2022年预测报告：影响未来建筑环境的设计策略

CRTKL近日发布了《2022年预测报告：影响未来建筑环境的设计策略》，该份报告基于宏观趋势，确定了市场相关主题与指标。我们精心搜集了从客户行为到城市受到的影响等在内的专业观点。着眼于城市规划、综合体、办公空间、零售、酒店、住宅和医疗等领域，以审视对建筑环境而言至关重要的因素。

Recently, CRTKL released 2022 Forecast about defining the design strategies that will shape the built environment in the year to come. In this annual forecast, we build on the inaugural edition, identifying market-specific themes and indicators in response to macro-trends. We carefully curated viewpoints from the individual, like customer behaviors to urban implications occurring at the city scale. We examine what is of critical importance to the built environment across urban design, mixed-use, workplace, retail, hospitality, residential, and healthcare sectors.

本文以节选的形式向大家展现每个领域中的部分研究内容，您可以滑动到文章底部获取完整版报告。

This article presents some of the research in each field in excerpts, and you can swipe to the bottom of the article for the full report.

PUD

规划和城市设计

城市如何在尊重数据隐私的同时，充分利用数字化发展带来的优势?

HOW CAN CITIES TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DIGITAL EVOLUTION WHILE RESPECTING DATA PRIVACY?

城市环境必须踏入更加智慧化的发展阶段。要想打造“智慧”城市，数字技术、数据、网络安全和公私合作关系缺一不可——这些因素是我们预测、监控、分析和优化城市表现并改善城市居民生活品质的关键。与此同时，智慧城市的平稳运行和基础设施建设所需的侵入性数据也引发了人们对数据隐私、收集和所有权的担忧，这些问题都亟需解决。

Our urban environments must start working smarter not harder. For a city to be 'smart' it must integrate digital technology, data, cybersecurity and public-private partnerships - with these factors key to forecasting, monitoring, analyzing and optimizing a city's performance and improving the quality of life for those within it. Meanwhile, the intrusive data that smart cities depend on for their smooth running and infrastructure development raises concerns about data privacy, collection, and ownership, which need to be addressed.

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通过数字化技术与人本体验的叠加，我们将可打造能够自我维持、自我治愈的智慧城市，能够更好地回馈人类与地球的场所。

By applying a digital overlay to the human experience, we create cities smart enough to sustain and heal themselves - places that give back to their people and planet.

魏力 LILY WEI

董事，上海

Principal, Shanghai

MIXED-USE

综合体

传统购物中心如何持续获得认同并保持盈利能力?

HOW DO TRADITIONAL MALLS STAY RELEVANT AND PROFITABLE?

随着地产业向更具响应性和灵活性的服务业转变，融合空间正在成为一种新的“常态”。这意味着同质化的购物中心将无法生存。固定场所将被分割成多个空间，让位于更加灵活的经营模式，其中融合了住宅、酒店、办公空间、医疗、教育和交通等各项服务，帮助零售商吸引新的既有受众。

Blended spaces are becoming the norm as real estate transforms into a service industry that can be more responsive and flexible. This means homogenous malls with generic anchors will not survive. Fixed structures will instead be carved up to make way for more flexible models that incorporate residential, hospitality, workplace, healthcare, education and transit offerings that deliver new, ready-made audiences to retailers.

通透性和多样性将是提升客流量和保持全新布置的空间活力、充分发挥空间用途的关键。通过这种融合使用模式，间隙空间将成为吸引客流的主力，随着人流的涌入打造一种别开生面的体验，以满足消费者需求。

Creating such permeability and variety will be the key in encouraging footfall and maintaining the vibrancy of these newly arranged spaces and uses. Interstitial space will become the main attraction with the spill of people through this blended-use model creating a lively experience, where it is possible to have all matter of basic needs met and higher needs fulldilled.

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WORKPLACE

办公空间

办公室正在经历怎样的变化?

HOW IS THE OFFICE ENVOLVING?

“办公室”不再仅仅指代一个带有四面墙壁的物理场所。它更像是一个概念，而非一个空间。

The 'office' no longer refers simply to a physical place with four walls. It is more of a concept than a space.

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我们的目的不是设计新的办公室，而是打造能够支持新型办公模式与不同办公类型的物理基础设施，赋权员工自由选择办公方式和办公地点——传统的办公室办公、数字化办公或线上办公。

Instead of designing new offices, we are creating the physical infrastructure to support new ways of working and varied typologies that empower people to choose how and where they work - be it in traditional office, digital or meta environments.

李嘉慧 KAREN LEE

总监，上海

Associate Principal, Shanghai

RETAIL

零售业

商店的新角色是什么?如何利用数据/数字技术来进行内部决策?

WHAT IS THE STORE'S NEW ROLE AND HOW IS DATA/DIGITAL BEING LEVERAGED FOR IN-STORE DECISIONS?

2022年，实体零售环境下的面对面交易将有所简化。在移动数字工具的支持下，零售业将提供更多定制的、本地化和基于服务的体验。数字互动将以消费者为主，而不是品牌。

In 2022, we will see physical retail environments simplify in-person transactions. Enabled by mobile digital tools, they will offer more bespoke, localized and service-based experiences. Digital interactions will focus on the consumer rather than the brand.

2022年，零售商店将专注于体验感、适合度和功能性等维度。数字化设计可以用来丰富相关内容以及发挥教育作用，其核心目标是打造更加无缝的体验。

The 2022 store will be about how things feel, fit and function. Digital design can be leveraged to enrich and educate - with its central goal being the creation of a more seamless experience.

PAUL CONDER

董事，纽约

Principal, New York

HOSPITALITY

酒店业

宾客的期望值发生了什么样的变化?

HOW ARE GUEST EXPECTATIONS SHIFTING?

宾客期望值的10大变化∶

10 CHANGES TO GUEST EXPECTATIONS:

1. 餐饮范围

Food & Beverage (F&B) scope

2.（旅行）推销员的回归

The comeback of the (traveling) salesman

3.随时随地办公（WFA）

Work From Anywhere (WFA)

4.混合型酒店

Hybrid hospitality

5.生物识别技术和数据交换

Biometrics & data exchange

6.重视客人心理和行为研究

Psychographics & behaviors over demographics

7.数据分析与个性化

Profiling & personalization

8.无交易的旅行

Transactionless travel

9.现实生活体验高于虚拟世界

IRL over URL

10.本地宾客体验

The local guest

为超越客人不断变化的期望，我们在设计时要考虑客人的态度（而不是年龄），要考虑联合办公（而不是商务旅行），要考虑未来的用途（而不是短期压力）。在疫情背景下，应利用技术手段丰富客人体验，而不是单纯地减少人际互动。让技术可用不可见，让数据发挥出更大的作用。创造一个对当地人和旅行者同样有吸引力的地方，并尊重周边的生态系统。

To get ahead of changing guest expectations, design for attitude - not age, for co-working - not business travel, for future uses not short-term pressures. Use tech to maximize experiences, not just minimize human interactions. Make the tech invisible and the data work harder. Create an offer that is as appealing to locals as it is to travelers, and respect the ecosystem you are a part of.

PAUL CONDER

董事，纽约

Principal, New York

RESIDENTIAL

住宅

家和“物联网之家”（HOT）的新理念是什么样的?

WHAT IS THE NEW BRIEF FOR THE HOME AND THE HOME OF THINGS (HoT)?

界限的日益模糊使得各种不同住宅设施的崛起成为必然，例如“生活工作一体化”空间和“物联网之家”（HoT）。“物联网之家（HoT）”指家中存在的、内嵌传感器、具备处理能力、内置软件和其他科技的物体，它们可以通过互联网或其他通信网络与其他设备和系统连接并交换数据。

The blurring of these lines is necessitating a different set of residential amenities, like live/work spaces and the Home of Things (HoT). The HoT refers to the physical objects within the home that are embedded with sensors, processing ability, software and other technologies that connect and exchange data with other devices and systems over the Internet or other communications networks.

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人们的欲望正在超越物质本身。相较于物质，我们更希望获得有意义的社交和更大的自由。我们希望做得更出色，身体更健康。这种新的道德和健康意识正在改变家的概念，从而为更环保、更具社会包容性的多户住宅和“为租而建”建筑开辟了市场。

People are outgrowing material desires. We don't want 'things' so much as we want meaningful connections and greater freedoms. We want to do and be better. This newfound ethical and health conscience is changing the brief for the home and opening up a market for climate positive, socially inclusive build to rent and multifamily communities.

JOHN BADMAN

董事，伦敦

Principal, London

HEALTHCARE

医疗

健康经济和健康地产的未来前景如何?

WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF THE WELLNESS ECONOMY AND WELLNESS REAL ESTATE?

美国和亚洲部分国家（中国、澳大利亚、印度）以及欧洲少数国家（英国、德国）在全球健康地产市场中占据着四分之三的份额。健康地产市场代表着医疗行业的未来，同时也诠释了如何将该领域的专业知识与设计策略应用于其他行业。

The United States and a few key countries in Asia (China, Australia, India) and Europe (UK, Germany) account for three-quarters of this global wellness real estate market. This market represents the future of healthcare and illustrates how the expertise and design strategies of this sector can be applied to the advantage of others.

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人们对健康的重视程度超过了物质。一种新的道德认识正出现在我们生活的方方面面——我们居住的场所、我们的工作方式、我们的消费对象以及我们锻炼、社交和旅行的次数等。我们更加清醒地意识到，我们的选择不仅直接影响着自身健康，而且影响着我们的邻居以及我们的星球的健康。

People are placing more value on wellness than on material objects. There is a new ethical consciousness around all aspects of our lives - where we live, how we work, what we consume and how much we exercise, socialize and travel. We are more aware of the direct impact our choices have not just on our own health, but that of our neighbors and our planet.

BEAU HERR

董事，达拉斯

Principal, Dallas

CRTKL致力于推行积极的设计理念，给人类创造更好的生活，给地球创建更美好的环境。因此，我们着眼于可持续发展、健康卫生、社会责任和增强连通性等方面，专注于设计能够让人们蓬勃发展且永恒存在的社区。

CRTKL is a steward of positive design for the benefit of people and the planet. As such, we focus our lens on sustainability, wellbeing, social responsibility and enhancing connectivity - designing lasting communities that allow people to thrive.