期刊简介
本期编委
【编译】吴皓玥、赵雷、扎西旺姆、许文婷、李玉婷
【校对】王川
【审核】周玫琳
【排版】高佳美
本期目录
战略意外，核扩散和美国外交政策
【题目】Strategic surprise, nuclear proliferation and US foreign policy
【作者】Michael D Cohen，澳大利亚国立大学亚太学院高级讲师；Aaron Rapport，英国剑桥大学政治与国际研究系讲师。
【摘要】战略意外对外交政策有什么影响？作者运用认知心理学和外交政策分析中的“后视偏差（hindsight bias）”与“政策参与（policy engagement）”，以此理论化政治领导人如何对战略意外进行责任归咎及对他们外交政策的后果。作者认为，如果领导人几乎不参与与一个意外事件相关的政策事务，那么这些领导人往往会认为，这个意外事件本该是可以预见的，并把责任归咎于国内的肇事者，支持外交政策的重大改变。相反，那些更多地参与政策规划的领导人会指责敌国的欺骗，并抵制政策的改变。作者以杜鲁门政府对1949年苏联核试验的反应和约翰逊政府对1967年中国热核爆炸的反应为例，从实证方面说明了这些假设。尽管国际和国内的政治环境相似，两位总统对这两个意外事件的反应却截然不同。1949年以前，杜鲁门在核事务上的参与度并不高，（1949年苏联核试验之后）杜鲁门授权进行了重大的政策改革，并重组了中央情报局。与此相反，约翰逊对核问题的深入参与使他将这次意外事件归咎于中国的欺骗。他试图利用1967年的核试验来推进他保护核不扩散条约的持续努力。研究结果表明，政策参与和后视偏差这两个变量可以预测领导人的外交政策将如何应对有关核武器扩散和潜在的其他均势变化的意外事件。
What are the effects of strategic surprise on foreign policy? We apply mechanisms from cognitive psychology and foreign policy analysis — the hindsight bias and policy engagement — to theorize about how political leaders attribute blame for strategic surprises and the consequences for their foreign policies. We argue that leaders who are hardly engaged with policy matters related to a surprise will tend to believe that it should have been foreseen, attribute blame to domestic culprits and favour significant changes in foreign policy. Conversely, those more involved with policy planning will blame an adversary’s deception and resist policy change. We illustrate these hypotheses empirically by examining the cases of the Truman administration's reaction to the 1949 Soviet nuclear test and the Johnson administration's reaction to the 1967 Chinese thermonuclear explosion. Despite their similar international and domestic political environments, the two presidents reacted quite differently to the two surprises. Truman, who was weakly engaged with nuclear matters prior to 1949, authorized major policy changes and reorganized the Central Intelligence Agency. Conversely, Johnson's deeper involvement in nuclear matters led him to attribute blame for the surprise to Chinese deception. He sought to use the 1967 test to advance his ongoing efforts to secure the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The findings suggest that the variables of policy engagement and the hindsight bias can predict how leaders' foreign policies will respond to surprises regarding nuclear weapons proliferation and potentially other shifts in the balance of power.
【编译】吴皓玥
【校对】王川
社会压力与战时平民保护规则的制定
【题目】Social Pressure and the Making of Wartime Civilian Protection Rules
【作者】Giovanni Mantilla，剑桥大学政治学与国际研究系讲师。
【摘要】 保护平民免受战争危险是当代全球政治的当务之急。通过对诸多原始档案的研究，本文解释了在20世纪70年代国际人道主义法中平民保护核心规则的编纂。作者认为，在冷战和非殖民化时代国际社会竞争的政治背景下，这些至关重要的国际规则是由两种核心机制的运作导致的：第三世界和社会主义国家主导的社会压力，以及大国对这种压力的一种战略性的、保全面子的反应，即领导权俘虏（leadership capture）。本文展示了社会压力对不情愿的大国们（美英苏）所产生的有条件的影响，这种社会压力来自国力较弱的第三世界国家和社会主义国家的联合施加。第三世界和社会主义阵营的压力催生了一种奇怪的美苏幕后合作，作者把这种合作称为“领导权俘虏”，它决定性地形成了《日内瓦公约第一附加议定书》的平民保护规则所体现的法律妥协。从理论上讲，本文进一步研究了社会压力、地位竞争和国际规则制定之间的关系。从经验上讲，它为国际法中一个具有本质重要性的案例呈现了一段新的基于档案的历史。
The protection of civilians from the dangers of warfare constitutes an imperative in contemporary global politics. Drawing on original multiarchival research, this article explains the codification of the core civilian protection rules within international humanitarian law in the 1970s. It argues that these crucial international rules resulted from the operation of two central mechanisms: Third World and Socialist-led social pressure and a strategic, face-saving reaction to it, leadership capture, in the politicized context of Cold War and decolonization-era international social competition. I demonstrate the conditional effect of social pressure by a coalition of materially weaker Third World and Socialist states upon powerful reluctant states: the United States, the United Kingdom, and more surprisingly, the Soviet Union. Third World and Socialist social pressure fostered a curious US-USSR backstage collaboration I label leadership capture, decisively shaping the legal compromise embodied in the civilian protection rules of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions. Theoretically, this article furthers burgeoning IR work on the connection between social pressure, status competition, and international rule-making. Empirically it presents a new archives-based history of an intrinsically important case in international law.
【编译】赵雷
【校对】王川
启动软实力：建立动态的概念框架
【标题】Setting soft power in motion: towards a dynamic conceptual framework
【作者】 Ivan Bakalov, 不莱梅大学（University of Bremen）的不莱梅国际社会科学研究生院玛丽-斯科沃多夫斯卡-库里博士研究员。
【摘要】软实力的概念被普遍认为不适合为学术服务。但本文并没有否定它，而是试图通过解决其尚未解决的概念性问题来揭示软实力的潜在价值。可以说，所提出的概念修订可以证明它对国际关系学者的价值，因为它可以围绕着机制研究来构建研究结构，并协调理性主义和建构主义的权力分析方法。尽管修订后的概念框架建立在约瑟夫·奈的原始论述和软实力研究成果的基础上，但正是来自有争议的政治研究项目的知识输入，才使得启动软实力的关键调整成为可能。文章提出了三个概念性的干预措施：第一种干预措施在软实力和硬实力之间划出了两方面的本质区别，第二种干预措施发展了一种既是关系性的又是历时性的理解，而第三种干预措施则将重点从以行为体为中心的分析转向以过程为中心的分析。这三项干预措施凝聚成一个共同的办法，以应对尚未解决的问题。这些问题对范式辩论持不可知论的立场，并优先研究各种权力形式之间的互动机制。
The concept of soft power is widely regarded as unfit for academic service. But instead of dismissing it, this article grapples with its unresolved conceptual problems in an attempt to reveal the hidden value of soft power. Arguably, the proposed conceptual revision can prove its merit to International Relations scholars by structuring research around the study of mechanisms and reconciling rationalist and constructivist approaches for the analysis of power. While the revised conceptual framework builds on Nye’s original account and on the achievements of soft-power scholarship, it is the intellectual import from the contentious politics research programme that enables the crucial adjustments setting soft power in motion. The article proposes three conceptual interventions: the first draws a twofold difference-in-kind between soft and hard power, the second develops an understanding that is both relational and diachronic, while the third shifts the focus from an actor-centred to a process-centred analysis. The three interventions coalesce into a common approach to tackle the unresolved problems that takes an agnostic stance towards paradigmatic debates and prioritises inquiries into the mechanisms of interaction between the various forms of power.
【编译】扎西旺姆
【校对】王川
角色、身份与安全：君主制科威特的外交政策之争
【题目】Roles, identity, and security: foreign policy contestation in monarchical Kuwait
【作者】Sean Yom，美国天普大学政治学副教授，美国外交政策研究所中东项目高级研究员。
【摘要】2011-2012年的“阿拉伯之春”对海湾合作委员会的六个君主制国家形成了生存威胁。他们对此作出的主要回应是2012年的《海合会内部安全公约》，这是一项旨在加强跨境镇压国内反叛，从而维护集体安全的创新性项目。但科威特君主最终没有批准这一条约，尽管其历史上存在弱势，国内正动乱不止，且他们一开始对条约充满兴趣。基于外交政策角色与身份的理论，本文为这一谜团提供了一种观念上的解释。这一安全公约的失败是由于它激起了身份之争。对很多科威特人来说，萨巴赫王室实施这一更广泛镇压计划的前景与该政权包容国内多元主义和保护科威特免受外国压力的历史角色是不相容的。这一宽容保护者的角色观源于历史理解和集体记忆，并在认知上与一种“科威特人”的民族自我观念相联系。这种公众反对的动员范围和象征力量说服了当局选择默许，尽管它拥有强制实施条约的战略动机和资源。科威特的这一案例证明了国内对政权身份和角色的争论如何限制外交政策行为，即使是在威权国家面临严重不安全危机的情况下。
The 2011–2012 Arab Spring posed an existential threat to the Gulf Cooperation Council’s six monarchies. A major response was the 2012 GCC Internal Security Pact, an innovative project to enhance cross-border repression of domestic opposition and thus bolster collective security. Yet despite its historic weakness, ongoing domestic unrest, and initial enthusiasm for the agreement, Kuwait’s monarchy did not ultimately ratify the accord. Building on theories of foreign policy roles and identity, this article presents an ideational explanation for this puzzle. The Security Pact failed because it sparked identity contestation. For many Kuwaitis, the prospect of the Sabah monarchy imposing this scheme for greater repression was incompatible with the regime’s historical role of tolerating domestic pluralism and protecting Kuwait from foreign pressures. This role conception of a tolerant protector flowed from historical understandings and collective memory and was cognitively tied to a national self-conception of “Kuwaiti-ness”. The mobilizational scope and symbolic power of this popular opposition convinced the regime to acquiesce, despite possessing the strategic incentive and resources to impose the treaty by force. The Kuwaiti case therefore exemplifies how domestic contestation over regime identities and roles can constrain foreign policy behavior, even in authoritarian states facing severe crises of insecurity.
【编译】许文婷
【校对】王川
中国对欧盟能源领域投资的动机、安全威胁和地缘政治影响：基于CDP Reti案的研究
【题目】Motivations, security threats and geopolitical implications of Chinese investment in the EU energy sector: the case of CDP Reti
【作者】Miguel Otero-Iglesias，西班牙埃尔卡诺皇家研究所（Elcano Royal Institute）高级研究员，西班牙IE大学国际关系学院教授，法国昂热高等商学院（ESSCA）研究员；Manuel Weissenegger，欧洲中央银行法律分析师。
【摘要】近年来中国对欧洲的对外直接投资的激增经常引起（欧洲人）对国家安全事务的担忧。本文试图通过Moran和Oldenski的国家安全框架，确定哪些交易中这种忧虑是合理的。本文对中国国有独资公司国家电网收购CDP Reti S.p.A. （CDP Reti）35%（该能源公司通过其子公司Terna S.p.A.控制意大利的电网）的股份这一事件进行案例分析。在国家安全方面，本文发现尽管中国国家电网可以提名CDP Reti董事会的两名成员，但是这对国家安全没有直接威胁。在地缘政治方面，通过Scholten和Bosman设计的思想实验（thought experiment），本文发现，在可再生能源利用重要性增加的当下，想要对地缘政治产生影响力，需要建立力量（framing power）而不是控制一个国家电网的战略发展。中国国家电网在CDP Reti董事会可提名的成员使得其至少可以对该公司的投资决策产生部分影响，因此本文得出结论：该交易使中国对意大利电网具有地缘政治影响力，而这种影响力也可能导致间接的安全顾虑。由于欧洲的电力互通，这种影响可能扩展到整个欧盟电网。
The recent surge in Chinese outbound foreign direct investment in Europe has been met with anxiety often invoking national security concerns. Using the national security framework developed by Moran and Oldenski, we try to ascertain which transactions justify apprehension. Our case study is the acquisition by a subsidiary of wholly state-owned State Grid Corporation of China of a 35% stake in CDP Reti S.p.A. (CDP Reti) that controls Italy’s electricity grid via its subsidiary Terna S.p.A. Although State Grid Corporation of China can nominate two members of CDP Reti’s board of directors, we find that there is no direct threat to national security. We then tackle the geopolitical dimension of investments in electricity grids. Using the ‘thought experiment’ developed by Scholten and Bosman, the contribution we make is that, in a world where the importance of renewable energy increases, a framing power rather than control over the strategic development of a country’s grid is sufficient to exert geopolitical power. Since State Grid Corporation of China’s exponents on CDP Reti’s board can at least partly influence the company’s investment decisions, we conclude that the transaction grants China geopolitical influence over Italy’s grid. Furthermore, in the future this type of geopolitical influence could also lead to indirect security concerns. The interconnection of European electricity flows extends this conclusion to the EU’s electricity grid as a whole.
【编译】李玉婷
【校对】王川
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