Top 30 container lines: European and Asian carriers square up to each other
Janet Porter (Editor-in-chife of Lloyd’s List Containers
徐剑华 摘译编辑
且看目前雄踞世界前三大的欧洲巨头，马士基航运的总部所在地丹麦和地中海航运的总部所在地——内陆国家瑞士都不是大出口国；即使达飞轮船所在的法国，其货源生成量还不及中国的一个零头。
中远海运收购东方海外之后实力大增，未来两三年内肯定取代达飞而成为世界第三大承运商，从而一举打破二十几年来欧洲巨头霸占集运三强位子的状态。在坊间口耳相传的一个窃窃私语说，家族传承的新加坡太平船务将成为中远海运的下一个收购标的，
曾经雄踞世界最大承运商宝座的台湾长荣张荣发的后人是继续把航运业务发扬光大呢，还是和香港一代船王董浩云的后人一样把祖产一卖了之？或者是收购“准国企”阳明海运？
除了新合并的“日本神运”ONE，新崛起的亚洲新星还有韩国的高丽海运（KMTC）和森罗海运（SM Line）、中国海丰国际（SITC）和伊朗国航（IRISL）。
“大将生来胆气豪，腰横秋水雁翎刀”。在中远海运的率领下，中国大陆、日本、台湾、韩国等亚洲承运商正蓄势待发，准备格斗，冲击欧洲三巨头霸占的行业领头羊地位、话语权和规则制订权。
Is Cosco Shipping positioning itself to end European dominance of thecontainer shipping industry?
Currently at number four in terms of fleet capacity, COSCO's purchase of OOCLwill push it into the top three, long held by European lines Maersk, Msc and CMACGM.
THE number of truly global container lines continues to shrink, with somefamiliar names missing from the latest rankings.
But there are many more changes still to come, with the 2018 list of topcarriers likely to look very different from the 2017 table, which, at firstglance, does not seem all that different from the 2016 rankings.
The four largest lines in terms of fleet capacity remain the same — MaerskLine, Mediterranean Shipping Co, CMA CGM and Cosco Shipping.
Evergreen, once number one in the world, has slipped down another rung,Hapag-Lloyd has gained a spot, and Hamburg Süd has dropped back.
So this hardly looks like the great shake-up that has dominated theheadlines for the past couple of years.
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That is because much of the consolidation that is condensing containershipping into just a handful of industry heavyweights is still a work inprogress. In the meantime, the industry has consolidated into three globalvessel-sharing agreements — 2M, the Ocean Alliance and The Alliance — withthe latter two inaugurating services in April.
Three into ONE
Probably the most ambitious merger now under way involves the threeJapanese lines, MOL, NYK and K Line, which arebeing combined in to Ocean Network Express, a line that will rank number six inthe world in terms of fleet capacity when it introduces services next April.For now, the three lines are continuing to operate separately, and are ranked9th, 11th and 15th respectively in the latest listings produced by Alphaliner.
More change will involve OOCL, now numberseven in the world, which is in the process of being acquired by CoscoShipping in a move that will elevate the Chinese powerhouseinto the world’s top three, at least in the short-term and depending on hownewbuilding activity changes the order in years to come. Cosco Shipping, ofcourse, is already the product of a merger between two Chinese state-ownedcarriers, Cosco and China Shipping.
Another line set to lose its independence is Hamburg Süd, which islikely to be formally taken over by Maersk before the end of the year, onceregulatory clearances have been obtained. The Danish line has promised toretain the brand, but the takeover removes another prominent player from thetop 10 that has already seen a number of names disappear from the premierleague over the past few years.
In 2016, United Arab Shipping Co was the world’s 10th largest carrier.Now, it has gone, through its merger with Hapag-Lloyd, which had alreadyswallowed up Chilean line CSAV.
Another line that still featured in the top 20 last year was HanjinShipping, which collapsed in August 2016 and has now gone from the sceneentirely.
New entrant
But a South Korean newcomer has emerged from that bankruptcy, SM Line, which makesits debut at number 29.
Other lines that find themselves moving up the rankings, not through anyexpansion strategy but because some others have dropped out altogether, includeZim, which has climbed up from number 16 at the end of October 2016, to 13 thisyear, Singapore’s Pacific International Lines, which hasmoved up from 14th spot to 12th, and Taiwanese carrier Wan Hai that has risen from17th to 16th place. Another climber is X-Press Feeders, up from 18 to 17 in thelistings.
Mind the gap
But what is clear from the fleet numbers is the huge gap now opening upbetween the top six and the rest of the industry, a gulf that looks set to widenfurther as the industry settles down into a handful of lines that are genuinelyglobal, another tier of large regional players, and then feeder or shortseaoperators.
The container shipping industry continues to be dominated by threeEuropean lines, all in family control, and setting the agenda in many ways.
Maersk, which remainsthe world’s largest containership operator with an owned and chartered fleet ofmore than 3.5m teu, compared with 3.2m teu a year earlier, and a still sizeableorderbook, is in the process of integrating its shipping, ports, and forwardingoperations into a single transport and logistics business designed to maximisesynergies between the three activities.
Scale will be boosted by the imminent takeover of north-south specialistHamburg Süd, which also has strong presence in the reefer trades.
At the same time, AP Moller-Maersk is withdrawing from energy-related activitiesin order to allow top management to concentrate on one core business.
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MSC, which has grownits container fleet organically rather than through corporate acquisitions, hasstuck to that tried and tested formula, investing in tonnage instead ofcompanies. The Geneva-based line owned by the Aponte family recently placed anorder for 11 ships of 22,000 teu capacity in a move that should help it retainits position as the world number two, with a current fleet of close to 3.2m teuand an orderbook equivalent to 12% of its existing capacity. A year earlier,MSC’s fleet stood at 2.8m teu.
Third-ranked CMA CGM is benefitingconsiderably from its takeover of Singapore line APL that was finalised inmid-2016, and which has now returned to profit under its new ownership. TheFrench line is also in the process of buying South American carrier Mercosulfrom Maersk, which had to dispose of it as a condition of its Hamburg Südtakeover, as well as purchasing a majority stake in Pacific Islands specialistSofrana.
CMA CGM is also selling a majority interest in its Los Angeles terminalGlobal Gateway South, and was the first to order the new class of 22,000 teuships, to be built in China.
The Saadé-controlled line has seen fleet capacity rise from 2.2m teu to2.5m teu over the year, but there is a question mark over what happens next.Turkish investor Robert Yildirim still owns a 24% share of CMA CGM, but hassaid he wants to sell in order to fund ports investments.
At the same time, CMA CGM will lose its position as the biggest member ofthe Ocean Alliance, once Cosco Shipping has completed its $6.3bn takeover ofHong Kong’s OOCL.
New world order?
Many think it is now just a matter of time before Cosco Shipping starts tochallenge for the top spot.
The fact that European lines dominate the industry is something of ananomaly now, considering that neither Denmark, where Maersk is headquartered,nor landlocked Switzerland, where MSC’s head office is located, are big exportcountries. And even CMA CGM’s home country France hardly compares with China interms of cargo interests.
The acquisition of OOCL will give Cosco a huge leg-up in the industry,while there are constant whispers that family-owned PIL could be next in linefor a takeover approach from China.
Then there is Evergreen, and where next for the line that was once numberone in the world and challenging the European shipping establishment withround-the-world services, and other innovations. Will the sons of the lateChang Yung-fa start to get more actively involved in the Taiwan line or decideto sell up? Will Evergreen eventually absorb state-controlled Yang Ming, whichwould greatly strengthen their respective positions?
And what of Israeli line Zim? Will it be able to continue with itsglobal-niche strategy, concentrating on a few deepsea routes where it has astrong market share, or be forced to give up its independence — that is if abuyer or partner could be found?
The outcome of this unprecedented round of consolidation is to elevateoperators that have barely changed their fleet sizes or ambitions into the top20 — those such as South Korean line KMTC and Hong Kong’s SITC, while Iran’sIRISL is just outside. Others, too, will be promoted next year as the threeJapanese lines disappear, to be replaced by ONE, and both OOCL and Hamburg Südare removed from the list.
So that could mean carriers such as Turkey’s Arkas Line becoming a top 20player.
But it is the battle at the top that will be the real showstopper. WillEuropean lines be able to retain their dominance, or will Asian carriers fromChina, Japan, Taiwan and even South Korea, assert themselves as the masters ofthis new universe that is unfolding?
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