《经济学人》：为什么日本房屋寿命这么短 （日本房屋平均折旧年限仅22年）
Economist: Why Japanese houses have such limited lifespans
The value of the average house depreciates to zero in just 22 years
Mar 15th 2018| TOKYO
译者注：我们一般都认为中国建筑的寿命较短，而国外建筑寿命较长。所以前几天读到这篇文章，觉得颇为颠覆原来的印象。由于《经济学人》是知名的严肃期刊，应该不是标题党。所以翻译给大家供参考。
每二十年，日本东海岸伊勢市最神圣的建筑——神庙——就会被推倒并重建一次。这样的仪式被认为会刷新凡人和天神的精神联系。然而，拆除房屋就没有这样神圣的目的了。但是在日本房屋仍然有着类似的短暂预期寿命。(EVERY 20 years in the eastern coastal Japanese city of Ise, the shrine, one of the country’s most venerated, is knocked down and rebuilt. The ritual is believed to refresh spiritual bonds between the people and the gods. Demolishing houses has no such lofty objective. Yet in Japan they have a similarly short life expectancy.)
根据野村证券的资料，日本房屋折旧到零的平均年限不超过22年(这个是和地价分开算的，地价一般可以保值)。大部分房屋此后被推倒并重建。新房子的销售远超过二手房，二手房也经常预期在交易后会被拆除并重建。在美国和欧洲，2017年二手房交易占了90%，而新房只有10%。而在日本则恰恰相反。(According to Nomura, a brokerage, the value of the average Japanese house depreciates to zero in 22 years. (It is calculated separately from the land, which is more likely to hold its value.) Most are knocked down and rebuilt. Sales of new homes far outstrip those of used ones, which usually change hands in the expectation that they will be demolished and replaced. In America and Europe second-hand houses accounted for 90% of sales and new-builds for 10% in 2017. In Japan the proportions are the other way around.)
日本房屋快速贬值的部分原因是由于传统。在很多国家，人们结婚后买房，有了孩子会搬到大一些的房子，或者退休后搬到小一些的房子。而日本人希望一辈子住在一个地方。这是基于日本是一个农业民族的历史习惯，当年农民们必须这样。结果，日本人从不习惯住在二手房里面。(The reasons for Japanese houses’ rapid loss of value lie partly in tradition. In many countries people buy when they pair off, when they move to a bigger place after they have children or when they downsize on retirement. Japanese people have tended to see out all life’s stages in the same dwelling, a custom they attribute to their history as a farming nation, when they had to stay put. As a result, they never got used to second-hand homes.)
频繁发生的地震是另外一个原因。巨大的地震经常伴随着更加严格的建筑法规。许多民众希望住在根据最新标准建设的房子里面。历史同样有助于形成这样的习惯：在二战期间，东京等数十个城市被美国人的炸弹夷为平地。而后人口迅速增加，数量需求远超过质量的需求。大型预制建筑商，例如Daiwa House(大和屋业)，持续到今天，每年推出新的建筑类型。就像买车一样，人民希望升级到新款。(The frequency of earthquakes also plays a part. Large tremors tend to be followed by tougher building regulations. Many people want to live in a home built to the most recent standards. History also helped to form habits. During the second world war dozens of cities, including Tokyo, had been flattened by American bombs. The population then was growing fast. Quantity was valued over quality. Big prefab manufacturers, such as Daiwa House, survive to this day, bringing out new models every year that, as with cars, people aspire to upgrade to.)
一位粗心的房东(One careless owner)
在一个衰退的循环中，房屋预期会贬值，因此不会被维护。因此，二手房经常是肮脏和失望的。日本人同样对“凶宅”避之不及，因为，前一位住户自杀或者附近住着邪教徒。房产中介Noriko Kagami说，在日本“‘老的’和‘好的’这两个词不会同时出现”，她把她自己买的房子也给推倒重建了。(In a vicious cycle, houses are expected to depreciate and are therefore not maintained, so second-hand homes are often dingy and depressing. Japanese people also shun wake-ari bukken, buildings “stigmatised” because, say, a former resident committed suicide there or a cult resides nearby. “In Japan, the words old and charming do not go together,” says Noriko Kagami, an estate agent (who tore down a house she bought herself).)
考虑到老房子价值几乎跌倒了零，意料之中银行业更乐意为新房子发贷款。长期以来，政府政策是解决住房短缺问题，进一步扭曲了购房者的意图。野村证券的Daisuke Fukushima说，改造房屋不会有税收减免，因为物业税是基于价值的。买新房需要支付相当于房价0.4%的产权登记费。而产权变更需要支付2%。(Unsurprisingly, given the speed at which the value of houses falls to nothing, banks are more willing to offer loans for new places. Government policy, long aimed at resolving a housing shortage, further skews housebuyers’ incentives. It is not tax-efficient to improve a house, says Daisuke Fukushima of Nomura, since property taxes are based on value. Someone who buys a new-build must pay 0.4% of its value to register ownership. Registering a change of ownership costs 2%.)
建造商和装修公司在这种快速的房屋循环中收益颇丰。但是从长远来说这是浪费。Toyo大学Chie Nozawa将这个和刀耕火种相类比，Meikai大学的房地产部Yasuhiko Nakajo说，“我们并不在建造财富。”(Construction and home-fitting companies benefit from this speedy housing cycle. But in the longer term is it wasteful. Chie Nozawa of Toyo University compares it to slash-and-burn farming. “We are not building wealth,” says Yasuhiko Nakajo, who leads the property department at Meikai University.)
随着吃饭的嘴巴数量的增加，刀耕火种至少有短期的效益。由于曾经急迫需要增加房屋数量，形成了日本用后即扔的住房文化，在当前人口衰减阶段毫无意义。日本目前有大约一千万栋废弃建筑，到2033年，这一数字将增加到两千万栋。(When the number of mouths to feed is growing, slash-and-burn at least makes short-term sense. But Japan’s throwaway housing culture, shaped by a once-urgent need to house growing numbers, makes no sense now that the population is shrinking. The country currently has an estimated 10m abandoned homes, a number that is expected to rise above 20m by 2033.)
这个给整个邻里社区带来了麻烦：一个被抛弃的房屋拉低了周边房屋的价格。这同样使得庞大的战后一代的财富传承变得复杂化。一个一文不值的房屋不能出售，用作房东在养老院或看护医院的费用，也不能作为遗产继承。(That is a problem for entire neighbourhoods: a derelict lot drags down the value of nearby houses. It also complicates the transfer of wealth from the big post-war generation. A house that is worth nothing cannot be sold to pay for an assisted-living apartment or a place in a nursing home, or handed on as an inheritance.)
政府开始迟缓的修改其政策，政府设定将2020年二手房交易的数字比十年前翻一翻，并且在2013年加强房屋检测系统。下个月开始，房产中介将必须提供物业买家更多的信息，包括公布任何检测结果。但是，即便如此，很多问题还是不清楚，包括检测信息的有效期有多久，或者卖家是否在销售时撒了谎，没有告知房屋的缺陷。(The government has, belatedly, started to rethink its policies. It set itself the target of doubling the number of used-housing sales in 2020 compared with ten years earlier, and is strengthening a home-surveying system introduced in 2013. From next month estate agents will have to give prospective buyers more information, including disclosing the results of any inspection. Much still remains unclear, though, including how long the results of a survey will remain valid, and whether the seller will be liable for defects that were not disclosed during the sale.)
政府同样在考虑是否在购买空置房屋的时候减税。一些区域为废弃房屋的买家提供激励措施，包括经济援助和更低的税收。(The government is also considering reducing the taxes associated with buying a home if it is currently vacant. Some regions are offering incentives to buyers of abandoned homes, including financial aid and lower taxes.)
银行也变得渐渐乐于给二手房提供房贷。一些房屋公司开始提供翻新服务。Motoazabu Hills，一个位于东京中心区的漂亮的出租公寓转手时，新的房主决定重新内部装修，而不是拆了重建。AERA杂志最近发布了一个指南，用于指导购买保值物业。它的建议之一是在一个有很多20岁到30岁女士（生育年龄）的地区置业。(Banks are becoming a little more forthcoming with loans for second-hand housing. Some housing companies are starting to offer renovation and refurbishment services. When Motoazabu Hills, a posh building of rented apartments in central Tokyo, recently changed hands, the new owner decided to gut and redo the interiors rather than knock the whole thing down. AERA, a magazine, recently published a guide to buying property that will retain its value. Among its tips was to buy in an area that is home to lots of women in their 20s and 30s (ie, of childbearing age).)
所有这些努力获得了一些成功，在一些城市，很多人租房而不是购房，并且更经常搬家。Nakajo先生说：“我们进入了一个新时代，人们开始考虑二手房”。在2017年，东京创纪录的销售了37329个二手公寓，比十年前增加了31%。但是，除非Nakajo先生提出的“20年思维模式”发生改变，否则人们还是青睐新的房屋。(All this is having some success. In the cities a larger share of people now rent than own places, and move more often. “We are entering a stage where people are starting to see a used home as an option,” says Mr Nakajo. In 2017 a record 37,329 second-hand flats were sold in Tokyo, a 31% increase on ten years earlier. Yet until what Mr Nakajo dubs the “20-year-mentality” changes, the preference for shiny and new will remain.)
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