By Graham Hawkes
Despite bitter opposition from environmentalists, the petrol-engined car is likely still to be king-of-the-road around the world in 20 years from now—and there will be millions more cars on the planet than there are now.T
In Britain alone, the car population will increase by more than 50 per cent over the years to 2015, when there will be a total of 50 million vehicles on British roads. Increases in road traffic in countries such as China will be even more dramatic, as new mass markets develop.T
Electric and gas-powered vehicles will become a reasonably common sight, particularly in big cities and among public service fleets, and car engines will be more efficient and cleaner than they are now.T
Most cars will still be built from steel, although smaller and more efficient cars will be encouraged, probably through subsidies and preferential tax rates. Some cities will introduce smaller car parking bays on their streets and others may ban bigger cars altogether. Many inner-city areas will become off limits to all cars, and cities will probably increase dramatically the cost of parking within city limits.* T 
Many countries will ask car buyers to prove they have somewhere suitable to park their vehicle, and introduce "smart highway" systems to direct cars much as air traffic controllers now look after the flight of aeroplanes.T 
However, despite a dramatic call from environmentalists for radical changes in the way cars are designed and built, a survey of international car manufactures by a British research company foresees a continuation of current trends—a move towards more efficient petrol-engined cars, a slight upswing in the use of diesel cars, and a gradual move to electric and gas-powered cars.T
The Warranty Holdings Group, a European leader in mechanical breakdown insurance and a researcher and commentator on trend in motoring, says that the motorists' world 20 years from now will be marked by more cars, more choice and more technology. Built-in safety features will increase and will include night-vision and collision-avoidance systems, and monitoring devices to stop drivers falling asleep at the wheel.T
A growth in tele-working and home shopping should cut the numbers of trips in a car made by most motorists and "fun" sportscars will become more popular as private motoring becomes more recreational in nature.T
The survey results show that despite years of research into alternative fuel sources for vehicles, no clear winner has emerged for a replacement for the conventional petrol-engined car.* Gas and electricity are the best possibilities, with Toyota's design division in Japan claiming it already has an electric car that will drive up to 250km on a single charge.T 
However, while electric and "hybrid" powered vehicles will be far more in evidence in the future, it will take a major technological break-through to steer the car industry away from its current path of gradual improvements to the petrol-driven internal combustion engine.T
Professor Garel Rhys, of the Cardiff Business School in Wales, is a leading commentator on the global motor industry. He says engine fuel injection systems of the future will be far more frugal than anything that exists at the moment. "It will be like putting a pipette of petrol into the cylinders, rather than just throwing it in by the bucket load, which is almost what we do at the moment when you compare it with what could be possible." T 
Some environmentalists point to the Twingo, the small car developed by France's Renault company, to show what could be achieved by the world's car industry if it moved away from a trend towards bigger and more powerful cars and radically cut the fuel consumption of its products. Public opinion polls in many countries show motorists wanting access to this kind of environmentally-aware car.* T
A prototype environmental car, the SmILE (smaller, intelligent, lighter, efficient) has been put together by the environmental group Greenpeace. The group hopes the concept will catch on.* It depends heavily on supercharging or forcing fuel mixture into the cylinders at higher than normal pressure. Some experts say this is a good way to extract high performance and high fuel efficiency from small engines.T
The adaptations to the Twingo don't end with the engine.* Changes to the bodywork and chassis have improved aerodynamics by 30 per cent in the wind tunnel. Special lightweight rims and tyres have improved rolling resistance by 35 per cent. More than 196kg of weight was trimmed off the Twingo by the smaller engine and a lighter radiator, battery and exhaust system, as well as by changes in construction of the seats, suspension, brakes and petrol tank. Greenpeace believes another 80kg could be trimmed from the car's weight by a comprehensive rebuilding of the body of a car like Twingo, using fibre composites, without affecting the vehicle's safety standards. While glass fibre and carbon fibre reinforced plastic parts were used for the more aerodynamic body parts, the SmILE designers say they were built in such a way that using steel would make no difference to the total weight.T 
Cutting the fuel consumption has had no negative effect on the handling or performance of the car,* according to the designers. Top speed, flexibility and acceleration from the engine is as good or better than the original Twingo. They say the technology used to create the Twingo SmILE could just as easily be used on other brands of car.T
What remains to be seen is whether the enthusiasm of environmental designers catches on with the dollar-driven international car industry,* and whether motorists back up with their chequebooks their desire for "greener" cars.T
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