波动率--译文(2010-11-21 15:51:52)
分类：股票
"TheTicker and Investment Digest"
(laterbecame the Wall Street Journal)
《行情与投资文摘》
（后来更名为《华尔街日报》
December of 1909
1909年12月
WilliamD. Gann
威廉姆 D 江恩
An Operator Whose Science and Ability Place
Him in the Front Rank
一位凭自己的科学与能力跻身前列的操作者
His Remarkable Predictions and Trading Records
他卓越的预测与交易记录
Sometime ago the attention of this magazine was attractedby certain long pull Stock Market predictions which were being made by WilliamD. Gann. In a large number of cases Mr. Gann gave us, in advance, the exactpoints at which certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with pricesclose to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched.
某些日子以前，这份杂志的注意力，被一位叫威廉姆 D 江恩的人写的充满魅力的股市预测所吸引了。 江恩先生在相当多的案例里，提前给出了某中股票或期货应该卖出的精确点位，和以及在目前点位上方不可能被触及到的价格。
For instance, when the New York Central was 131 hepredicted that it would sell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his figuresprove to be accurate, and so different did his work appear from that of anyexpert whose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr. Gannand his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as the particular usewhich he was making of them in the market.
比如说，当纽约中心在131元的时候，他预测说股票先涨到145，然后跌到129。他说的数字，后来被反复证实确实精确如斯，而其方法又与所有已成名的专家看起来这么不同，所以我们着手去调查江恩先生和他的预测方法，以及他是怎么在市场中具体运用的。
The results of this investigation are remarkable in manyways.
这次的调查，在很多方面显得非比寻常。
It appears to be a fact Mr. W, D. Gann has developed anentirely new idea as to the principles governing stock market movements. Hebases his operations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since theworld began, have _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">看起来比较明确的是，江恩先生在有关于决定股市运行的原则方面，发展了一整套思想。支配他的操作是建立在特定的自然规则上的，这些规则自世界开始时就存在，只是在近些年来受人类意愿的支配并已经被列入所谓现代发现的名单里。我们询问了江恩先生有关他工作的概要，并对他的一些不同寻常的证明和因此发展来的结论提供保证。
We submit this in full recognition of the fact that inWall Street a man with a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions andencourages a scientific view of the Proposition, is not usually welcomed by themajority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. Theseactivities the said majority abhors.
我们在发表这篇文章时，充分了解：在华尔街如果一个人有新的想法，并且这个想法违犯现有的传统，并鼓励在定理方面有科学的观点的时候，这个人通常是不被主流所欢迎的，因为他在刺激着新想法和新研究。这些活动上述的主流可是很厌恶的。
W. D. Gann's description of his experience and methods isgiven herewith. It should be read with recognition of the established fact thatMr. Gann's predictions have proved correct in a large majority of instances.
接下来就是江恩先生有关经历和方法的描述。提示，在阅读之前，要非常明确一个确定的事实是：江恩先生的预测在非常多的场合证明是正确的。
"For the past ten years I have devoted my entiretime and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lostthousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to thenovice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of thesubject."
在过去的10年里，我把我全部的时间和精力献给了投机市场。和很多其他人一样，我损失了成千上万的金钱，经历了一个新手在没有作好知识准备前就入市操作的所有的起起伏伏。
"I soon began to realize that all successful men,whether Lawyers, Doctors or Scientists, devoted years of time to the study andinvestigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting tomake any money out of it."
我很快认识到所有成功的人，不论是律师、医生还是科学家，在试图挣到钱之前，都在他们的特殊领域花费了好多年的时间来研究和调查。
"Being in the Brokerage business myself and handlinglarge accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man forstudying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. Ifound that over ninety percent of the traders who go into the market withoutknowledge or study usually lose in the end."
因为我自己亲自担任经纪，操作大额的数目，所以我有一般人没有的机会，去研究在别人投机市场上的成功和失败的原由。我发现，超过90%的投资者，如果没有装备好知识就入市，最后都以失败告终。
"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude thatnatural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote tenyears of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculativemarkets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitableprofession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the knownsciences, I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at which stocks orcommodities should rise and fall within a given time."
很快，我开始注意到股票和期货里面的涨跌在周期性地发生。这引导我得出结论：自然规律是市场运行的基础。我接着决定花10年的时间去研究贴合投机市场自然规律，并把我最好的经历投入到把投机变成一项获利丰厚的事业。在对已知的科学进行竭尽全力的调查研究后，我发现波动法则能让我确定每支股票和期货在一个约定时间内要升或跌的精确点位。
The working out of this law determines the causeand predicts the effect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses. "It is impossible here to give an adequate idea ofthe law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However, the layman may beable to grasp some of the principles when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamental law upon whichwireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without theexistence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible."
在这个法则的研究确定了成因，并在华尔街意识到之前的很久就预测了结果。大多数的投机者都可以证明，只看结果不顾成因，才导致了他们的亏损。“现在没法对我在市场上使用的波动法则作出一个适当的解释。但外行人也可以在我解释波动法则是无线电报，无线电话和留声机的基本原理的时候，能把握一些规则。如果没有这个法则，上面的发明根本不可能出现。
"In order to test the efficiency of my idea I havenot _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">为了验证我的想法是否有效，我不仅花费了多年的时间在一般方法上辛苦工作，而且还在纽约大图书馆和伦敦的大英博物馆流连了9个月，回顾了前推到1820年以来的股票交易记录。我偶然的机会检验了JAY GOULD，DANIEL DREW，COMMODORE VANDERBILT以及从那时到现在之间所有其他重要操盘手的操作方法。我也检验了从E H HARRIMAN时代前和后的联合太平洋的每张报价单。HARRIMAN先生是里面最精妙的。数据显示，不论是有意还是无意，HARRIMAN先生是严格按照自然法则来进行操作的。
"In going over the history of markets and the greatmass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variationsin the value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic law which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">Mr. Henry Hall in his recent book devoted much space to"Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which he found recurring atregular intervals of time. The law(law of vibration) which I have applied will not _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">在回顾了市场的历史以及大量相关数据的过程，很快能清晰地看到，某些法则确实在决定着股票价值的调整和变化，也确实能看到存在着一个周期性的或循环法则在支持着这些运动。观察显示，通常密集交易的后面，伴随着不活跃时期。HENRY HALL 在他最近的新书里用了大量的篇幅来描述给“繁荣与萧条的循环”，他发现在固定的时间间隔上反复交替。而我此处要使用的法则（波动法则）不仅是长期的循环或摆动，而且在日交易甚至小时的股票变化中同样适用。通过了解每支具体股票的精确波动，我能够确定在哪个点位得到支撑，在哪个点位将遇到强大阻力。
"Those in close touch with the market have noticedthe phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transaction eing made in it; at other times this same stock will become practicallystationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the law of vibration governs and controls these conditions(cause). I have also found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">那些密切关注市场的人会注意到潮起潮落的现象，或股票价格的上涨或下跌。在有些时候，一支股票会变得十分活跃，大量交易成交在这个时期；而在其他时候，同样的一支股票却变的相当稳定而不活跃，只有很小的买卖量。我发现是波动法则在主导控制着这些情况（成因）。我还发现这个法则的某些特定时期主导着这支股票上升，而一个完全不同的法则影响着股票的下跌。
"While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks whichmade their high prices in August were declining, United States Steel Common wassteadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work, sending a particularstock _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">当联合太平洋公司和其他在8月创出新高的铁路股的股票下跌时，美国钢铁通用公司的股票正稳步上扬。波动法则发挥作用了，即在其他股票趋势向下时，某只股票走出独立上升行情。
"I have found that in the stock itself exists itsharmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it.The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in themajority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions."
我发现了股票内部存在着和它的主导力量和谐或不和谐的关系。通过我的方法我可以确定每支股票的波动，同样，把某些时间因素考虑在内的话，我可以，在大多数情况下，精确地说出这些股票在特定情况下如何表现。
"The power to determine the trend ofthe market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individualstock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms andmolecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental law of vibration. Scienceteaches that 'an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic orrhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returnsagain in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as theadvancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of theelements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises." "From my extensiveinvestigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">这个确定市场趋势的能力，源自于我对每支特定股票特点的了解，和对在特定的波动率下的一组不同股票的认识。股票象电子，原子和分子，它们按照对基本波动法则的响应，保持第着他们独立的个性。科学说明，第一波的运动，都会变成一个周期性的韵律性的运动，就象钟垂在周而复始的摆动，就象月亮在它的轨道上反复，就象来年带来春天的玫瑰，就象当原则重量增加时元素性质周期行的再现。通过我大量的调查、研究和试验，我发现不仅各种各样的股票在波动，而且控制它们的主导力量，也是在波动的状态中。
These vibratory forces can _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">这些波动的力量，只能通过它们推动股票的运动和股票的价格，得以知晓。既然市场的运动和大的摆动都是周期性的，它们的运动当然是和周期法则相一致。
( law of vibration is cause and periodic law is effect)
波动法则是因，周期法则是果。
"Science has laid down the principle that theproperties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight. Afamous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the conviction thatdiversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most intimatelyassociated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixedaccidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes anddevelopments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd."
科学已经制定法则：每种因素的性质，是它原子重量的周期性的函数。一个著名的科学家说过，我们深信，在不同领域王国的物种的多样性，其实都有着紧密的数理联系。这些数字不是随机地混杂，而是受特定周期性的影响。这种（物种间的）变化和进化非常常见，甚至有些奇特。
Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">因此，我确信物种的不同纲目，不论是自然界的，还是股票市场，都一定受到因果关系与和谐关系的普适规则的主导。凡果必有因。“如我我们希望避免投机的失败，我们必须探讨成因。万物之存在都建立在比例与完美关系上。自然界没有偶然，因为最高秩序的数学法则蕴藏在万事万物的基础之中。
"Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">波动是基础： 没有一样东西是例外。它是普遍适用的，因此这个星球上的物种的各个纲目全部适用。
Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration.Stocks, like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they arecontrolled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, whichprinciple explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it isabsolutely necessary to follow natural law. 按照波动法则，股票市场上的每支股票都有它自己鲜明的活动范围，比如： 力度、成交量和方向等；它的演变的基本性质是由它自己的波动率来表明的。股票，和原子一样，也是整个能量的核心，因此，它们受数学控制。股票产生它们自己的活动和力量范围：吸引和排斥的力量。这个法则解释了为什么某些股票有时引领整个股市，而在其他时候则归于死寂。因此，要想科学投机，绝对有必要遵循自然法则。
"After years of patient study I have proven to myentire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration (law) explains every possible phase and condition of the market." In order to substantiate Mr. W. D. Gann's claims as towhat he has been able to do under his method, we called upon Mr. William E.Gilley, an Inspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr. Gilley iswell known in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock marketmovements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examined every pieceof market literature that has been issued & procurable in Wall Street. Itwas he who encouraged Mr. Gann to study the scientific and mathematicalpossibilities of the subject. When asked what had been the most impressive ofMr. Gann's work and predictions, he replied as follows :
经过数年耐心研究，我已完全满意地自我证明和对外证明，波动（法则）可以解释市场的所有可能出现的阶段和情况。为了证实江恩先生的声明，以及他的方法如何使用，我们邀请了纽约市BEAVER街16号进口检查员的WILLIAM E GILLEY先生，他在商业区里广为人知。他自己也研究股票波动大约有25年了，在此期间他检验了在华尔街发行的所有能找到股票市场刊物。正是他鼓励江恩先生开始从事这个学科的科学和数学研究。当问到对江恩先生的工作和预测印象最深的是什么时，他做了如下回答：
"It is very difficult for me to remember all thepredictions and operations of W. D. Gann which may be classed as phenomenal,but the following are a few. "In 1908 when the Union Pacific was 168-1/8,he told me it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it shortall the way down to 152-5/8, covering _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">我很难记住江恩作的所有的预测和具体操作，称之为惊人好象也不过分了，下面的例子有好多： 1908年联合太平洋的股价是168又1/8，他告诉我说它不可能碰到169，除非是先有个向下突破； 然后我们一路卖空到152又5/8，在低点处平仓，然后在反弹中又进场买多，在一个18点的市场波动中，很稳当地赚到了23个点的赢利。
"He came to me when United States Steel was sellingaround 50, and said, "This steel will run up to 58 but it will not sell at59. From there it should break 16 points." We sold it short around 58 witha stop at 59. The highest it went was 58. From there it declined to 41-17points."
在美国钢铁卖价在50附近的时候，他过来跟我说，“钢铁要涨到58，但不会到59。然后要下跌16点。“我们在58元处卖空，止损定在59元。实际最高点位在58，然后下降了17点到41元。
"At another time, wheat was selling at about 89¢.Gann predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35. We bought it and madelarge profits _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">另有一次，小麦在89分附近。江恩预测说5月和约会到1。35元。我们买入，在上升过程中大获其利。确实到达了1。35元。
"When Union Pacific was 172, he said it would go to184-7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had a good break. It went to 184-7/8and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it short repeatedly, witha stop at 185, and were never caught. It eventually came back to 17."
当联合太平洋到172的时候，江恩说它会到184又7/8，但在一个调整前，不会再升哪怕一个1/8了。它到了184又7/8以后下来了8、9次。我们反复卖空，止损定在185元，从没用着过。它最终回到了17（？应该是170？怀疑排版错误少了一位数）
"Mr. Gann's calculations are based _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">江恩的计算是建立在自然法则基础之上的。我密切跟踪江恩的工作有几年之久。我知道和对主导股票市场运动的基本法则掌握很深，我觉得，在当前时代没有人能够复制他的理念和方法。
"Early this year, he figured that the top of theadvance would fall _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">今年早些时候，他指出，目前正在上升的波浪将在8月的某一天到达顶部，那时候道琼斯指数要到达的点位也计算出来了。市场果然在那天到达最高点，点位差不超过千分之四。
"You and W D Gann must have cleaned up considerablemoney _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">“那你和江恩先生一定在这些操作里大赚了一笔”
"Yes, we have made a great deal of money. Gann hastaken half-million dollars out of the market in the past few years. I _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">是的。是赚了不少钱。江恩在过去的这些年里从股市里赚了有50万。有一次我看见他带着130元入市，不到1个月滚动到超过12000。江恩比我见过的其他任何人聚财的速度都要快。
"One of the most astonishing calculations made byMr. Gann was during last summer [1909] when he predicted that September Wheatwould sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the endof the month of September. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">江恩的最令人匪夷所思的计算发生在去年夏天（1909）。当时他预测说9月小麦会达到1。2元。这意味着它必须在9月的收盘前达到那个数字。在12点钟，芝加哥时间，9月30日（最后一个交易日）合约还是低于1。08元，看起来他的预测是不大有可能达成了。江恩说，如果在收盘时不能达到1。2元，说明我在整体计算的方法上一定有地方出错了。我不管现在是什么价格，它一定会到达（1。2元）的。接下来的事大家都知道了，9月小麦合约惊动全国地到达了1。2元，在最后的一小时交易中正好落在那个价格上收盘。
So much for what W D Gann has said and done as evidencedby himself & others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place beforeour representative :
江恩由他自己证明的和别人证明的他说过的、做过的例子太多了。现在当着我们的代表的面看又有了什么证明。
During the month of October, 1909, in twenty-five marketdays, W D Gann made, in the presence of our representative, two hundred andeighty-six transactions in various stocks, _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">在1909年10月，25个交易日里，江恩，在我们代表在场的情况下，在不同股票上共实施了286次操作，有的做长，有的做短。264次赢利，22次亏损。
The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times,so that at the end of the month he had _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">他用来操盘的资金增加了10倍，在月末的时候的赢利是1000%。
In our presence Mr. William D. Gann sold Steel commonshort at 94-7/8, saying that it would not go to 95. It did not.
在我们在场的情况下，江恩在94又7/8元卖出通用钢铁，说它不会到达95元。确实如此。
On a drive which occurred during the week ending October29, Mr. Gann bought U.S. Steel common stock at 86-1/4, saying that it would notgo to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/3.
在10月29日结束的那个周里发生的一次上升浪中，江恩先生在86又1/4元买入美国通用钢铁的股票，说它不会回扯到86元。最低的售价是86又1/3。
We have seen gann give in _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">我们看到江恩在一天的时间里，在同一只股票上进行了16次的成功操作。8次事后证明是卖在顶部或买在底部，8次是转折点。以上陈述我们完全可以证实。
Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing,are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.
这样的表现，和前面说过的情况，很可能在华尔街历史上，无出其右。
James R. Koene has said, "The man who is right sixtimes out of ten will make a fortune." Gann is a trader who, without anyattempt to make a showing, for he did not know the results were to bepublished, established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades.
JAMES R KOENE说过：“10次有6次做对了的会致富”。江恩的胜率达到了92%的创记录水平，而且是在没有任何展示的意图上的，因为他当时并不知道这些操作结果要刊登出来。
Mr. W. D. Gann has refused to disclose his method at anyprice, but to those scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to thestock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.
江恩先生拒绝了透露他的方法，出多少钱也不说。但对那些有志于科学研究的人来说，他毫无疑问在华尔街股票知识基础上更加精进，并且指出了无限的可能性。
We have requested Mr. Gann to figure out for the readersof the Ticker a few of the most striking indications which appear in hiscalculations. In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or outof Wall Street, is infallible.
我们曾要求过江恩先生给《日交易者》的读者们指出在他的计算方法里最要紧的几条指引。我们希望在说这个的时候大家都能明白：不论是在华尔街内外，没有人能一贯正确。
William D Gann's figures at present indicate that thetrend of the stock market should, barring the usual rallies, be toward thelower prices until March or April 1910.
威廉姆江恩的当前数字表明，目前股市的趋势会破坏掉通常的多头聚集，直到1910年3月或4月到达更低的点位。
He calculates that May Wheat, which is now selling at$1.02, should not sell below 99¢, and should sell at $1.45 next spring.
他计算说5月小麦，现在是1。02元，将跌到99分以下，在明年春天会卖到1。45元
On Cotton, which is now at about 15¢ level, he estimatesthat after a good reaction from these prices the commodity should reach 18¢ inthe spring of 1910. He looks for a corner in the March or May option.
在铜上，现在是在15美分价格上，江恩估计在有一波象样的表现后会达到18美分，时间是1910年的春天。他认为3月或5月到期期货会有囤积出现。
Whether these figures prove correct or not will in no waydetract from the record which W. D. Gann has already established.
不论这些数字将来证明正确与否，都不会减损江恩先生已经创造的记录。
William Delbert Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age. He is a giftedmathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures, and is an expert TapeReader. Take away his science and he would beat the market _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">威廉姆*德尔伯特*江恩生于TEXAS州的LUFKIN，31岁。他是一个有天分的数学家，对数字有着非同寻常的记忆力，也是的图表阅读专家。就算不考虑他的科学方法，只用他直觉的图表阅读，他就可以击败市场。
Endowed as he is with such qualities, we have nohesitation in predicting that, within a comparatively few years, William D.Gann will receive recognition as _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">因为他天赋异禀，我们毫不犹豫地相信，就在不久的将来，江恩必然会受到华尔街最高领袖的认可。
Note: Since the market forecast was made, Coffee hassuffered the expected decline, the extreme break having been 120 points. Thelowest _disibledevent=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">注意：自从做了市场预测之后，咖啡果如其然发生了下跌，极端跌幅达到120点。3月小麦的最低点到了到了5/8-1。01之间，现在是在1。06-1又1/4之间。
Science teaches that 'an "original impulse" of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises."
科学说明，第一波的运动，都会变成一个周期性的韵律性的运动，就象钟垂在周而复始的摆动，就象月亮在它的轨道上反复，就象来年带来春天的玫瑰，就象当原则重量增加时元素性质周期行的再现。
"I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine ""the vibration of each stock"" and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions."
我发现了股票内部存在着和它的主导力量和谐或不和谐的关系。通过我的方法我可以确定每支股票的波动，同样，把某些时间因素考虑在内的话，我可以，在大多数情况下，精确地说出这些股票在特定情况下如何表现。
"The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their “proper rates of vibration”. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to "the fundamental law of vibration"
这个确定市场趋势的能力，源自于我对每支特定股票特点的了解，和对在特定的波动率下的一组不同股票的认识。股票象电子，原子和分子，它们按照对基本波动法则的响应，保持第着他们独立的个性。
