsize volume protecting the stops, and they are doing so based onprice action. In the 5-minute Emini, there are certain price actionevents that change the perspective of smart traders. For example,if a High 2 long pullback fails, smart traders will assume that themarket will likely have two more legs down. If you are aninstitutional trader and you bought that High 2, you do not want itto fail, and you will buy more all the way down to one tick abovethat key protective stop price. That institution is using priceaction to support their long.
另外，如果一个入场信号所在K线的端点接近测试止损位，但止损未被激发，那一定是有机构的大量订单在保护着那个止损位置。他们是依据价格行为的要求这样做的。在指数电子盘（Emini）的5分钟图表上，当几种特定的价格行为模式出现时，机敏的交易者会重新审视他对市场的看法。比如，如果一个第二个较高的高点（H2）多头回撤失败了，机敏的交易者就会假设市场将再下探两次。如果你是一个机构交易者，你在H2的位置买入，你不希望它最终失败，你就会在关键止损位之上一个点位的位置不断买入。机构交易者就是这样利用价格行为来保护他们的多头仓位。
The big legs are essentially unstoppable, but thesmall price action is fine-tuned by some institutional traders whoare watching every tick. Sometimes when there is a 5-tick longfailure setting up and the price just keeps hitting 5 ticks but not6 where you can scalp 4 ticks out of your long, there will suddenlybe a trade of 250 Emini contracts, and the price does not tickdown. In general, anything over 100 contracts should be consideredinstitutional in today's Emini market. Even if it is just a largeindividual trader, he likely has the insight of an institution, andsince he is trading institutional volume, he is indistinguishablefrom an institution. Since the price is still hanging at 5 ticks,almost certainly that 250 lot order was an institutional buy. Thisis because if institutions were selling in a market filled withnervous longs, the market would fall quickly. When the institutionsstart buying when the market is up 5 ticks, they expect it to gomore than just 1 tick higher and usually within a minute or so theprice will surge through 6 ticks and swing up for at least manymore. The institutions were buying at the high, which means that they thinkthe market will go higher and they will likely buy more as it goesup. Also, since 4-tick scalps work so often, it is likely thatthere is institutional scalping that exerts a great influence overmost scalps during the day.
（评：AlBrooks的这一段文字，虽然想象的成分居多，但其假设还是蛮合理的。尤其关于价格钉在5点高位上说明机构是在做多而不是在做空的分析，颇值得玩味，合情合理。这些文字，才是Al的可爱且有益之处。）
Traders pay close attention to the seconds beforekey time frames close, especially 3-, 5-, 15-, and 60-minute bars.This is also true on key volumes for volume bar charts. Forexample, if many traders follow the 10,000 shares per bar chart forthe Ten Year Note futures contract, then when the bar is about toclose (it closes on the first trade of any size that results in atleast 10,000 shares traded since the start of the bar, so the baris rarely ever exactly 10,000 shares), there may be a flurry ofactivity to influence the final appearance of the bar. One sidemight want to demonstrate a willingness to make the bar appear morebullish or bearish. In simplest terms, a strong bull trend barmeans that the bulls owned the bar. It is very common in strongtrends for a reversal bar to totally reverse its appearance in thefinal few seconds before a 5-minute bar closes. For example, in astrong bear, there might be a High 2 long setting up with a verystrong bull reversal bar. Then, with 5 seconds remaining before thebar closes, the price plummets, and the bar closes on its low,trapping lots of front running longs who expected a bull trendreversal bar. When trading Countertrend against a strong trend, itis imperative to wait for the signal bar to close before you placeyour order, and then only enter on a stop at 1 tick beyond the barin the direction of your trade (if you are buying, buy at 1 tickabove the high of the prior bar on a stop).
交易者应该对一些关键时间框架即将收盘前的最后几秒钟特别关注，特别是3分钟图、5分钟图、15分钟图和小时图，对关键的以交易量为框架的交易量图表也是如此。举例来说，如果很多交易者跟踪一张每根K线以10000口为标准的10年期债券期货图表，在一根K线就要完成时（这种图表在一笔交易使从这根K线内所累积的交易量不少于10000股时收盘，因此，每一根K线内包含的交易量极少是恰好10000股），这根K线结束时就会发生很大的变化。其中的一方会尽量让这根K线显得更牛气或更熊气一些，最简单的说法就是，一根强劲的多头趋势的K线意味着多头控制了这根K线。经常可以看到，在5分钟图表上，一个强劲的趋势运动中出现的反转K线在这5分钟的最后几秒钟突然掉过头去，收成一根顺势K线。例如，在一下强烈的下行趋势中，可能有一个2次回撤的进场模式正在形成，即将结束的这支K线是一根强劲的阳线，构成了一根空翻多的反转K线。然而，就在这支K线只差5秒钟就要收盘时，价格突然直线下跌，使得这根K线最终收在最低点上，把在这之前看起来很牛气时进场交易的多头套住一大堆，他们本来还以为这会收束成一根多头反转形态K线呢。对一个强烈的趋势进行反转交易时，下单之前，等待有反转意味的K线完全走完非常重要，而且只应在这根线之上1个点的地方进行朝向你期待方向的突破交易（如果你做多，就在这根K线最高点上方1个点的位置挂上到达成交买入单）。
（评：AlBrooks在这里讲价格在最后几秒钟的表现非常重要，然后举例子，再往后，该是说如何对待最后几秒钟了吧？可他却只是讲了个如何操作强烈下行趋势的反转就完事了。显然，这不像是一个完整的段落。但我也不能替他补写一段，以完成这段内容。凑合吧。好在大家还能猜明白他到底想说什么，不就是想说要等一根柱图走完才可判断它的性质吗？
但是，在这之前，Al Brooks又强调过A close is close,意思是说等到收盘黄瓜菜都凉了。这两者不是很矛盾吗？再深入想一下，才会明白Al Brooks是在说两个东西。要等到收盘，是对信号的态度，收了盘的K线才构成信号；不要等收盘，是指信号出现之后应如何反应，见信号就要冲进去，不要拖沓错过了进场的机会。类似这样的地方，需要读者自己琢磨，别指望这个大舌头给你讲明白。）
What is the best way to learn how to read priceaction? It is to print out charts and then look for everyprofitable trade. If you are a scalper looking for 50 cents in AAPLor $2 in GOOG on the 5-minute chart, then find every move duringthe day where that amount of profit was possible. After severalweeks, you will begin to see a few patterns that would allow you tomake those trades while risking about the same amount. If the riskis the same as the reward, you have to win much more than 50percent of the time to make the trade worthwhile. However, lots ofpatterns have a 70 percent or better success rate, and many tradesallow you to move up your stop from below the signal bar extreme tobelow the entry bar extreme while waiting for your profit target tobe reached, reducing your risk. Also, you should be trying to entertrades that have a good chance of running well past your profittarget, and you should therefore only take partial profits. Infact, initially you should only focus on those entries. Move yourstop to breakeven and then let the remainder run. You will likelyhave at least a couple of trades each week that run to four or moretimes your initial target before setting up a reverse entrypattern.
学习如何阅读价格行为的最佳方法是什么？那就是把图表打印出来，在上面寻找每一个可能的交易机会。如果你是个头皮佬，想在AAPL的5分钟图表上刮个50美分的头皮，或者在GOOG（Google）5分钟图表上刮它2美元，那就在图表上找出每一个可能达成这种交易的价格变化。这样观察上几周，你就会看到有几个形态总能让你玩一下，所冒的风险和你想赚的钱也相当。如果风险和目标中的回报一样多，你的胜率就必须高于50%，才能让交易有钱可赚值得玩。不过，大部分形态的成功率都达到70%甚至更高，而且很多交易商允许你在达到获利目标之前把止损从作为信号的那根K线下边移动到入场的那根下边，这就减少了你的风险。另外，你也应该尽量找那些价格跑得比你的获利目标还远的机会进行交易，价格到达获利目标时，你就平掉一部分仓位把利润装进口袋。事实上，从一开始你就应该只关注进场。平掉一部分仓位之后，把你的止损调整到刚才的突破位置，让剩下的那些仓位随便漂吧。这样，每一周你都可以抓住一大把这样的交易，价格跑到了你的获利目标4倍甚至更远的地方，直到一个相反方向的进场模式出现。
（评：这是一个学习进场和持仓的不错的办法。只有在讲到具体的交易时，AlBrooks的价值才会显然出来。他不愧是一个交易高手。他这里讲的学习方法，是新手学习的好办法；他这里讲的进场后的处理，虽然老手也都懂，但不是每个人都可以做到。）
Fibonacci retracements and extensions are a partof price action, but since most are just approximations and mostfail, do not use them for trading. If one is good, it will beassociated with a chart pattern that is reliable and tradable onits own, independent of the Fibonacci measurement or anyindicators. Elliott Wave Theory is also a type of price actionanalysis, but for most traders it is not tradable. The waves areusually not clear until many, many bars after the ideal entrypoint, and with so many opposite interpretations at every instant,it requires far too much thought and uncertainty for mostactive day traders.
费波纳齐回撤和扩展是价格行为的一部分，但是由于这种回撤或扩展只是接近，而且很多会以失败告终，所以不要把它用到交易中来。如果其中的一次是成功的，它也总是伴有一个可靠的、值得交易的不错的图表形态，这个形态与费波纳齐度量或其它指标没什么关系。艾略特的波浪理论也是一种价格行为分析，但对大部分交易者而言，它是没办法用到交易中的，总是在明显的理想的进场点之后过了很多根K线，浪还不那么明确，而且过程中总会有很多相反的解读，它需要太多思考，对大部活跃的日内交易而言都不合适。
Should you be concerned that making theinformation in this book available will create lots of great priceaction traders, all doing the same thing at the same time, therebyremoving the late entrants needed to drive the market to your pricetarget? No, because the institutions control the market, and theyalready have the smartest traders in the world, and those tradersalready know everything in this book, at least intuitively. Thereason that the patterns that we all see unfold as they do isbecause that is the appearance that occurs in an efficient marketwith countless traders placing orders for thousands of differentreasons, but with the controlling volume being traded based onsound logic. That is just what it looks like, and it has forever.The same patterns unfold on all time frames in all markets aroundthe world and it would simply be impossible for all of it to bemanipulated instantaneously on so many different levels.
你是不是有点担心这本书所提供的信息会培养出一大批优秀的价格行为交易者，他们都在同一时刻进行同样的交易，以至于市场失去足够的推动力，让价格跑不到进来得比较晚的你所设定的目标获利位置呢？不用操这个心，因为是机构交易者控制着市场，他们已经拥有世界上最聪明的交易者，那些交易者也已经知道这本书里的一切，至少直觉上已经知道。我们都看得到的这些形态之所以可以出现，就是因为它们是效率市场数不清的交易者因为各种各样的原因下单交易所形成的，市场主导力量所进行的交易，是建立在清晰的逻辑之上。市场看起来是这个样子，它也会一直这样下去。同样的形态在不同时间框架的图表上出现，在全世界不同的市场里出现，它不可能那么简单地突然在那么多层面上被操纵。
（评：翻这一段时，我差一点就笑出来了。AlBrooks显然不是真的认为会有读者担心交易世界既有的格局会被认为他这书的出现打破，他不过是想吹嘘一下他的方法多么有效而已。如果真的认为有人会存在这样的担心，只能说是他自己太天真了。
这里也有一个逻辑上的问题。在此之前，他认为机构交易的行为才是价格行为的基础，很多机构会按照价格行为的原则进行交易，使得阅读价格行为成为有效的交易决策方式。在这里，他似乎又想说价格行为交易主要是由散户来介入的，这中间显然有不协调的地方。但这不是个问题，因为这无关对价格行为的理解，只是Al Brooks的一次低水准的吹牛罢了。）
If everyone suddenly became a price actionscalper, the smaller patterns might change a little for a while,but over time, the efficient market will win out, and the votes byall traders will get distilled into standard price action patternsbecause that is the inescapable result of countless people behavinglogically. Also, the reality is that it is very difficult to trade,and although basing trades on price action is a sound approach, itis still very difficult to do real time. There just won't be enoughtraders doing it well enough, all at the same time, to have anysignificant influence over time on the patterns. Just look atEdwards and Magee. The best traders in the world have been usingthose ideas for decades and they continue to work, again for thesame reason . . . charts look they way they do because that is theunchangeable fingerprint of an efficient market filled with a hugenumber of smart people using a huge number of approaches and timeframes, all trying to make the most money that they can.
如果所有的交易者都一下子变成了以价格行为当交易基础的头皮佬，那些小的图形也许会在短时间内发生变化，但随着时间推移，效率市场最终会赢，全部交易者的共同参与，最后会把图形弄回到标准价格行为图形上，因为它是所有人都以共同的逻辑进行操作的必然结果。同时，在现实世界里，交易实在是太难了，尽管以价格行为为基础进行交易是理性的办法，在现实中它仍然非常困难。在同一时间，不可能有那么多优秀的交易者同时做得足够好而对形态产生那怕是轻微的影响。你只要看看爱德华特和梅吉，这个世界上最优秀的交易者使用他们的方法交易了几十年了，他们的方法却依然有效。基于同样的原因。。。。。图表之所以呈现出它应有的样子，是因为它是由数不清的聪明人用数不清的方法在不同的时间框架下进行交易拚命赚钱所形成的效率市场的指纹，放心吧，没什么可以改变它。
（评：这里很好玩，AlBrooks在谈了爱德华特和梅吉这两位技术分析的大师之后本想也提一下自己，却生生地用一个省略号把想说的话给吞了回去。从这点儿上说，他还是有点自知之明的。我在它行文的最后加了一句话，以使这个段落更完整。毕竟这是一个小节的结束，总不能象之前的段落那样总是说了半句话就结束吧。
关于效率市场的部分，AlBrooks的说法还是可以接受的。效率市场的特点就是会让参与者的行为方式最优化，最后以至于同一化。这就是为什么Windows不是最优秀的操作系统却完成了一统天下的霸业，因为当你的软件不能在这个平台上运行时，你就不可能让它被人广泛应用，那些要使用各种各样软件的人不可能为了使用你的这一个软件而专门再使用个新平台，这就限制了非Windows平台的软件的发展，而大家被迫把软件放在Windows平台上，则更进一步的提高了它的排它性。这种循环使业界因为追求效率而使得标准越来越统一。类似的情况，在效率市场中非常普通，这是人性使然，也是人性的悲哀，因为它让个性越来越成为稀缺之物。好在以人的行为为基础的这些东西不会在一瞬间消失，我们也不必担心一种交易方法一统天下。所以，还是好好的经营自己的方法，并广泛学习兼收并蓄，让自己的交易技能日日精进吧。）
（课后总结：这一部分是第一章的第一部分，相当于第一章的总论，AlBrooks谈了他对价格行为的定义和认识。很显然，进行这种理论性归纳总结不是他的长项，以至于很多地方谈得似是而非。但也要承认，他的一些观点也是可取的，只是他不善于也不应该在这种偏理论化的地方多着墨，直接讲他的技术发现的东西，才是比较合适的。而且，这里讲到的知识，大部分都是老手都知道新手将来总会知道的，在这种地方扯那么多，何必呢？而且，Al Brooks一旦谈起理论性的东西来，就是越扯越乱而不是越说越清楚，这也算是比较好玩的地方吧。）
（一点技术上的说明：翻译涉及到“Bar”这个词汇的地方越来越多，如何最恰当翻译它，成了一个不可回避的问题。为了翻译方便，也为了读得清楚，我决定不管K线本是专指蜡烛图这个词源问题了，否则，有些地方就很难翻。比如，Trend Bar，翻成“趋势K线”就好懂，表示与趋势一致并可揭示趋势方向的柱状图，如果翻成“趋势柱形图”就很别扭，翻成“趋势线”，又与Trendline冲突，翻成趋势条也别扭。同样的还有Reversal Bar,翻成“反转K线”就很好懂，Entry Bar,翻成“进场K线”也很明白。所以，以后就这么定了，全翻成K线，需要特指柱形图或蜡烛图时再使用“柱形图”和“蜡烛图”这样的字眼。之前的译文，我已经统一修改，以使前后一致。）
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