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近日，人形机器人Ameca在美国CES国际消费电子展上和人们互动的视频在网络上引起热议。视频中Ameca不但会回答各种问题，还会开玩笑...她随便说的一句玩笑话，更是让和她对话的小哥哑口无言...你觉得这个智能程度如何？
视频里，能看到一个有着灰色头部、机械身体的机器人，在满是机器人零件的实验室里打盹。
有人对它打了个响指，它醒来了，有点受到惊吓的样子，眨巴着惺忪的眼睛。
接着，它好像意识到自己的身体与众不同，好奇地看着自己的手臂。机器人终于注意到面前有人，它吓了一跳，身体下意识地向后倾。
看这自然的表情，流畅的动作，这是某个科幻电影的片段吧？视频里的机器人，肯定是用CG做出来的吧？
很多人一开始确实是这么想的，他们在评论区里安慰众人，这肯定是CG动画，没必要惊慌。
但很快，英国科技公司“工程艺术”（Enginnered Arts）就出来认领了，说这是他们在去年12月上传的视频，片中的一切是真实发生的，那只惊讶的机器人名叫Ameca。工程艺术说，这是世界上最先进的仿真机器人。
Ameca：the humanoid robot in its FIRST public demo00:0025:1216:14
AI Robots Date HumansBeyond Atlas And Ameca.↓↓↓ 上下滑动，查看解说稿 ↓↓↓
Ameca’s incredible expressions and interactions are part of a major leap for AI and robots.
They can now see the world and react to it, which means they’re starting to replace human workers.
Robot muscle and AI’s creating immense wealth and removing millions of jobs, but the upsides are stunning.
I’ll also explain all this.
People often mistake this for a real dolphin - but it’s a robot designed to set dolphins free, by replacing them in marine parks.
Thousands of dolphins are locked up in parks, but closing the parks would cut off the millions they raise for conservation.
They’re working on a new version to perform entirely by itself - and that could be the point where they can impress the crowds and replace the dolphins.
And to help reduce the plastic that ends up in the ocean, recycling can now be sorted by robots like this.
It can see different types of plastic, pick them up and throw them into bins.
The things we order online are also being handled by increasingly advanced robots.
Stretch, from Boston Dynamics, can work alongside its friend Spot.
It can deal with large volumes of boxes, and of course, it can dance.
A lot of the food we eat is also moved by robots, or made by them.
And humanoid robots are entering warehouses.
Starting in back rooms, once they’re considered safe, they’ll work alongside humans.
And it’s hard to compete with robots that can work 24 hours a day, without pay - particularly at Amazon, which is infamous for pushing its workers to their limits.
“My work day feels like a nine hour intense workout, every day, and they track our every move.” Amazon workers were twice as likely to be seriously injured as workers at other companies.
One thing that’s preventing robots from taking over entirely, according to an amazon executive, is that humans are good at quickly recognising and sorting products.
And robots are rapidly developing this kind of skill.
Digit sees the world through lidar and depth sensors.
Most of its energy isn’t used for movement, it’s used for computing.
The company expects its robots to go on to help you around the home.
Robot hands are becoming impressively dextrous.
They can use tweezers, scissors and hold tricky objects.
And robot bodies are starting to capture more natural human movement.
Ameca is being used to test and develop AI, so it’s going to get smarter.
And robots are rapidly learning new skills through simulations.
Here’s a simple example, where an AI learns to jump over an increasingly tall barrier.
It also learned to fight, and to master an obstacle course.
And robots have learned incredible dexterity from simulations, including rubik’s cube skills.
We create thousands of different simulated environments.
This means like thousands of years of experience that this neural network has had in simulation.
Everytime the algorithm has gotten good at the task, we make the task harder.
This ability to generalise to new environments feels like a very core piece of intelligence.
Here, AI solves an incredible 55x55 cube.
This machine learned to play table tennis in just 90 minutes, returning 98% of balls: And some AI’s have outsmarted their creators - like this spider which was asked to minimise the time its feet touched the ground.
When it reported that it had leant to move without its feet ever touching the ground, its creators were shocked to find that it had turned itself over.
And when AI’s learned to master hide and seek, one of them found that it could use a ramp to jump outside the game walls.
The rapid progress of AI is giving robots incredible skills.
And it could enable new machines like this bird-like evtol, designed to land in difficult terrain in Africa, carrying medical supplies.
It’s an ambitious project, but the team has some character.
It was designed to blend in with the surrounding landscape.
Unlike most other drones which don't actually fly around, they're just so ugly, the earth repels them from the ground.
Some robots can already walk and fly.
And a flying humanoid robot is in development.
Designed to help search for survivors in disaster zones.
Creative new designs keep emerging, like this one that can accelerate rapidly like a car, walk a dog, or stand up like a human.
It can carry things pretty much anywhere.
Of course, carrying humans at high speed requires a higher level of safety.
You can always think of tesla as like, the world’s biggest robot company, um, or, semi-sentient robot company.
We’re effectively creating the most advanced, practical AI.
It would be tempting to write it off as hype, but they’ve created some incredible technology.
The AI behind autopilot will also power the Tesla bot.
What I find kind of fascinating about this, is that we are effectively building a synthetic animal, from the ground up.
It moves around, it senses the environment, and acts autonomously and intelligently.
We are building the synthetic visual cortex.
So the processing starts when light hits out artificial retina and we are going to process this information with neural networks” The cars also work together.
Here different cars driving the same route combine their data to build a more detailed image of the environment.
Cars also shared ten thousand clips of wind and snow, to learn to identify things from all angles, but also to remember that they’re still there, even if they’re covered up.
The cars have a big advantage over us.
While humans focus on a small area at once - a problem exploited by magicians You were focused on your hand, that's why you were distracted.
While you were watching this I couldn't quite get your watch off, it was difficult.
Yet you had something inside your front pocket, do you remember what it was? Money? Check your pocket, see if it’s still there.
Is it still there? You’re human you’re not slow” AI can see everything in its field of view at all times, and pick out what’s important.
Tesla also uses an impressive simulation, to train its AI.
Notice the road is cracked and patched up.
They create unusual situations, like this couple and their dog running on the road.
Musk believes we all live in a simulation.
Simulation theory shows that if the sims continue to improve, even at a slow pace, eventually they’ll become indistinguishable from reality.
And there will be many of them, so the chances that we’re living in the one reality is very small.
Virtual characters are getting spookily realistic.
Is this the real Keanu Reeves? The choices we make, the worlds we build, they also confront us with questions, about why we want to choose this over that.
Or is this him? It was important for me to ask people, how do we know what is real? You can probably tell, but it’s getting harder.
In just 35 years, we’ve gone from this, to this.
Who knows what we’ll have in a thousand years.
And what would reality mean, when a world we can build feels as real as our own? And Tesla’s building an impressive matrix.
It’s cars have been trained on 300 million images.
In just one training project, 10 billion labels were applied to 2 million clips, using 20,000 CPU cores.
And Tesla has built its own incredibly powerful training matrix.
It’s designed to be the world’s fastest AI training machine and the most powerful computer.
This new chip is more powerful than most computers, and there are 25 of them in this AI training tile.
I can’t believe i’m holding nine petaflops out here.
They’re connecting 120 tiles in one computer - 3000 chips in total.
Straight after announcing this, Tesla revealed plans to build the Tesla bot.
Neural nets, recognising the world, understanding how to navigate through the world.
Uh it kind of makes sense to put that onto a humanoid form.
It’s intended to be friendly, of course um, and navigate through a world built for humans and eliminate, dangerous, repetitive and boring tasks.
Most of the one million warehouse jobs in the US, and millions more in other sectors.
Musk is straightforward about the impact of this.
What happens when there is, er, you know, no shortage of labour, um.
This is why I think long term that there will have to be universal basic income” The robots have a screen for a face, which could show information or expressions.
It’s powered by the same computer used for autonomous driving, the same cameras - with two sets of eyes - and will learn via simulation, in their supercomputer.
The robots will generate incredible wealth.
It obviously has profound implications for the economy because, given that the economy at its foundational level is labour, I mean, is there any actual limit to the economy? Maybe not.
Robot workers have already made Musk the world’s richest man, and he could be the first trillionaire.
It’s made him a target, in a country where many struggle to pay the rent, and half a million are homeless.
Please don’t call the manager on me, Senator Karen.
She struck first, obviously.
Yeah, she did.
She called me a freeloader, and a drifter who doesn’t pay taxes basically, and I’m literally paying the most tax that any individual in history has ever paid this year, ever, uh and she doesn’t pay taxes, basically at all, and her salary is paid for by the taxpayer.
If you could die by irony she would be, she would be dead.
Whatever you think of all this, the wealth gap is growing.
So what happens when billionaires start building humanoid robot workforces? Countries with higher wealth gaps have more crime, more health problems, and lower levels of satisfaction and happiness.
They also have lower economic growth when money goes to luxuries like super-yachts instead of workers.
Researchers are experimenting with a solution that could help everyone, but first, let’s have a look at personal robots.
It could be actually a very good companion.
It could develop, like a personality over time that is, that is like, unique, and the, suttle perfections of the personality of the robot, could actually make an incredible, buddy basically.
In that way.
Like R2D2 or like C3PO sort of thing you know.
Where are you taking these prisoners? These are prisoners? Yes, where are you taking them? I am taking them, to imprison them, in prison.
He is taking us to.
Quiet! Can you spot the boston dynamics robot used in this star wars TV series? Humanoid robots could help with a big global problem that might surprise you.
The birth rate has been declining for decades.
I think the biggest problem people will face in 20 years is population collapse.
It’s very easy to see what the world will look like in 20 years, because humans have a 20 year boot sequence, so like you say, okay well, who was born last year? Okay now you know what the world will look like in 20 years, it’s that easy.
I absolutely agree with that, the speed of population decreasing is going to speed up.
Now you call it collapse, I agree with that.
Accelerating collapse.
Accelerating collapse.
The big problem is that there won't be enough young people, enough workers.
Japan’s already struggling with too few young people, to support its ageing population.
It’s former prime minister called for more rapid development of robots, to help overcome the problem.
People in Japan are already dating AI and robots.
That might be a symptom of isolation, but AI conversations are getting more interesting.
GPT-3 learned to talk by reading hundreds of billions of words on the web.
What do you think is organic? And what do you think is artificial? Good question, I think everything that was ever made somehow stems from organic, even if it was processed to the point most of us like to call it artificial, how about you? I think that's true, in times past, things felt more organic because people used handcrafting to make everything.
Now everything is programmed and let's face it, if we go way back in history, you couldn't even make a wooden spoon, nevermind a skyscraper without a machine.
The AI was initially thought too dangerous to release, in case it wrote huge volumes of fake news, but thousands of developers are now working on it.
One man tailored the AI to sound like his fiance, who died ten year ago, and OpenAI removed his access.
Robots are now learning to track our eyes and move theirs more naturally.
Even for humans it’s a tricky skill, which can have a big impact on a first date.
Hi, how are you? Good, Drew.
Aleisha.
Nice to meet you.
Here their gaze is all over the place, and it was really awkward.
She got on better with this guy, and their gaze was more calm and direct.
Eye tracking has been used to bring characters to life in VR and in experimental robots like this.
And now with Ameca, it’s eyes, face and its body all react to what it’s seeing.
Look at the way it leans back.
Artificial muscles will create even more realistic movements.
Just look at the range of motion in this hand.
It’s incredibly strong - the weight is 7 kg, and here it lifts 26 kg.
It’s powered by water pressure, with half as many muscles as a human hand, and sensors in each joint.
There are 42 muscles in the human face.
Once they’re recreated in a robot, AI can apply infinite expressions.
At the moment, pre-programmed and remote controlled robots get a lot of attention, like boston dynamics dancing robots and this robot dog facing off with a cheetah at Sydney zoo.
It’s an experiment to see if the robot could be used to control the Cheetahs if they got into a dangerous situation.
But the real revolution is going on behind robots’ eyes.
So, the lightsabers.
Apart from a bit of fun, it shows two kinds of robots.
Atlas is incredibly impressive, but it’s best moves are pre-programmed, and it’s largely independent.
It has one life.
With Tesla bot, they’re working towards a robot that can teach itself to perform many tasks.
It will be part of a huge AI network.
The robot itself is less important, and if the AI wanted to survive, it would be very hard to kill.
Hello again.
AI doesn't have to be evil to destroy humanity.
If AI has a goal and humanity just happens to be in the way, it’ll destroy humanity as a matter of course, without even thinking about it, no hard feelings.
It’s just like if we’re building a road, and an anthill happens to be in the way, we don’t hate ants, we’re just building a road, and so goodbye anthill.
For now, it’s taking jobs.
Up to half of all US jobs are expected to disappear over the next ten years I think long term that there will have to be universal basic income.
A Stanford study of several UBI projects found some interesting results.
People who received money regularly didn’t work less.
They did spend more time in education, with higher school attendance.
Their health improved, and rates of disease dropped.
Basic income also allows people to take risks, like this guy, who’s doing amazing things with robotics.
Most of the world’s 40 million amputees can’t afford prosthetics - particularly children who grow out of them.
To bring the cost down, these arms are 3D printed.
I have never, experienced the sensation of having fingers that move like that on this side of my body.
I wonder if I can just.
I just got this open, I have never done that, in my life, what I just did.
Some of the world’s poorest people are now receiving a basic income through a charity called give directly.
08:58
双语 | 机器人会导致我们失业？↓↓↓ 上下滑动，查看双语全文 ↓↓↓
The world is widely considered to be on the cusp of a fourth industrial revolution – one where machines will be able to do many of the jobs currently performed by humans, and perhaps even do them better. It is a future that promises greater efficiency and cheaper services, but one that also could herald widespread job losses.
人们普遍认为，世界正处于第四次工业革命的风口浪尖——机器将能够承担人类目前所做的许多工作，甚至比人类做得更好。未来的社会会更加高效，服务也更加廉价，但这也可能预示着大范围的失业。
It raises a troubling question for all of us – when will a machine be able to do my job?
一个令所有人不安的问题应运而生了——机器何时能替代我的工作？
There are no certain answers, but some of the world’s top artificial intelligence researchers are trying to find out.
这个问题并没有确切的答案，但一些世界顶级的人工智能研究员正试图找出答案。
Katja Grace, a research associate at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute, and her colleagues from the AI Impacts project and the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, have surveyed 352 scientists and compiled their answers into predictions about how long it may take for machines to outperform humans on various tasks.
凯特亚·格蕾丝是牛津大学人类未来研究所的助理研究员，她与来自人工智能影响项目和机器智能研究所的同事，对352名科研人员进行了调研并汇总了结果，以此来预测机器在不同的工作中超越人类所需的时间。
人工智能在工作上的表现何时会超越人类？
When will AI outperform humans at work?
Many of the world’s leading experts on machine learning were among those they contacted, including Yann LeCun, director of AI research at Facebook, Mustafa Suleyman from Google’s DeepMind and Zoubin Ghahramani, director of Uber’s AI labs.
在调研中，他们接触到了许多世界领先的机器学习专家，其中包括脸书人工智能研究主管扬·勒丘恩，谷歌DeepMind创始人穆斯塔法·苏莱曼以及优步人工智能实验室主管Zoubin Ghahramani。
The good news is that many of us will probably be safe in our jobs for some time to come. The researchers predict there is a 50% chance that machines will be capable of taking over all human jobs in 120 years.
好消息是，我们中的大部分人暂时都不会丢饭碗。研究人员预测，在未来120年内，机器有50%的可能性会取代人类所有工作。
So what does this mean for the coming years and decades?
所以，对于未来几年甚至几十年，这意味着什么呢？
Increasing unemployment?
增加失业？
The survey suggests machines could also be folding laundry by 2021. So, if you work at a laundromat, is it time to throw in the towel? Perhaps not.
调查显示，到2021年机器就可以叠盥洗的衣物，这样的话，如果你在自助洗衣店工作，到时候会不会甘拜下风呢？或许并不会。
Machines that can fold clothes do already exist: roboticists at the University of California, Berkeley, have already developed a robot that can neatly fold towels, jeans and T-shirts.
其实会叠衣服的机器已经问世。加州大学机器人学家伯克利研发出了一款能够将毛巾、牛仔裤和T恤叠得十分整齐的机器人。
Admittedly, it took the robot nearly 19 minutes to pick up, inspect and fold a single towel in 2010, but by 2012, it could fold a pair of jeans in five minutes and a T-shirt in a little over six minutes. Perhaps most excitingly, though, the robot can even take on the tedious task of pairing socks.
虽然2010年时机器人拿起一条毛巾，审视一遍然后将其叠好需要花费19分钟，可是到了2012年，它用5分钟就能叠好一条牛仔裤，叠好一件T恤的时间也就6分钟多一点儿。也许最让人振奋的是，机器人甚至能胜任给袜子配对的乏味工作。
But despite this progress, it could be some time before robots like this are able to replace humans.
尽管取得了如此进展，这样的机器人要想取代人类仍需时日。
“I am a bit skeptical of some of the timelines given for tasks that involve physical manipulation, says Jeremy Wyatt, professor of robotics and artificial intelligence at the University of Birmingham.
伯明翰大学机器人学和人工智能教授杰里米·怀亚特表示：“我对机器取代人工的有些时间节点略表怀疑。”
“It is one thing doing it in the lab, and quite another having a robot that can do a job reliably in the real world better than a human.”
“在实验室里操作是一回事，研制出能在现实世界靠谱地做一项工作并超越人类的机器人完全是另外一回事。”
Manipulating physical objects in the real world – figuring out what to manipulate, and how, in a random, changing environment – is an incredibly complex job for a machine. Tasks that don’t involve physical manipulation are easier to teach.
在随机多变的现实环境下操作实体对象，确定操作的内容和方式，对机器来说着实复杂。不需要物理操作的任务更容易训练。
Robot mobility – things like self-driving cars and autonomous deliveries – are probably at the stage the internet was in the early 1990s, Wyatt says. “Moving things around in the world is probably 10 years further behind that.”
机器人的机动性，比如自动驾驶汽车和自动配送等，所处的水平可能只相当于上世纪90年代初的互联网。怀亚特说：“要在全世界实现自动移动技术可能还要再晚10年。”
Your friendly robot assistant
友好的机器人助手
While towel folders are safe for now, perhaps there is reason for truck drivers and retailers to consider their roles over the coming two decades. The researchers predict that AI could be driving trucks by 2027 and doing retail jobs by 2031.
既然会叠毛巾的机器目前来看问题不大，或许卡车司机和零售从业者该想想他们在接下来20年的出路了。研究人员预测到2017年人工智能将能够驾驶卡车，到2031年可以从事零售工作。
The stereotypical retail assistant job – a friendly human to help you find a pair of jeans in a shop, and tell you how they look – is a role that requires complex physical and communication skills, and is probably safe for the moment.
传统的零售辅助工作是一个友好的销售员在店里帮你找到一条牛仔裤，为你讲解它穿在身上是什么样子。这种工作需要复杂的物理和沟通技巧，可能暂时不会受到威胁。
But as more people shop online, AI in the form of bots and algorithms may be replacing other roles in retail far earlier than we might think, says Wyatt. “Look at how many transactions we now do online that are largely automated – it is a significant proportion. And they are already using a reasonable amount of AI.”
怀亚特表示，随着越来越多的人进行网购，以机器人和算法形式出现的人工智能或许会取代零售环节的其他角色，而且远早于我们所认为的时间。“看看现在我们在网上进行的交易有多少基本上是自动完成的，显然大部分都是，人工智能在其中得到了大量应用。”
Fear not, fellow humans
不要害怕，人类同胞
Perhaps the hardest jobs for machines to perform are those that take years of training for humans to excel at. These often involve intuitive decision making, complex physical environments or abstract thinking – all things computers struggle with.
可能对于机器来说，最难掌握的往往是人类经由长年的训练所精通的技能。这些技能常常包括直觉决策，复杂的现实环境或抽象思维，这些都是计算机所不擅长的。
The experts predict robots will not be taking over as surgeons until around 2053, while it could take 43 years before machines are competing with mathematicians for space in top academic journals.
据专家估计，机器人将在2053年左右取代外科医生，而与数学家匹敌，在顶级学术期刊上占有一席之地则需要43年的时间。
They also predict AI computers could be churning out New York Times bestselling novels by 2049.
专家还预测，到2049年，人工智能计算机还能大量创作出《纽约时报》最佳畅销小说。
In reality, machines are already dipping their digital fingers into this field too.
在现实中，机器也已经在数字科技方面涉足到这些领域。
Google has been training its AI on romantic novels and news articles in an attempt to help it write more creatively, and an AI bot called Benjamin can write short sci-fi film scripts – even if they don’t entirely make sense. Then there is the work of Automated Insights, which has created algorithms that churn out millions of personalised news, finance and sports articles for companies like Reuters and the Associated Press.
一直以来，谷歌都在训练人工智能写言情小说和新闻报道，以助于写出最有创意的内容。一个名叫本杰明的人工智能机器人已经写出了一篇短篇科幻电影剧本，虽然有点前言不搭后语。此外，Automated Insights公司（译者注：一家由美联社及其他投资者提供融资的科技公司）也已经发明了一种算法，为路透社和美联社等公司提供数百万篇个性化新闻、金融和体育报道。
Adam Smith, chief operating officer at Automated Insights, says this technology is intended to complement, rather than replace, human expertise. “Automated journalism is creating content that would not have existed before, but humans still need to add context to those stories.”
Automated Insights公司首席运营官亚当·斯密表示，这项技术旨在对人工技能加以辅助，而不是取代人类的专业技能。“自动化的新闻报道创造了以前不存在的内容，但是人类仍然需要对这些内容加以丰富。”
These stories, however, are produced according to a formula, where information is pulled out of large data sets and plugged in to templates. Producing bestselling fiction – rich in word play and with compelling twists in narrative – is still probably three decades away. Attempts by to use machines to play with language in creative ways usually result in nonsense.
但是，人工智能机器人创作的小说是根据一个公式而生成的，在这个公式中，信息从大数据集中提取出来并插入到模板中去。但人工智能创作出语言丰富且故事情节引人入胜的畅销小说，可能还需要三年的时间。而利用机器写出创造性语言的这种方式，往往会导致毫无意义的结果。
The challenge will be getting AI to produce material that is acceptable to our human tastes, says Wyatt. says “We find anything that is even slightly below human-level performance to be unacceptable. Take chatbots – they are not that far from human level performance… but we are so sensitive to any imperfections that they often seem laughably bad.”
对此，怀亚特表示，人工智能面临的挑战将是让机器人生产出符合人类口味的产品。他还表示，“我们发现，人们对于任何稍微低于人类水平的性能都难以接受。”比如聊天机器人，它离人类的水平其实已经非常接近了…但是我们却常常对一些不完美之处吹毛求疵，显得它们的性能很差。
Grace believes the survey should serve as a reminder that the world is on the cusp of radical change: “I don’t think there are any tasks humans can do that AI will be technically unable to carry out.”
格蕾丝认为，这项调查应该让人们认识到，世界正处在巨大变革的风口浪尖。她表示，“我不觉得人类有任何技能是人工智能在技术上实现不了的。”
But she believes some roles may never be replaced by machines. A minister in a church, for example, might never be replaced by a robot if the churchgoers want a person to be in the role.
但她也相信人工智能不能完全取代人类的所有工作。比如教堂里的牧师，如果做礼拜的人需要人来承担这个角色，牧师就永远不会被机器人取代。
“There will still be tasks that can only be conducted by a human because we will care that they are,” she says.
“有些事情只能由人类来做，因为我们只想让人类来做这些事。”她说。
