Based on just about every other bear market, this rally is getting long in the tooth.
Compared to the great bear market of the 30s, we're right on schedule for a fall
By aligning this bear with the trough, we're due for a long grind sideways.
Based on the Nikkei, we're again, right on time for a big fall
A further look at the 30s shows that the next stage is a long sideways grinding market.
A longer look at 1928-1942 again reveals the same pattern.
The shape of these last two years, compared to 37-39 is remarkably similar.
The move from 1900-1925 is remarkably similar, with its long grind sideways
Same with 1973-1982
Meanwhile, volatility has become elevated, meaning under tradition asset allocation models it's time to pare back
The TED spread -- a measure of bank confidence -- continues to climb higher
BONUS: The recent rally in the 10-year is perfectly timed for another major stock market reversal.
BONUS: A detailed comparison if the NASDAQ and the NIKKEI Part I (see next slide)
BONUS: If the NASDAQ is Nikkei redux, it's heading to 800.
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