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Preparing for the Cyber Attack That Will Knock Out U.S. Power Grids
By Stuart Madnick | May 10, 2017
Cyber attacks are unavoidable, but we’re not going to stop using computerized systems. Instead, we should be preparing for the inevitable, including a major cyber attack on power grids and other essential systems. This requires the ability to anticipate not only an unprecedented event but also the ripple effects that it could cause.
Now think about what would happen if a cyber attack brought down the power grid in New York, for example. New Yorkers could manage for a few hours, maybe a few days, but what would happen if the outage lasted a week or more? For an example of the kind of disruption such an attack could cause, consider the 2011 Japanese tsunami. It knocked out both the power lines and the backup generators at the same time. Either event could have been managed, but both occurring at the same time was a disaster. Without power, the cooling systems in three nuclear reactors failed, resulting in massive radiation exposure and concerns about the safety of food and water. The lesson: We need to prepare not only for an unexpected event but also for the possible secondary effects.
Based on conversations I’ve had with experts in the field, preparedness for a major cyber attack like this is low, regardless of whether you’re talking about the regional or city level, or the private sector. As Lawrence Susskind, a professor in MIT’s urban systems department, described it to me, “Millions…could be left with no electricity, no water, no public transportation, and no waste disposal for weeks (or even months)…. No one can protect critical urban infrastructure on its own. Nobody, though, is showing any leadership.”
You may be wondering why a major cyber attack of this nature hasn’t already occurred. There are three necessary conditions for it to happen: opportunity, capability, and motivation. As I sometimes say, “The good guys are getting better, but the bad guys are getting badder faster.”
So, our saving grace at the moment is motivation. While there are some state actors who might want to shut down a major power grid in another country, the possibility of retaliation acts as a deterrent. But that equation changes when you consider actors like North Korea or ISIS, or any disgruntled group in the world that might proceed regardless of the consequences. Even criminals are an increasing risk. Here in the Boston area, we have seen ransomware attacks on local police department. How much “protection” might the governor pay to prevent a statewide shutdown of essential services like power generation?
Questions we should all be asking include: If the power grid is breached and all the electric-start generators fail too, what do we do? What’s the backup plan for the backup plan? What happens to our food supply? Our water supply? Our sewer systems? Our financial systems? Our economy?
When it comes to being prepared for a significant cyber attack, there are three essential elements. Some are actions that we can take on our own, such as having backups in place for key systems and for secondary systems. Some are actions best undertaken by government, such as guidance on the important steps to take when a major cyber attack happens. Finally, there are things that require public-private collaboration.
This isn’t rocket science. But it does involve systems-level thinking about how everything is connected, and considering the layers of interdependencies. For example, hospitals might have backup generators, but what about the supply line for refueling? If the refueling stations need electricity to operate pumps, what is the plan? A few states, including Florida have introduced regulations to address this concern, but only for outages of 72 hours.
We need innovative, systems-level thinking — and a sense of urgency — to mitigate the impact of a major cyber attack. And we need it now.
unavoidable: 不可避免的
inevitable: 不可避免的
unprecedented: 前所未有的
ripple effect: 涟漪效应, 连锁反应
disruption: 破坏
tsunami: 海啸
radiation exposure: 辐射暴露
secondary effect: 次级效应
preparedness: 有准备，已准备
infrastructure: 基础设施
saving grace：仅有的优点；唯一可取之处
retaliation：报复
deterrent：威慑力量
disgruntled ：不满的
public-private collaboration: 公私协力
rocket science: 高深的事，复杂的事
systems-level thinking: 系统思维, 系统思考
interdependency: 相互依赖，相互依存
refueling: 中途加油
innovative: 创新的
sense of urgency: 紧迫感
mitigate: 使缓和，使减轻;使平息
in place：就位
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