Here’s a concept that is simple and repeatable.
这是一个简单且重复的概念。
I shared this post on social media just before the open on Monday:
在周一开盘之前，我在社交媒体上分享了这篇文章：
And then this post on Tuesday, after the markets were kind enough to offer us a brilliant example of the concept in action:
然后在周二的这篇文章中，市场非常友好地为我们提供了一个关于这一概念的精彩例子之后：
As I said at the start – it’s simple. And repeatable.
正如我一开始所说的——这很简单，且是重复的。
And incredibly effective.
并且非常有效。
Not all shifts from a green to red day will have this follow though. You need the emotion.
但并非所有从绿色到红色的转换都会有这样的结果。你需要感受市场情绪。
Fear amongst the bulls caught in a trap. And an urgency to trade amongst the bears who sense bloodshed and opportunity in the markets.
感受被套牢的多头的情绪。以及感受到多头流血和在空头方向上交易的紧迫性。
Or… get in pre-breakout if you can sense it coming beforehand. PB setup targeting the break.
或者...如果你能提前感觉到它的到来，就提前准备预突破。PB结构，目标突破。
We’ve explored this concept quite a few times over the years.
多年来，我们已经多次探讨这个概念。
Here for example, where we discussed this chart sequence (click the link for greater detail).
例如，在这里，我们讨论了此图表的序列。
And here, for this price sequence. Plus a few other examples including one that would have lost.
在这里，这个价格序列。再加上其他几个例子，包括其他已经丢失的例子。
And here, for the following price sequence. Including a trade shared by a reader who managed to enter EARLIER though recognising the failure of the initial move.
在这里，如下的价格序列。包括每一位读者分享的交易，尽管他意识到最初的交易失败，但还是设法提前进入。
All similar in concept. All similar in outcome.
相似的概念，相似的结果。
The key feature though, not always visible in static historical charts, is TRADER EMOTION.
但是在静态的历史图表中，并不能看到交易的关键特征——交易者情绪。
Your job is to evaluate the market context and make a real-time assessment of the sentiment behind price movement.
你的工作是评估市场环境，并实时评估价格变动背后的情绪。
Something must be present in the context and in the price action to STRONGLY encourage buying from the open.
在市场环境中一定会展现一些东西，和价格行为，鼓励开盘时强烈的买盘。
And then… when that movement higher fails… that’s where you find opportunity.
然而...当更高的推动失败时...那就是你找到机会的地方。
If the idea appeals to you, explore it deeper. Find examples of this “Long is Wrong” scenario and examine the conditions which might have led to the move. How could you have recognised this occurring in real-time? How could you have best entered and managed the opportunity?
如果你对这个想法感兴趣，那就更深入地探索它。找到这种“多是错的”情景的例子，并检查可能导致这一行动的条件。你如何能够实时识别这种情况？你如何才能最好地进入并管理这种机会。
And just as important, study those examples which fail. Could you have recognised this in advance and avoided the trade? Or if not, how quickly could you have recognised and responded to the failure, in order to minimise loss? And would that perhaps offer opportunity in the opposite direction?
同样重要的是，研究那些失败的例子。你是否可以提前意识到这一点，并避免交易？或者，如果没有，为了最大限度地减少损失，你能够以多快的速度识别并响应失败？这可能会提供相反方向的交易机会吗？
And then take the lessons learnt forward to real-time trials. Monitor stats. Review. And learn.
然后将学到的经验教训进行实时测试。监控统计数据，回顾，并学习。
There is great opportunity available in the markets at the times and places where a whole lot of other traders have got it wrong.
在很多其他交易者犯错的时间和地点，市场上存在着巨大的机会。
But you must learn to feel the emotion. Not just see price.
但是你必须学会感受这种情绪。而不是仅仅看价格。
Happy trading,
交易愉快，
Lance Beggs
兰斯贝斯
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