The impact of natural disasters on price and quality of wine

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Brewing industry has a saying: "abottle of good wine, seven by species, three by wine".

The quality of grape is the key to the quality of wine. A good grape may not make a good wine, but a good grape may not make a good wine.

When it comes to growing grapes, that's agriculture; When it comes to agriculture, the influence of the natural climate inevitably comes up.

Australian vineyard yield and unit price of grapes

First, I'd like to give you some information about the yield of Australian vineyards.

Look for a reference first, the per unit of area yield of our country's fresh grape (for example giant peak grape) is in 2000-3000 catties high yield can reach 4000 catties.

The per unit of area yield of vineyards in many production areas in Australia is also very high, such as Riverland, SEA and other production areas dominated by commercial grade wine. The average annual output per hectare is almost 15-25 tons, which is equivalent to 2000-3000 catties per unit of area.

But these high-yielding gardens produce grapes at very low unit prices. The reason is very simple, the fertility of the land is limited, the lower the yield of the same land, the more nutrition each grape gets, the better the quality. Although we cannot measure quality solely by yield, it is true that yield is an important factor affecting quality.

On the other hand, fine wine vineyards produce several times less per hectare than commercial vineyards, and many yield less than 800 catties per unit of area.

Let's take 2015 data as an example for comparison:

The average yield of cabernet sauvignon per hectare was 19 tons (2,533 catties per unit of area), and the average price was 331 Australian dollars per ton.

Shiraz produces an average of 21 tons per hectare (2,800 catties per unit of area) at an average price of a $314 per ton.

Compared with the Barossa valley, which produces fine wines, the average yield of cabernet sauvignon is 3.7 tons per hectare (493 kilograms per unit of area), and the average price is 1838 Australian dollars per ton.

Shiraz produces 4.7 tons per hectare at an average price of a $1,422 per ton.

It is easy to see from these data that there lationship between yield per unit of area and unit price is strong and clear.

It is easy to see from these data that there lationship between yield per unit of area and unit price is strong and clear.

What are the grape disasters?

There are many kinds of disasters affecting grapes, including weather, rainfall and pests.

In terms of temperature, the climate of Australia is very friendly to grapes. Australia's major wine regions have relatively warm winters, and the occasional spring chill during the grape germination season can have some impact, but vineyard managers have developed strategies to protect the buds. Different years can be hot or cold, making the harvest a week earlier or a week later, but that is not a disaster.

Rainfall can have a big impact on grapes, grapes will be greatly reduced water shortage. Fortunately, there are no rigid restrictions on vineyard irrigation in Australia. 

Moreover, most Australian vineyards have an irrigation system and there is enough water reserve nearby, which can overcome the years with insufficient precipitation through irrigation. Of course, irrigation will increase the cost.

But some vineyards, like some in Europe, have gone for the land without irrigation.

In dry years, these vineyards generally produce much less.

There are many kinds of pests and diseases, which can affect the yield and quality of grapes at the same time. However, in most grape producing areas, the late ripening stage is generally dry, so in Australia, pests and diseases are not so trouble some. The problems of pests, diseases and birds can generally be avoided by proper vineyard management.

 

(pulling a net can effectively prevent birds from stealing grapes)

The impact of disasters on wine quality and price

This problem is affected by many factors, so it can only be analyzed year by year.

Take this year as an example, the 2018-2019 growing season in Australia can be said to be very dry, with the pre cipitation in the growing stage of many major wine regions significantly lower than the average level.

However, most vineyards are equipped with an irrigation system and sufficient water, so the overall grape yield in Australia this year can be guaranteed and will not be significantly reduced.

It is true that a small number of vineyards have lost production, with a very few producing more than 80%, but these are rare cases. Production costs are bound to increase as a result of the use of irrigation for water supply.

What about the price and quality of Australian wine this year?

Prices are likely to rise for Australian wines in 2019, including loose wines, commercial bottled wines and fine wines. However, this year's price increase is mainly affected by the supply and demand of the market, and this year's drought is not the most important factor affecting the price of Australian wine.

 

"Strong international demand for Australian wines will be the main driver of Australian wine prices over the next two years," said Philip Reidman, world wine master and marketing ambassador of Australian river properties.

At the same time, Ms. Klena, the vineyard manager at Oliver Rrangol, one of Penfold’s main grape suppliers, said: "this year's drought did have an impact on production, but we can deal with it through irrigation, which increases costs. I think Australian wine prices will go up this year, but the increase is more influenced by supply and demand in the market.”

When it comes to grape quality, most insiders are optimistic. After all, historically, lower yields have been associated with better quality.

Combined with a generally very mild climate this year, the harvest is a week or two later than usual, which means the grapes have a longer ripening period to accumulate flavor. Australian media even predicted that this year would be a high quality year once in a hundred years.

Of course, the price and quality of Australian wine this year, it depends on the specific situation in a few months.

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