The presidential elections scheduled for Sunday could bring an end to 61 years of rule by the Colorado Party, bitterly divided over its official candidate, former Education Minister Blanca Ovelar.
All opinion polls give the lead to a former Catholic bishop, Fernando Lugo, the target of lurid Colorado attacks alleging involvement in kidnapping, sexual peccadilloes and even membership of the Colombian FARC rebel group.
Fears of electoral fraud are high and the Organization of American States, which has called on candidates to halt personal attacks on their rivals, is sending election observers to avert the risk of fraud. Although in the past the Colorado Party has always overcome its internal differences in time for elections, this time it appears that Lugo stands a strong chance of ending the party’s long run, buoyed by support from the rural poor.
However, even if Lugo wins, the obstacles to improving governance are substantial -- not least the fact that the Colorados will almost certainly keep control of Congress. Nor is it clear what his policy programme will be, beyond his stated objectives of renegotiating the Itaipu hydroelectric treaty with Brazil, combating corruption and reducing income inequality. Hints that he might seek diplomatic relations with China might bewell-received by Paraguay's prosperous soya growers, but they may generate concerns in Taiwan, Paraguay's main foreign investor, which lacks other South American allies.
Lugo’s lack of political experience and the size and reach of the Colorado political machine could spell difficult times, should he succeed in defeating Ovelar on Sunday.
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